December 2021

[the_other_guy]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December has been the warmest winter departure month over the last decade. It’s  no surprise that the models have corrected so much warmer in recent days. Summer has been extended into fall and fall into early winter.

But if you notice it’s heavily weighted to the eastern half of the country.

I would like to see this chart without the 2015 El Nino in it. That would be a bit more balanced. What was that month? +12F?

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly  cloudy and unseasonably warm. Showers are likely early this morning and again later in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 61°

Newark: 65°

Philadelphia: 66°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.6°; 15-Year: 48.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 49.4°

Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler. A system could bring a coating to 1” of snow to parts of the region on Wednesday.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

But if you notice it’s heavily weighted to the eastern half of the country.

I would like to see this chart without the 2015 El Nino in it. That would be a bit more balanced. What was that month? +12F?

 

 

While December 2015 has been the most extreme expression of the US December warming trend, the composite of the other years since 2011 shows  the same pattern.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The warming of December temperatures is also well-reflected in the number of 40-degree Decembers. Since 1869, there have been 22 such cases. 11 have occurred since 1990 with 7 having occurred since 2000. 

[Allsnow]

Close the shades for two weeks at the very least if you’re looking for significant snow/cold. Some hints of change on the ensembles overnight with a -epo towards the 18th. This might be a response from the mjo getting into 7/8 around that timeframe 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While December 2015 has been the most extreme expression of the US December warming trend, the composite of the other years since 2011 shows  the same pattern.

 

 

That’s a much better look at the data though.

it shows much less of a warming trend in the last half of the decade.

[forkyfork]

17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

That’s a much better look at the data though.

it shows much less of a warming trend in the last half of the decade.

so december 2015 didn't happen?

[forkyfork]

if you take out the failed midterm i actually got an A

[psv88]

27 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

That’s a much better look at the data though.

it shows much less of a warming trend in the last half of the decade.

 We should take out the coldest year in the data set too then no? Why only take out the warmest year?

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so december 2015 didn't happen?

picking cherries is so much fun

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The warming of December temperatures is also well-reflected in the number of 40-degree Decembers. Since 1869, there have been 22 such cases. 11 have occurred since 1990 with 7 having occurred since 2000. 

Isn't the warming around the edges of winter a logical outcome of the changing climate....one would expect December to warm the most because of rising SST increasing the lag to winter time cold and March should also be warming based on it being a fringe month.  January is the last holdout, and we should expect our heaviest snows to shift from February to January as February is more sensitive to a warming climate than January is.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s a very warm December pattern when Long Island is approaching 60° early in the morning.

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Jones Beach      N/A     57 N/A N/A S13G18      N/A
Wantagh          N/A     57  55  94 S10         N/A
Hempstead      NOT AVBL
Matinecock Pt    N/A     52 N/A N/A N1          N/A
Farmingdale    CLOUDY    57  55  93 S15G24    29.94F
MacArthur/ISP  CLOUDY    57  56  96 S14       29.94F
Stony Brook      N/A     55  54  94 S7          N/A
Shirley        MOCLDY    57  54  89 SE14G23   29.97F
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A     55 N/A N/A S10         N/A
Westhampton    CLOUDY    55  53  93 SE14G21   29.98F
East Hampton   CLOUDY    53  51  94 SE15G23   29.98F
Southold         N/A     54  52  94 S18         N/A
Montauk          N/A     54  52  93 S12G21    30.02F

this is awesome, the sun is breaking out too-- could we approach 70?

 

[SACRUS]

Cloudy here and up to 54, should see more sun by noon to push the area into the 60s.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[SACRUS]

A bit of a roller coaster (bias warm) the next 10 days / two weeks.  Warm today back down Tue (12/7) - Thu (12/9) , then much warmer Fri (12/10) - Sat  60s again or higher if sunny , before a colder again Sun (12/12) - Tue (12/14) before much warmer again by Wed (12/15) which appears to start a persistent period of above avg temps.  

 

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While December 2015 has been the most extreme expression of the US December warming trend, the composite of the other years since 2011 shows  the same pattern.

 

 

We are definitely going to be in the running for a top warmest December in a few weeks from now: 

 

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't the warming around the edges of winter a logical outcome of the changing climate....one would expect December to warm the most because of rising SST increasing the lag to winter time cold and March should also be warming based on it being a fringe month.  January is the last holdout, and we should expect our heaviest snows to shift from February to January as February is more sensitive to a warming climate than January is.

 

It is. That’s what one would expect: warmer autumns and a warmer start to winter.

[wdrag]

Before we get there (real warm weather): am not doing anything with this... GFS probably too amped, but 12/12-early 13 may also eventually need a winter thread.  Would like to see Wednesday done before looking too far ahead.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

picking cherries is so much fun

 

You guys are being smart for no reason.

It’s the difference between a mean and the median if you remember mathematics.

If you take one year with a +12 you skew the entire average.

when you look at the median you realize it’s nowhere near +12 and that there is warming but a color-coded chart with an average doesn’t tell the real story.

 

You guys should be so precise with failed long range predictions and sea-sawing opinions of models on this forum.

It’s Monday…is the GFS great or a failed model today? :/

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

You guys are being smart for no reason.

It’s the difference between a mean and the median if you remember mathematics.

If you take one year with a +12 you skew the entire average.

when you look at the median you realize it’s nowhere near +12 and that there is warming but a color-coded chart with an average doesn’t tell the real story.

 

You guys should be so precise with failed long range predictions and sea-sawing opinions of models on this forum.

It’s Monday…is the GFS great or a failed model today? :/

If you're going to take away the warmest anomaly you also need to take away the coldest anomaly and then see what you're left with

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Before we get there (real warm weather): am not doing anything with this... GFS probably too amped, but 12/12-early 13 may also eventually need a winter thread.  Would like to see Wednesday done before looking too far ahead.

Walt, I see next Saturday it's supposed to hit 60 again? I wasn't aware that it would be cold enough for another winter storm after the one on Wednesday.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

A bit of a roller coaster (bias warm) the next 10 days / two weeks.  Warm today back down Tue (12/7) - Thu (12/9) , then much warmer Fri (12/10) - Sat  60s again or higher if sunny , before a colder again Sun (12/12) - Tue (12/14) before much warmer again by Wed (12/15) which appears to start a persistent period of above avg temps.  

 

 

thanks good to know I can plan my winter vacation to the Poconos right after 12/15 will probably be warm for Christmas and New Years too

 

[SACRUS]

Up to 64 and sunny here. nice breeze

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

That’s a much better look at the data though.

it shows much less of a warming trend in the last half of the decade.

That’s not how it works. December has been warming at close to 1° per decade over the last 40 years. We started out closer to 35° and now are approaching 40° in the averaged means for our whole climate division. So by mid-century, averages closer to 45° will become the norm. The warming baseline makes it easier for the more extreme years like 2015 to occur. We saw this in February 2018 with our first 80. So one of these Decembers in the future will eventually produce an 80° reading also.

 

 

[SACRUS]

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Before we get there (real warm weather): am not doing anything with this... GFS probably too amped, but 12/12-early 13 may also eventually need a winter thread.  Would like to see Wednesday done before looking too far ahead.

Agree it has that look.  A Colorado special winter snow then 60s/70s a day or two later, maybe more likely in New England but stranger things have happened. 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We are definitely going to be in the running for a top warmest December in a few weeks from now: 

 

Nasty bust shaping up for those cold December forecasts.   

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s not how it works. December has been warming at close to 1° per decade over the last 40 years. We started out closer to 35° and now are approaching 40° in the averaged means for our whole climate division. So by mid-century, averages closer to 45° will become the norm. The warming baseline makes it easier for the more extreme years like 2015 to occur. We saw this in February 2018 with our first 80. So one of these Decembers in the future will eventually produce an 80° reading also.

 

 

How long before we get a 90 average for July?

 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

December has been the warmest winter departure month over the last decade. It’s  no surprise that the models have corrected so much warmer in recent days. Summer has been extended into fall and fall into early winter.

And the SPV has become strong as can be: 

 

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nasty bust shaping up for those cold December forecasts.   

The AmericanWx.com consensus for the December temperature anomalies (widespread warm anomalies) is looking good.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56292-december-2021-temperature-forecast-contest-and-winter-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=6197054

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AmericanWx.com consensus for the December temperature anomalies (widespread warm anomalies) is looking good.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56292-december-2021-temperature-forecast-contest-and-winter-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=6197054

 

Going warm has been the winning forecast for 9 out of the last 10 Decembers.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Departure
2020	39.2	+1.7
2019	38.3	+0.8
2018	40.1	+2.5
2017	35.0	-2.5
2016	38.3	+0.8
2015	50.8	+13.3
2014	40.5	+3.0
2013	38.5	+1.0
2012	41.5	+4.0
2011	43.3	+5.8

[SnoSki14]

What a blowtorch mid December wow. Widespread 60s and 70s across entire country.