Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Don't Try to Pretty Her Up.......THE UGLY PIG "DecemberNita" comes to the party already dolled up in "Red Rouge" lipstick! given the cold water south of Alaska that is a possible outcome. Seems that AK has some cold winters when that cold pool is present and we torch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 The December long range forecasts were looking more interesting at the start of December last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: The December long range forecasts were looking more interesting at the start of December last year. arent second year la ninas usually really bad for us? its la ninas that come after el ninos that are really good and we are in the middle of the negative pdo cycle anyway 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: arent second year la ninas usually really bad for us? its la ninas that come after el ninos that are really good and we are in the middle of the negative pdo cycle anyway We are basically in the stretch of another 1971-1975 or 1949-1956 the last few years...in general you are better off being out west. I think once we can get the AMO to flip negative we might be better off...not sure the Pac state is changing anytime soon...even El Nino winters right now might act La Nina like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: arent second year la ninas usually really bad for us? its la ninas that come after el ninos that are really good and we are in the middle of the negative pdo cycle anyway It’s tough to generalize about ENSO sequences during the winter. Last winter was more like an El Niño than a La Niña. Something happened in the late summer this year which lead to the supercharged fall +EPO vortex. That’s what caused the record -PDO drop. So the Pacific Jet is setting records more than we would typically see from just a La Niña alone. This is pretty much the opposite of the 13-14 and 14-15 record NE Pacific warm blob and +PDO/+NPM. Those record warm SSTs were driven by the record -EPO blocking. So the North Pacific has experienced unprecedented volatility in a single decade. Expressions of ENSO states have often been influenced and altered by these extreme pattern swings. Past analogs don’t really do what has been happening over the last decade justice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Don't recall seeing alot of snow here in NY tri-state area from 1971-1975. The only big snow of the early 70's to speak of was the Easter Sunday snowstorm back on 3/29/70, nearly 11 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: given the cold water south of Alaska that is a possible outcome. Seems that AK has some cold winters when that cold pool is present and we torch That’ll be the outcome this winter with no NAO help. We need something to slow the PAC jet down. We see already how it’s blasting into the lower 48 but there’s been some help from Atlantic blocking. That might be going away soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 The biggest question for all of winter is whether this la nina behaves more East based or more central Pacific based. Negative PDO plus East based la nina is a -NAO signal. +NAO for central based. This relationship is for JFM. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/9/jcli-d-16-0376.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display#fig3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 I can't believe people are already panicking. Maybe this is a normal winter for us where it snows after winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Happy winter everyone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I can't believe people are already panicking. Maybe this is a normal winter for us where it snows after winter. I don’t know if I’d call it panic, but the guidance is looking pretty unfriendly for pre-Xmas cold and snow over the past few days. Reality bites sometimes. I still think we’ll get our chances between boring periods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 sure feels like winter outside 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 I can't believe people are already panicking. Maybe this is a normal winter for us where it snows after winter.It’s like the swallows returning to Capistrano; same thing every year.It might just end up being a boring winter, but honestly, none of us know. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Classic -PDO pattern showing up now for mid-December. Mild +EPO and -PNA with a +AO/+NAO. This is why we’ll need blocking down the line to push back against such an unfavorable Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 12 hours ago, bluewave said: The December long range forecasts were looking more interesting at the start of December last year. Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible Keep the golf courses open! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 November ended at 46.2[-1.8]. The first 8 days of December are averaging 44degs.(39/49), or +4. The GFS does not even reach 32 for the next 17 days! Wet snow near the 9th? CAR DEC2015 WHERE R U? Reached 42 here yesterday. Today: 45-48, wind w., m. sunny. 42*(56%RH) here at 6am. 41* at 7am. 44* at 9am. 46* at 10am. 48* at Noon. 50* at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 34 here this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 With what it costs to heat a home right now maybe we should be appreciating the relative warmth. There's my morning thought as I'm realizing that my commission checks from November are going to be terrible because I had so little available to sell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible The EPS weeklies first started showing this pattern for mid-December back on November 11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 53 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Last night’s ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were extremely ugly, +EPO, +AO, -PNA, +NAO, as far as the eye can see and they all have lost the -WPO look they had been advertising as well. The new CFS and CANSIPS runs for the month of December were equally as terrible It's a blowtorch pattern. Not Nina climo whatsoever which gives me hope for Jan-March. The last mega December torch led to Jan 2016. That being said you can't compare 2015 to now either. If blocking doesn't materialize then it'll probably end up like 2011-2012, a strong analog this year. And I'm good with that honestly. A nice mild, dry winter ain't bad at all. Just hope it doesn't eff up spring and we get March like weather next 5-6 months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: I can't believe people are already panicking. Maybe this is a normal winter for us where it snows after winter. Agreed. Christmas would be considered long term guidance and we know how that can change by then. It would just be too bad if we had to so heavily rely on blocking this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Agreed. Christmas would be considered long term guidance and we know how that can change by then. It would just be too bad if we had to so heavily rely on blocking this winter. It’s ridiculous. Then you realize it’s the same guys doing the same thing over and over again…in an echo chamber. Look at the screen names…same 5 guys. It’s always gonna be +4. Meanwhile is 35 out. Enjoy your December 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: I can't believe people are already panicking. Maybe this is a normal winter for us where it snows after winter. Yeah, looking back to March and April 2018 we had almost a seasonal snowfall in 5 weeks. Of course we had last Feb too. They were SSWE driven, which is probably what we will need again, but it has happened before and can happen again. In the mean time we enjoy energy savings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 It’s ridiculous how extreme the Pacific Jet that’s driving this pattern has become. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 33 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: It’s ridiculous. Then you realize it’s the same guys doing the same thing over and over again…in an echo chamber. Look at the screen names…same 5 guys. It’s always gonna be +4. Meanwhile is 35 out. Enjoy your December Agree Those were the same people who canceled winter last year. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy, breezy, and a bit milder. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 50° Tomorrow will be noticeably milder as a cold front pushes toward the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 49.0° Newark: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 49.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.9° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 52.1° Average temperature: 52.6° Average error: 1.1° Newark: Average daily forecast: 56.0° Average temperature: 55.8° Average error: 1.2° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 55.0° Average temperature: 55.6° Average error: 1.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s ridiculous how extreme the Pacific Jet that’s driving this pattern has become. Sometimes I wish we could accelerate continental drift and close the Pacific off. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Sometimes I wish we could accelerate continental drift and close the Pacific off. Imagine the hurricanes reaching the east coast with a wider Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Agree Those were the same people who canceled winter last year. A moderator who weenies people What a guy 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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