Eduardo Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Nice burst of moodflakes in the city! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 4 hours ago, psv88 said: Point and click is completely dry for the next 7 days they couldnt even get todays forecast right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Weeklies hinting at a -epo change around mid month. Perhaps with some jet retraction and strat help it might have some merit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Another chilly day for late November. 40F now and 43F today. Solidly negative departure month and a stark difference from the record warm October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 8 hours ago, Tatamy said: If you want to dig around in the models the 06z Ensemble run has 3 members that dig the short wave that is progged to pass across northern NE this weekend to a much greater degree than the mean. Not sure if anyone has looked at the 12z UKmet or the 12z Euro but both OP runs have bought into the system for Saturday hinted at by the ensembles earlier. Three members had it at 06z and 5 had it at 12z. The Euro has the event for next week for eastern NE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It may be related to the MJO 7 that the EPS and GEFS are showing long range. Yeah, I can see us getting into 7 but will have a hard time getting into p8. We need that pac to reshuffle because all we are getting now is a nw flow with cool air because of the lower hgts in ak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the MJO has been stalling out in phases 4-7 during recent years . The end of the GEFS run looks almost exactly like the December MJO phase 7 composite. But I and not certain how long we can hold a more -EPO with how ridiculously positive it has been since the summer. It’s also a very +AO phase. Yeah this would be p7 December in Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 the mjo has less significance for us in phase 7 during la ninas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 AND AS THEY COME AROUND THE FAR TURN......ITS 'EURO' IN THE LEAD WITH 'GFS' WIPING UP THE REAR: C O M E O N "70*F" Y O U C A N D O I T B O Y !!!! Dec. 01-15 is 39/53 = 46, or +7 by Old Style Almanac, maybe just +4 by today's standards. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 No changes in my thinking. Still on track. Looking for pattern improvement post mid month. That MJO wave is losing coherence while traversing the la Niña. As it reaches SA it's amplifying. That's what the ensembles have been doing and continue to via chi 200 charts. There are some warm waters in the Atlantic which could aid this? This should hopefully set in motion a series of favorable wave breaks. That's the idea. But it doesn't happen immediately either. So target is 2nd half of December to potentially benefit. I can see a couple of curve balls which would need monitoring. The stratosphere. As extremely unlikely as it is this time of year, any ssw reshuffles the deck totally. Would need reevaluating. Tropical cyclones are another. They have enough energy to disrupt everything. There are definitely much worse ways to be heading into this month in my view. Some interesting possibilities at the very least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: AND AS THEY COME AROUND THE FAR TURN......ITS 'EURO' IN THE LEAD WITH 'GFS' WIPING UP THE REAR: C O M E O N "70*F" Y O U C A N D O I T B O Y !!!! Dec. 01-15 is 39/53 = 46, or +7 by Old Style Almanac, maybe just +4 by today's standards. Lol I like 70 mid month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I like 70 mid month Getting my hat and gloves out of storage. Thanks man. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 9 hours ago, forkyfork said: the mjo has less significance for us in phase 7 during la ninas And if this is correct, we are not going to see -NAO for awhile: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 hours ago, Rjay said: Getting my hat and gloves out of storage. Thanks man. i started using gloves weeks ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 We have seen high temperatures reach 55+ every year since 2011 between the 18th and 25th. This warm up approaching the holidays has happened in every ENSO state from La Niña to El Niño. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Dec 18 to Dec 25 Missing Count 2020-12-25 62 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 57 0 2016-12-25 59 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 64 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 57 0 2011-12-25 62 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 23 here. Coldest of the season by a few degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 23 here as well heavy frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 23 my low also. Coldest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 Low of 29 this morning here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Pattern looks to continue boring for the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Pattern looks to continue boring for the next few weeks. For now but these clippers coming down from Canada can surprise people. We said the same thing last year until the snowstorm around the 20th. December was forecasted to be the coldest and snowiest month by many forecasters . It would be nice to see a white Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: For now but these clippers coming down from Canada can surprise people. We said the same thing last year until the snowstorm around the 20th. December was forecasted to be the coldest and snowiest month by many forecasters . It would be nice to see a white Christmas. with a fast flow and MJO stuck in 6/7 that's what we have to hope for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 24 was my low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 You can see why all the long range models eventually flatten the MJO 6 ridge out West. It’s another case of the MJO weakening around phase 6 like recent years. So the mid portion of a December will probably see warmer departures than the early part of the month. Bias corrected GEFS and ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 grinch storm seems likely once again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: grinch storm seems likely once again Whole month starting to look like a nothing burger. Would suck if December is the "coldest" month this year... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Whole month starting to look like a nothing burger. Would suck if December is the "coldest" month this year... If December sucks in a Niña, it’s usually a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 27 minutes ago, qg_omega said: grinch storm seems likely once again Crystal Ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If December sucks in a Niña, it’s usually a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter Not necessarily Blocking will do wonders but if not then you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: If December sucks in a Niña, it’s usually a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter There's a stat out there too-if we get no snow or minimal snow in December, the winter will generally suck. Last year we had the foot in the middle of the month which led to a well above normal snowfall for the season.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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