December 2021

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NYC10023 said:

I remember doing last minute Christmas shopping that day and sweating my *** off 

I think dewpoints were in the 60s

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I don’t think that - EPO or a -NAO will matter for us as long as the the big -PNA trough remains near the West Coast. It keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe the weeklies update later will have some more information. But you can see the latest GEFS is stubbornly holding onto that -PNA trough. 
 

Looks like the Niña/+GLAAM MJO phase 7 composite. The SPV hype has no basis either, there is no evidence of a warming or split and it continues to remain very strong. 

This illustrates your point further: 

 

[Allsnow]

-epo continues to move up in time on the ensembles. The Pv looks to take a hit around that time which might allow for a -nao. It will take time but after next week’s blowtorch I do see some positive signs 

[Allsnow]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like the Niña/+GLAAM MJO phase 7 composite. The SPV hype has no basis either, there is no evidence of a warming or split and it continues to remain very strong. 

This illustrates your point further: 

 

It’s going to take a major hit but will probably regain strength after that. It that wave 2 hit is true, it could help improve the pattern for cold/nao

[nycwinter]

unusual chilly morning today one of the rare days when you had to button you:re coat..

[Allsnow]

Next week still looks mild but the 70’s talk might be a stretch. The weekend is now looking to be the warmest on the models. The highest temperature next week at nyc is the upper 50’s

[forkyfork]

take the way over on thursday easily 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Upper mid west and upper Great Lakes certainly have not missed out on winter this month. Parts of upper Michigan have received 2-4 ft. of snow and International Falls Minnesota reached -15 and -16 this week. Minneapolis expecting a snowstorm tomorrow. The cold wintry weather barely making it across the Canadian border.

Typical of Nina winters. The upper Midwest is usually favored for big winters then along with the Northwest. 

[BucksCO_PA]

5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I can't remember the last time lakes and ponds in Union County NJ froze solid enough to skate on.

A little dramatic, 4 years ago is a little while but it's not back in the Ming dynasty 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, BucksCO_PA said:

A little dramatic, 4 years ago is a little while but it's not back in the Ming dynasty 

December 2017 into January 2018 was our last real stretch of artic cold temperatures 

[RedSky]

Lakes and ponds froze here last February a solid winter month.

 

[bluewave]

The 850 mb temperatures would support 70° on Saturday in NJ if we can get enough sun.

 

 

[North and West]

A little dramatic, 4 years ago is a little while but it's not back in the Ming dynasty 

Weren’t we below freezing for more than two weeks? Am I remembering that correctly?


.

[Allsnow]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 850 mb temperatures would support 70° on Saturday in NJ if we can get enough sun.

 

 

Euro says no for nyc 

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro says no for nyc 

the models consistently don't show warm enough sfc temps in these situations

[Allsnow]

Eps and GEFS agree on the -nao/-epo combo but that -pna is going to be a problem 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps and GEFS agree on the -nao/-epo combo but that -pna is going to be a problem 

Gradient pattern 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gradient pattern 

Ehhh, maybe. Would really need that nao kick back the se ridge 

[Allsnow]

Looks like the high was 37 at nyc? That would be below the forecast high of 39

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ehhh, maybe. Would really need that nao kick back the se ridge 

A negative NAO and negative epo would do the trick .

[bluewave]

The 12z EPS keeps the -PNA trough near the West Coast through Dec 24th.This pumps up the SE Ridge.The -EPO ridge is centered too far west near the Aleutians and the -NAO is too far east based near Europe. 
 

12z EPS for 12z Dec 24th

 

[SnoSki14]

LR still looks like crap. The only good thing is the very positive EPO goes away. 

Strong Atlantic blocking would do wonders in this pattern. Maybe it won't be a 2015 blowtorch but it still sucks. 

I think we'll get a favorable period in Jan and then March like 2018 though nowhere as severe. 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

LR still looks like crap. The only good thing is the very positive EPO goes away. 

Strong Atlantic blocking would do wonders in this pattern. Maybe it won't be a 2015 blowtorch but it still sucks. 

I think we'll get a favorable period in Jan and then March like 2018 though nowhere as severe. 

 

2015 was a straight up monster SE ridge which other than I think 2 periods of 3 days never moved..this is more in line with other top 10 Decembers which in most of the eastern US climo sites are all bunched up between 84-01-06-82-90 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

A negative NAO and negative epo would do the trick .

You can have a -NAO and a SE ridge at the same time, I’ve seen folks say they can’t co-exist but that’s nonsense. It’s very possible and has happened many times before. That severely -PNA along with the SE ridge flex is going to be an issue. It might be a “gradient” pattern for New England…..

[EasternLI]

I think ensembles are slowly coming around to the phase 7 la Niña look. I suspect the NAO look on ensembles right now is actually an atlantic ridge, similar to that composite, but spread is smearing that into the NAO domain. Any real -NAO wouldn't be until after the ball drops IMO. It's a slow moving mjo wave. I feel like any sooner progression would be too fast. Gefs is a little faster than eps. I'm thinking the eps has the better idea with the timing here. It's the very end of the 12z eps where the changes are just beginning. That makes some sense to me. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 12z EPS keeps the -PNA trough near the West Coast through Dec 24th.This pumps up the SE Ridge.The -EPO ridge is centered too far west near the Aleutians and the -NAO is too far east based near Europe. 
 

12z EPS for 12z Dec 24th

 

We need to start seeing changes (moving up in time) somewhere and this is a start….I’ll take a -epo and East based block and roll it forward from there…

[tmagan]

Last December with widespread negative seven degree monthly anomalies in the Northeast: 2000.

[TheManWithNoFace]

18 hours ago, Rjay said:

I tried finding it but the search function is a disaster on here.  @bluewavehas this info.

@bluewave can you help me out? Please and thank you. 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

Hey everyone I need some help. Many months ago someone posted a chart of annual mean dewpoints at a local observation station over the last several years, if I recall correctly. I need to find that or something similar. Can anyone help?

Just select the station and time of year.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We need to start seeing changes (moving up in time) somewhere and this is a start….I’ll take a -epo and East based block and roll it forward from there…

I agree with you there and I’m not sure where this “SSW”, “SPV split” hype on twitter is coming from, there’s zero evidence of either, it’s clearly a fairy tale…in fact the stratosphere is really ugly right now and may get worse, it’s starting to couple into the troposphere in fact….