December 2021

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and cold. Some flurries are possible in parts of the region. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 42°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 43°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 46.4°; 15-Year: 47.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.0°; 15-Year: 48.8°

Following another cool day, milder air will begin to return on Friday. Near record or perhaps even record warmth is possible in parts of the region on Saturday.

[the_other_guy]

55 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Its not as easy as it sounds.  Costs about one million dollars per miles to bury existing lines.  All new developments get underground.   Burying existing ones means roads cut up, side walks, yards etc...After that, then you have to do all services underground, electric, cable, Internet to houses and businesses.   

One of my old jobs, we were putting in new gas and electric lines underground for a developer.  Nothing around except dirt, so no risk of hitting everything.  Its all shale here.  We got 1500 feet down in 10 hours.  Now imagine doing this in developed areas. The process would be Alot slower. The same Karen's would complain about traffic and/or road closures.

 

Live on a mountain where power goes out a few times a year?  Buy a generator, be prepared.  

It’s funny my block is all below ground because it was built in the 80s and 90s via blasting into a steep rock. But it connects to roads and houses built in the 40s and that’s where all the power is fed from… above ground.

You are only as good as your weakest point.

 

33F this morning

[uofmiami]

19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It’s funny my block is all below ground because it was built in the 80s and 90s via blasting into a steep rock. But it connects to roads and houses built in the 40s and that’s where all the power is fed from… above ground.

You are only as good as your weakest point.

 

33F this morning

I’m underground utilities too but have a whole house generator since the power above ground outside my street will have issues if a hurricane or strong storm takes down trees.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We need to get rid of that -PNA trough near the West Coast to see improvements after Christmas. 

 

Not a great look, but unlike 2011/2012 we will at least have cold on our side of the globe, which can allow for weak trailing waves to give us lite to moderate snowfalls.

Has Central Park ever been held to under one inch of snow for a winter season? Don't think it's ever happened here in SW CT (lowest I ever recorded was 3.5 in 97/98 I believe).

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not a great look, but unlike 2011/2012 we will at least have cold on our side of the globe, which can allow for weak trailing waves to give us lite to moderate snowfalls.

Has Central Park ever been held to under one inch of snow for a winter season? Don't think it's ever happened here in SW CT (lowest I ever recorded was 3.5 in 97/98 I believe).

The only DJF winter season to go under 1” at NYC was 1997-1998. But my guess is that it was another quality control issue for the Park since LGA and EWR had more. So they probably waited too after the snow ended to measure the snow and some of it melted. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1997-1998	0.5	0
2	1918-1919	1.1	0
3	1972-1973	2.6	0
4	1931-1932	2.7	0
5	1991-1992	3.2	0
6	2001-2002	3.5	0
7	2018-2019	3.7	0
8	2011-2012	4.5	0
9	2019-2020	4.8	0
10	1989-1990	5.0	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1972-1973	1.3	0
2	1991-1992	2.5	0
3	2011-2012	3.6	0
-	2001-2002	3.6	0
-	1997-1998	3.6	0
4	1930-1931	4.1	62
5	1988-1989	4.8	0
6	1931-1932	5.3	0
7	1937-1938	5.6	0
-	1936-1937	5.6	0
8	2018-2019	5.7	0
-	1989-1990	5.7	0
9	2019-2020	6.9	0
10	1998-1999	7.3	0
-	1941-1942	7.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1972-1973	1.9	0
2	1997-1998	2.3	0
3	1941-1942	3.1	0
4	2001-2002	3.3	0
5	2011-2012	3.4	0
6	2018-2019	3.6	0
7	1991-1992	4.1	0
8	2019-2020	4.6	0
9	1955-1956	5.9	0
10	1958-1959	6.0	0

[nyrangers1022]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

It’s funny my block is all below ground because it was built in the 80s and 90s via blasting into a steep rock. But it connects to roads and houses built in the 40s and that’s where all the power is fed from… above ground.

You are only as good as your weakest point.

 

33F this morning

Were the houses there first with above ground utilities? Or were the houses built in the 80s and 90s first, with the utilities already buried. I stated all new developments are getting underground utilities 

[dWave]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only DJF winter season to go under 1” at NYC was 1997-1998. But my guess is that it was another quality control issue for the Park since LGA and EWR had more. So they probably waited to long to measure the snow and some of it melted. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1997-1998	0.5	0
2	1918-1919	1.1	0
3	1972-1973	2.6	0
4	1931-1932	2.7	0
5	1991-1992	3.2	0
6	2001-2002	3.5	0
7	2018-2019	3.7	0
8	2011-2012	4.5	0
9	2019-2020	4.8	0
10	1989-1990	5.0	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1972-1973	1.3	0
2	1991-1992	2.5	0
3	2011-2012	3.6	0
-	2001-2002	3.6	0
-	1997-1998	3.6	0
4	1930-1931	4.1	62
5	1988-1989	4.8	0
6	1931-1932	5.3	0
7	1937-1938	5.6	0
-	1936-1937	5.6	0
8	2018-2019	5.7	0
-	1989-1990	5.7	0
9	2019-2020	6.9	0
10	1998-1999	7.3	0
-	1941-1942	7.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1972-1973	1.9	0
2	1997-1998	2.3	0
3	1941-1942	3.1	0
4	2001-2002	3.3	0
5	2011-2012	3.4	0
6	2018-2019	3.6	0
7	1991-1992	4.1	0
8	2019-2020	4.6	0
9	1955-1956	5.9	0
10	1958-1959	6.0	0

97-98 was the virtually snowless winter until the late March 5" surprise storm, depriving us of the least snowiest season on record. The 0.5" seemed right to me. I had no idea LGA recorded a couple inches. Under such marginal conditions maybe LGA got under a heavy snow band allowing some acclumation or bringing down enough cold for a brief change to snow at some point. The Park can be bad, but 0.5" was a good representation of that winter in the city. I remember seeing no snow acclumation until the late March storm..which melted in the March sun by sunset, and a hot end to March followed if I remember right. That was around the time I started to give up on the city/coast being a snowy place. I took it as the price paid to the snow gods for the epic 95-96 season. Then the 2000s came and everything flipped lol

[Vice-Regent]

Not a great look going forward. The Denver snow hole anomaly is the canary in the coal mine.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

97-98 was the virtually snowless winter until the late March 5" surprise storm, depriving us of the least snowiest season on record. The 0.5" seemed right to me. I had no idea LGA recorded a couple inches. Under such marginal conditions maybe LGA got under a heavy snow band allowing some acclumation or bringing down enough cold for a brief change to snow at some point. The Park can be bad, but 0.5" was a good representation of that winter in the city. I remember seeing no snow acclumation until the late March storm..which melted in the March sun by sunset, and a hot end to March followed if I remember right. That was around the time I started to give up on the city/coast being a snowy place. I took it as the price paid to the snow gods for the epic 95-96 season. Then the 2000s came and everything flipped lol

If you look at the daily snowfall tallies for NYC, EWR, and LGA in December and January 97-98, you will see the common error we often see at Central Park. There were multiple dates when NYC only showed a T but LGA and EWR were 0.2 to 0.5. In recent years we continue to see the same pattern in light events that melt after the snow ends. They wait too long to take the measurements and 0.1 to 0.5s go in as a trace. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Not a great look going forward. The Denver snow hole anomaly is the canary in the coal mine.

There are signs of a better pattern ( hopefully this is real) by the week of Christmas. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We need to get rid of that -PNA trough near the West Coast to see improvements after Christmas. 

 

Its hard for me to believe with that EPO ridge and the Greenland ridge that even with a -PNA the temp departures would be that high...thats a fairly good source region of the air mass

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are signs of a better pattern ( hopefully this is real) by the week of Christmas. 

It can't get much worse.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its hard for me to believe with that EPO ridge and the Greenland ridge that even with a -PNA the temp departures would be that high...thats a fairly good source region of the air mass

Perhaps cutter(s) skewing the over temps?

[CIK62]

A little bit of December 2015 incoming Dec. 10-18, 9 days  50(43/57) = +13.

[winterwx21]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It can't get much worse.

The period from this saturday to the following saturday is gonna be insane. High temps in the 50s and 60s pretty much every day, except for maybe upper 40s on sunday. A few days (this saturday and next thursday and friday) with temps WELL up into the 60s likely too. One of the warmest 1 week periods in mid December history.

[dWave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If you look at the daily snowfall tallies for NYC, EWR, and LGA in December and January 97-98, you will see the common error we often see at Central Park. There were multiple dates when NYC only showed a T but LGA and EWR were 0.2 to 0.5. In recent years we continue to see the same pattern in light events that melt after the snow ends. They wait to long to take the measurements and 0.1 to 0.5s go in as a trace. 

That's true..those fractions of an inch do get lost if you don't measure quickly. It was worse then when the zookeeper was doing the measurements.

That's a benefit of using airports since its a 24/7 operation and even if they care less about meteorology, they have aviation reasons as motivation to keep track of snowfall etc. No one's going out to measure 0.2" in a park at 3am unless you're really passionate about the weather, or you had to be there anyway. 

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that it will begin to turn cooler during the last 10 days of the month, but not severely cold. The PNA looks to stay negative to strongly negative for the foreseeable future. My worry is that the EPO briefly goes negative but then rebounds limiting the opportunity for notable cold (maybe a two week period?) over the next 30 days.

If the new NMME for JFM is correct, your worry will be valid. It has a super ++ EPO and a PAC chinook across the CONUS: 

 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

There are signs of a better pattern ( hopefully this is real) by the week of Christmas. 

I always love your optimism. Meanwhile I’m worried about being able to ski in CT during Christmas week! 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

There are signs of a better pattern ( hopefully this is real) by the week of Christmas. 

That's what DT says

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The period from this saturday to the following saturday is gonna be insane. High temps in the 50s and 60s pretty much every day, except for maybe upper 40s on sunday. A few days (this saturday and next thursday and friday) with temps WELL up into the 60s likely too. One of the warmest 1 week periods in mid December history.

Dec 2015 we hit 60 a dozen times including 71 on Xmas eve. I'm not sure we can top that

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If you look at the daily snowfall tallies for NYC, EWR, and LGA in December and January 97-98, you will see the common error we often see at Central Park. There were multiple dates when NYC only showed a T but LGA and EWR were 0.2 to 0.5. In recent years we continue to see the same pattern in light events that melt after the snow ends. They wait too long to take the measurements and 0.1 to 0.5s go in as a trace. 

@donsutherland1The ensemble’s show a very strong -PNA regime though the entire next 35 day period. Near unanimous support: 

 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, dWave said:

97-98 was the virtually snowless winter until the late March 5" surprise storm, depriving us of the least snowiest season on record. The 0.5" seemed right to me. I had no idea LGA recorded a couple inches. Under such marginal conditions maybe LGA got under a heavy snow band allowing some acclumation or bringing down enough cold for a brief change to snow at some point. The Park can be bad, but 0.5" was a good representation of that winter in the city. I remember seeing no snow acclumation until the late March storm..which melted in the March sun by sunset, and a hot end to March followed if I remember right. That was around the time I started to give up on the city/coast being a snowy place. I took it as the price paid to the snow gods for the epic 95-96 season. Then the 2000s came and everything flipped lol

Wasn’t that the season where the snow kept changing to rain? If so timing for the measurement really is key

[the_other_guy]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dec 2015 we hit 60 a dozen times including 71 on Xmas eve. I'm not sure we can top that

Yeah everybody’s clamoring for a record… But 2015 busted all that. you’re not gonna hit any weekly or monthly record 

 

Not even going to be close. 

 

And as we get closer to the solstice, that week is in the 50s every year now. Almost normal

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Wasn’t that the season where the snow kept changing to rain? If so timing for the measurement really is key

January and February were basically snowless torches with a bunch of rainy noreasters

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Wasn’t that the season where the snow kept changing to rain? If so timing for the measurement really is key

92-93 more so is where that happened a ton.  97-98 we had the storm track and -AO in place most of the winter but it was just too mild for any snow

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1The ensemble’s show a very strong -PNA regime though the entire next 35 day period. Near unanimous support: 

 

This will be a bigger problem in January if it persists. During the second half of December, the AO is more important with regard to the NYC area in terms of temperatures.

[the_other_guy]

The 90s get over shadowed by 94 and 96. A lot of garbage in between though

[Uniblab]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dec 2015 we hit 60 a dozen times including 71 on Xmas eve. I'm not sure we can top that

 

[snowman19]

@bluewave  @donsutherland1 @MJO812This is the big reason to be extremely skeptical of the models showing the MJO propagating into phases 8, 1. In addition to the cold water, you also have extremely strong easterlies from the Niña in those phase areas which would act to shear the wave apart: 

Also, VERY IMPORTANT, MJO phase 7 with -ENSO, +GLAAM is warm in the east with all the cold dumping into the west with the -PNA: 

 

[SnoSki14]

We've seen time and time again how the supposed ENSO state has not played ball with other factors aka deconstructive interference. 

Case in point December should theoretically be the coldest month of a Nina but clearly that won't be the case. 

We'll def have to keep an eye on the EPO/MJO moving forward because they could fail to materialize in a favorable way as we've seen time and time again.