December 2021

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There have been a few surprises so far since mid-November….remember the “unanimous” predictions for a very cold and snowy end of November through mid-late December? Then there was predictions of a major SSW, SPV split and a record weak SPV for December?……we have anything but a record weak SPV right now: 

 

November finished below normal at all the climate stations 

[binbisso]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Newark has now reached 66. The old record was 65, which was set in 1966 and tied in 1971.

 Central Park is probably next which is a little surprising since most reporting stations in the  boroughs are still in the fifties except for Staten Island

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

November finished below normal at all the climate stations 

ewr was .1, cdw .7

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

ewr was .1, cdw .7

Blowtorch 

[binbisso]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

ewr was .1, cdw .7

 Yeah but that region in northeast New Jersey should be in the southern mid Atlantic since their climate is closer to Virginia Beach.  That area is warmer than philly through New York including Trenton and Eastern PA

[Rjay]

MMU into the low 60s

 

[Allsnow]

Bdr -1.7 

Nyc -1.8 sensor covered by leaf pile 

JFK -0.5

Lga -0.3

Teteboro -2.6

 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Central Park is probably next which is a little surprising since most reporting stations in the  boroughs are still in the fifties except for Staten Island

It really depends where the warm air is pushing. Usually LGA and JFK respond fairly quickly. Elsewhere, Boston rose 14 degrees in the past hour from 47 to 61.

[Rjay]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Bdr -1.7 

Nyc -1.8 sensor covered by leaf pile 

JFK -0.5

Lga -0.3

Teteboro -2.6

 

Made me crack up 

[nycwinter]

does not look like the park will tie or break a very old high temp record today

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

does not look like the park will tie or break a very old high temp record today

1 more degree

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

does not look like the park will tie or break a very old high temp record today

They have a few more hours to break it. 

[bluewave]

Record tie for NYC and new record at EWR.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
319 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 WAS TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1879.

AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
313 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1971.

AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.

[SnoSki14]

Tornado threat later on?

[Rjay]

26 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

does not look like the park will tie or break a very old high temp record today

 

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record tie for NYC and new record at EWR.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
319 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 WAS TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1879.

AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
313 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1971.

AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.

These 2 posts being 11 minutes apart is super impressive 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i thought that month didn't count

Hahahahaha what a burn. Was going to come back to bite at some point 

[RippleEffect]

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tornado threat later on?

i honestly believe it, look at this dreary weather it usually spells thunderstorms and or tornadoes!

[donsutherland1]

NWS New York NY

 

@NWSNewYorkNY

·

16m

 

Central Park has also broken the high temperature record for 12/11 with a 65° reading. This breaks the old record of 64° that was set in 1879. #NYCwx #NYwx

[LoboLeader1]

56 here currently

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There have been a few surprises so far since mid-November….remember the “unanimous” predictions for a very cold and snowy end of November through mid-late December? Then there was predictions of a major SSW, SPV split and a record weak SPV for December?……we have anything but a record weak SPV right now: 

 

In the longer range the polar vortex is expected to stop deepening and start weakening. It’s ok if it’s strong now, if it’s still strong mid January then we have a problem.

[the_other_guy]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Hahahahaha what a burn. Was going to come back to bite at some point 

It’s stupid childish behavior.

The first instance I never said 2015 didn’t count… I said that because it was so high, it skewed the decade average and a median would show a better picture of decade wide trends.

 

Today I pointed out that we had a record week in December and this week isn’t going to be anywhere close to it despite posters yearning for a headline.

 

Both very valid points.

 

But you two guys pretend that you are in junior high school reading a Snaps books and throwing around emojis.

I don’t get burned or feel burned when I present factual information.

 

 

[nycwinter]

49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

1 more degree

the weather device i am using for nyc says 59 degrees yet the nws site says 64 clearly the device i am using is putting out faulty data..

[donsutherland1]

Just now, nycwinter said:

the weather device i am using for nyc says 59 degrees yet the nws site says 64 clearly the device i am using is putting out faulty data..

Phone apps, if this is an app, may not necessarily use the Central Park reading.

[weathermedic]

65 at my station now. Impressive even with the southerly wind off the water.

[dWave]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

does not look like the park will tie or break a very old high temp record today

It was always going to be a late high temp, sometime after sunset. Temps here have taken off since 4pm, mid 50s to low 60s in 20 mins

[bluewave]

Record high of 67° so far at Newark.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0437 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1966 AND 1971.

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

November finished below normal at all the climate stations 

It did yes, but the late November through mid-late December very cold/snowy prediction has been a bust as has the very weak SPV prediction 

[donsutherland1]

Some photos from this morning’s passage of the warm front:

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It did yes, but the late November through mid-late December very cold/snowy prediction has been a bust as has the very weak SPV prediction 

But none of the actual weather models were forecasting anything remotely close to some of those Twitter forecasts. While the models always had a slightly colder than normal November, at no point did they have a heavy November snowstorm signal like we got in 2012 or 2018. The first week of December was forecast to be warm in the West and a little cooler than normal in the Northeast. But the ridge expanded further east and our area was warmer. The much above average warmth for Mid-December forecast is right on track. 

[donsutherland1]

Although it was mostly cloudy throughout the region, daily record high temperatures were matched or broken in many parts of the region. Those records included some dusty 19th century antique marks. Record temperatures through 7 pm included:

Allentown: 63° (old record: 61°, 1952 and 1979)
Atlanta: 75° (tied record set in 2007)
Baltimore: 70° (old record: 66°, 1971)
Buffalo: 67° (old record: 61°, 1899)
Harrisburg: 68° (old record: 63°, 1897)
New York City-LGA: 67° (old record: 62°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 66° (old record: 64°, 1879)
Newark: 68° (old record: 65°, 1966 and 1971)
Philadelphia: 68° (old record: 65°, 1899 and 1971)
Poughkeepsie: 64° (old record: 63°, 1966)
Rochester: 64° (tied record set in 2015)
Scranton: 64° (tied record set in 1979)
Syracuse: 64° (old record: 62°, 1979)
Toronto: 64° (old record: 56°, 1979)
Trenton: 65° (tied record set in 1911)
Washington, DC: 70° (old record: 68°, 1897, 1971 and 1979)
Wilmington, DE: 67° (old record: 66°, 1971)
Wilmington, NC: 80° (old record: 79°, 2007)

Baltimore's 70° temperature was that city's record 189th such day. The previous record was 187 days, which was set in 2017.

A cold front will move across the region this evening and tonight. It could bring some heavy showers and thundershowers, damaging winds, and perhaps some hail. This cold front will bring a transient shot of somewhat cooler air to the region. Another warmup is possible beginning next week.

No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future. Overall, through December 20th, there will likely be only some relatively short-lived cool shots. Afterward, the AO could go negative, increasing the opportunity for colder outcomes.

In the Midwest, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall through December 10. Only five prior years saw their first measurable snowfall on December 10 or later:

1. December 20, 2012
2. December 16, 1965
3. December 14, 2001
4. December 12, 1946
5. December 10, 2003

The base case is that the closing 10 days of December could turn cooler, though not necessarily cold. Since 1950, there have been 7 cases where the AO averaged +2.000 or above during the first week in December, as has been the case this year. The mean December 21-31 temperature in New York City was 40.2°. The median temperature was 41.5°. The coldest was 35.3° (1951) and the warmest was 44.0° (1979). In short, this historic experience would suggest that there will be no severe Arctic outbreaks in the East this month. It also suggests that New York City will likely have an average temperature of 40° or above this month.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +14.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.368 today

On December 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.539 (RMM). The December 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.194 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.4° (3.3° above normal).