MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 CPC now shows no big warmup to start December 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Our only colder than average Decembers since 2010 were the La Ninas in 2017 and 2010. La Nina winters usually have the coldest departure month of the winter in December. This year may be easier to get a colder December since December had the biggest winter monthly temperature rise in the new 1991-2020 climate normals. So the bar could be lower for a colder December with the right pattern. But since December has seen the greatest temperature rise of the winter with the new climate normals update, factors other than La Niña and El Niño have had a big influence. So we always have to watch for this warmer December tendency to have a bigger influence than La Nina or El Niño expectations. New 1991-2020 climate normals compared to 1981-2010 EWR Dec….38.0….36.5….+1.5 Jan….32.8….31.6…..+1.2 Feb….35.1….34.6…..+0.5 Avg…..35.3….34.2….+1.1 NYC Dec….39.1…..37.5….+1.6 Jan….33.7…..32.6...+1.1 Feb….35.9….35.3….+0.6 Avg…..36.2…35.1….+1.2 LGA Dec…40.0….38.2….+1.8 Jan….34.4….32.9….+1.5 Feb….36.3….35.3….+1.0 Avg….36.9….35.5…..+1.4 JFK Dec….38.3….37.7….+0.6 Jan…..32.8….32.7….+0.1 Feb….34.5….34.9…..+0.4 Avg….35.2….35.1…..+0.1 ISP Dec….37.1…..35.6…..+1.5 Jan….31.9….30.6…..+1.3 Feb...33.3….32.8…..+0.5 Avg….34.1….33.0…..+1.1 BDR Dec…37.0….35.4….+1.6 Jan….31.4….30.1….+1.3 Feb….33.1….32.4….+0.7 Avg…..33.8…32.6….+1.2 HPN Dec…35.1….33.6….+1.5 Jan….29.8….28.3…+1.5 Feb….31.9….30.9….+1.0 Avg…..32.6….30.9…+1.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Newark NJ December snow depth... December.....dates....t = trace falling....T = trace on the ground...trace is less than 0.5"... season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 2020.......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....5...11....7....7....7....5....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2019........t....2....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....0.....0....0....t....t.....1....1....t.....0.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2018...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0...0.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0 2017...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....4...4.....1....0....t.....2....1....1....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....1....1 2016...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....T....0....3....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0 2015...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0 2014...….0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2013...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....2....1....0....0....4....3....2....4....3....2....2....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0 2012...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.….0....T....0....0....2....1....0 2011...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2010...….0....0....0....0....0.....t....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...18..24..20..16..14..13 2009...….0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....7....8....6....6....5....5....4....1....0....0....0....0....2 season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 2008...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....2....1....0....5....3....4....2....2....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....T 2007...….0....2....T....T....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0.....0....1....1....t.....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t 2006...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2005...….0....t.....0....4....2....1....T....T....6....5....4....4....3....3....3....T.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T 2004...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0.....t....1....1....T....0....0 2003...….t.....T....0....0....8..16..14..11,,,,9....6....0....0....t.....4....1....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2002...….T....0....t.....0....7....7....6....4....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....4....2....1....T....0....0....0 2001...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2000...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...14..12 1999...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0 season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1998...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....1....1....T....0....0....0....t.....t 1997...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0.....t....0....t.....T....T 1996...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T 1995...….T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....T....T....1....1.....T....T....0....7..10....9....9....5....4....4....3....3....3....2....2....2 1994...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t....,0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1993...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....T.....0....0....3....3....3 1992...….0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....T....0....0....0 1991...….0....0....0....t.....T....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0 1990...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....8....4....2....0 1989...….0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0.....T....T....T....0....0....0....0....t.....T....T.....0....T....T season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1988...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....T....T....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1987...….0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....2....2....2 1986...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....1....0....1....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0 1985...….0....t.....t.....0....1....3....1....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....1....1....T....T....0....t.....0....t.....T....T....0....0 1984...….0....0....0....0....2....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....5....5....T....0....0 1983...….0,,,,T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T.....T....2....1....T....T....T....0....0....0 1982...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1981...….0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....1....1....0....2....T....1....T....T....T.....T....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0 1980...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....t.....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....1....1....1....1....T....0....0 1979...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....4....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1978...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0 1977...….0....0....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t 1976...….0....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....5....4....6....5....4....4 1975...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....t....T....2....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0 1974...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0...0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....1 1973...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t 1972...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1971...….0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....T....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t 1970...….0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....0....0....0....0....T....2....2....1....1....2....1....1....T....T....T 1969...….1....T....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....0....T....T.....t......t.....t.....t....T....3....6....5....5....4....3....2 season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1968...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....T....3....3....2....1....T....T.....0....1....0....t.....0....0....2....2....0....0....0 1967...….3....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....t.....T....T.....T....3 1966...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....0....0....0....0....0....T....2....1....1....7....8....7....6....6....4....1....1 1965...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0 1964...….0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....T.....0....0....T....0....3....3....2....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1963...….t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....2....1....1....1....1....T....1....1....1....1....1....7....7....5....4....3....3....3....3....3 1962...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....2....1....1....1....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....3....4....3....2....3....3....T....T....T.....T....T 1961...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....2....T....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....6..10....8....6....5....2....2....2....2 1960...….t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....4..20..19..17..15..13....8....6....6....6....5....2....2....2....2....2....1....1....3....2....1 1959...….0....0....0....0....0....0....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....5....4....3....3....2....1....0....2....T....0 season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1958...….0....0....t.....0....0....t.....t.....1....4....2....2....1....1....1....1....T....T....0,,,,0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1957...….0....0....1..12....9....8....4....0....0....t.....3....3....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1956...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....T....0....0 1955...….0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....T....0....0....3....3....2....0....0....0....0....T....T.....T 1954...….0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1953...….t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t 1952...….0....3....5....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....3 1951...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....4....2....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0 1950...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0.…T....3....3....2....1....T....0 1949...….0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1948...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....2....0....0...13..10..10...6....3....3....3....3....3....2....1....0....3 1947...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....1...26..20..19..17..15..15 1946...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1945...….1....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....t.....0....T....2....2....1....1....1...10...7....6....6....6....5....4....0....0....T....2....T....0 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. the years with a good stretch of snow cover for December starting with December 1945.. 1945 had snow on the ground from the 14th to the 25th...10" at some point on the 19th...Christmas morning came in with 4" on the ground...That was gone by the next morning from a rain storm.. 1947 had snow on the ground from the 23rd and beyond...1" on the ground Christmas morning...26" storm on the 26th...est. 26" on the 26th on the ground ... 1948 had snow on the ground from the 19th to the 30th...13" on the ground on the 19th...heavy rain ended that streak... 1951 had snow on the ground from the 14th-19th... 1957 had snow on the ground from the 3rd-7th and again from the 11th-14th...est 12" on the 4th... 1958 had a little on the ground from the 8th-15th... 1959 had snow on the ground from the 21st to 27th...3" was on the ground Christmas morning... 1960 had snow on the ground from the 11th-31st...20" on the ground on the 12th...2" on the ground Christmas morning... 1961 had snow on the ground from the 23rd to 31st...est, 10" on the ground on the 24th...8" was on the ground Christmas morning... 1962 had snow on the ground from the 21st to the 26th...2" on the ground Christmas morning... 1963 had snow on the ground from the 12th-16th and the 18th-31st...5" was on the ground Christmas morning...The 5th straight year with at least 2" of snow on the ground Christmas morning... the 23rd had at least 2" on the ground from 1959 to 1964...six straight years... 1966 had snow on the ground from the 21st to 31st...8" on the ground Christmas morning... 1969 from the 25th-31st...maybe a trace in spots Christmas morning... 1970 from the 22nd to the 28th...1" was on the ground Christmas morning... 1976 had snow on the ground from Christmas night to the 31st... 1980 had an inch on the ground from the 23rd-28th... 1995 had snow on the ground from the 19th-31st...4" was on the ground Christmas morning... 2002 had snow on the ground from the 5th-11th...a trace on the ground Christmas morning to 4" Christmas night... 2003 had snow on the ground from the 5th to the 10th...est 16" on the ground on the 6th...heavy rain ended that streak... 2005 from the 9th-15th... 2008 from the 19th-24th...brown Christmas... 2009 from the 19th-26th...4" on the ground Christmas morning... 2010 from the 26th-31st...est 24" on the 27th... 2013 from the 14th-20th... 2020 from the 16th-22nd... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 NYC December average temperatures since 2010 with coupled La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Temperature Departure 2020 39.2 +1.7 2019 38.3 +0.8 2018 40.1 +2.5 2017 35.0 -2.5 2016 38.3 +0.8 2015 50.8 +13.3 2014 40.5 +3.0 2013 38.5 +1.0 2012 41.5 +4.0 2011 43.3 +5.8 2010 32.8 -4.5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC December average temperatures since 2010 with coupled La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Temperature Departure 2020 39.2 +1.7 2019 38.3 +0.8 2018 40.1 +2.5 2017 35.0 -2.5 2016 38.3 +0.8 2015 50.8 +13.3 2014 40.5 +3.0 2013 38.5 +1.0 2012 41.5 +4.0 2011 43.3 +5.8 2010 32.8 -4.5 40 degree Decembers used to be rare...Now its normal... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 56 minutes ago, uncle W said: 40 degree Decembers used to be rare...Now its normal... trust me it's a helluva lot better than December 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: trust me it's a helluva lot better than December 1989 it would have felt a lot better if we got a snowstorm New Years day 1990...when your biggest snowstorm of the season comes in November it usually means the rest of the winter wasn't that good... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, uncle W said: it would have felt a lot better if we got a snowstorm New Years day 1990...when your biggest snowstorm of the season comes in November it usually means the rest of the winter wasn't that good... I believe it was about 33 with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I believe it was about 33 with rain longest thaw on record... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: 40 degree Decembers used to be rare...Now its normal... It was easier to get an occasional NYC December average temperature near or below freezing when the average December temperature was in the mid 30s. NYC Dec….1991-2020…..39.1…..1981-2010…37.5…..1971-2000…..37.3…..1961-1990…..36.6………+2.5 Jan……………………….33.7…………………….32.6………………………32.1………………………..31.5……..+2.2 Feb……………………….35.9…………………….35.3………………………34.6………………………33.6……..+2.3 Avg……………………….36.2…………………….35.1……………………….34.7……………………….33.9……+2.3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, uncle W said: longest thaw on record... except for the Millenium snowstorm in 2000 we have a bad record when it comes to pre New Years snow....I'm not sure if I've ever seen one in my entire lifetime. 12/31-1/1 just to be clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, uncle W said: it would have felt a lot better if we got a snowstorm New Years day 1990...when your biggest snowstorm of the season comes in November it usually means the rest of the winter wasn't that good... Hey Uncle let me know if you can figure out which storm that was that I remembered from December in the mid 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, uncle W said: longest thaw on record... lasted until April when we got a minor snowfall lol after it had been in the mid 80s in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: lasted until April when we got a minor snowfall lol after it had been in the mid 80s in March! Early March had a clipper that stalled. Got 3-4" Clipper in late Feb as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Early March had a clipper that stalled. Got 3-4" Clipper in late Feb as well yes the end of February and the beginning of March had near record cold twice and some snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: yes the end of February and the beginning of March had near record cold twice and some snow... weird I dont remember that, I thought our seasonal total was 10.6"? I know JFK got more than that because the November storm was heavier there and they were closer to some of the southern scrapers that hit us in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Early March had a clipper that stalled. Got 3-4" Clipper in late Feb as well we had some weird stalling clippers in the early 90s lol, I remember the 36 hour snowstorm that dropped like 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Gfs looks great for the 1st week of December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Now this is a weenie run. Total GFS snowfall up to December 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Gefs had a huge trough in the east during the 1st week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gefs had a huge trough in the east during the 1st week of December. it's supposed to turn warmer after December 2nd though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 As long as NYC gets 3” or more in a coupled La Niña December since the 1995, it usually does well in the seasonal snowfall department. It’s the few years like 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 1999-2000, and 1998-1999 that came up short. Coupled La Ninas since 1995 bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: As long as NYC gets 3” or more in a coupled La Niña December since the 1995, it usually does well in the seasonal snowfall department. It’s the few years like 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 1999-2000, and 1998-1999 that came up short. Coupled La Ninas since 1995 bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 Does November snowfall get included with this lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: As long as NYC gets 3” or more in a coupled La Niña December since the 1995, it usually does well in the seasonal snowfall department. It’s the few years like 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 1999-2000, and 1998-1999 that came up short. Coupled La Ninas since 1995 bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 Just looking at the stats without delving into the la Nina intensity of each bolded year, I am shocked that the distribution of above/below/average snowfall winters are even. I am thinking that this shows that we have a 50/50 shot of blocking establishing itself and determining our fate (as opposed to ninas where we can live without the blocking). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Just looking at the stats without delving into the la Nina intensity of each bolded year, I am shocked that the distribution of above/below/average snowfall winters are even. I am thinking that this shows that we have a 50/50 shot of blocking establishing itself and determining our fate (as opposed to ninas where we can live without the blocking). With all the record winter warmth over the last 20 years, getting intervals of blocking and a more favorable Pacific has been key to the record snowfall. This has been true for all the various ENSO states. It’s the few years when the Pacific didn’t relax and the NAO and AO blocking was lacking that snowfall went below normal. With the record blocking patterns since 2002-2003, we have seen an unprecedented number of seasons when stations from around Newark out to Eastern LI recorded 40” or more of snow. This dramatic increase in snowfall has occurred during a steady increase in winter temperatures. Our older winters with 40”+ peak snowfall amounts used to occur with a NYC average temperature around 32°. But many recent 40”+ seasons featured a NYC average DJF temperature in the 35°-40° range. So this is a new combination of warmth and heavy snow for our area. Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded 20-21….36.1 17-18….36.2 16-17….39.3 15-16….41.0 14-15…31.4 13-14…32.9 12-13…36.8 10-11….32.8 09-10…33.8 08-09…34.2 05-06…37.3 04-05…35.4 03-04…32.4 02-03…31.2 00-01….33.5 95-96…32.2 93-94…31.2 86-87….34.8 77-78….30.8 68-69….32.9 66-67….34.1 63-64…33.2 60-61….31.7 57-58…33.2 55-56…32.8 Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 snowiest NYC Decembers since 1950 and indices... year....snowfall....big snow......ave temp....oni…...AO.......NAO....PNA....QBO... 2010.....20.1"...…….20.0"...…….32.8......-1.6....-2.631....-1.85....-1.78....10.97 2003.....19.8"...…….14.0"...…….37.6...….0.4.....0.265.....0.64.....0.86...-11.38 1960.....18.6"...…….15.2"...…….30.9...….0.1....-0.343.....0.06.....1.46...-11.36 1959.....15.8"...…….13.7"...…….38.4...….0.0....-0.042.....0.44.....0.66......8.30 2000.....13.4"...…….12.0"...…….31.1...…-0.7....-2.354....-0.58.....1.23...-14.56 2009.....12.4"...…….10.7"...…….35.9...….1.6....-3.413....-1.93.....0.34...-15.57 1995.....11.5"...……...7.9"...…….32.4...…-1.0....-2.127....-1.67.....0.92.....-4.57 1963.....11.3"...……...6.3"...…….31.2...….1.3....-1.178....-1.92....-0.08......5.48 2002.....11.0"...……...6.0"...…….36.0...….1.1....-1.592....-0.94.....1.59.....-0.50 2020.....10.5"..........10.5"..........39.2......-1.0...-1.736....-0.30.....0.24....10.37 2005...….9.7"...…......5.8"...…….35.3...…-0.8....-2.104....-0.44.....1.38...-25.04 1966...….9.1"...……..7.1"...…….35.7...….-0.3....-1.401.....0.72.....0.09....13.26 1957...….8.7"...……..8.0"...…….40.2...…..1.7.....0.828.....0.12....-0.43...…7.35 2013...….8.6"...……..5.0"...…….38.5...….-0.3.....1.475.....0.95....-0.86....12.52 1961...….7.7"...……..6.2"...…….35.5...….-0.2....-1.668....-1.48....-1.24......6.25 2017...….7.7"...……..4.5"...…….35.0...….-1.0....-0.059.....0.88.....0.89...-18.12 1952...….7.5"...……..4.5"...…….38.4...…..0.1....-1.827....-0.43.....0.93.....-1.65 1990...….7.2"...……..7.2"...…….42.6...…..0.4.....1.277.....0.22....-1.32....10.68 1968...….7.0"...……..5.2"...…….34.3...…..1.0....-0.783....-1.40....-1.44...-11.36 1993...….6.9"...……..4.0"...…….37.3...…..0.1....-0.104.....1.56.....0.72.....-6.00 1969...….6.8"...……..6.8"...…….33.4...…..0.6....-1.856....-0.28.....1.84......5.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Dec 6" snowfalls since 1957... date...........amount...AO.........NAO.........PNA.....NDJ ONI... 12/3-4/1957.....8.0"...+0.561....-0.197.....+0.534...+1.6.....ao was rising from negative... 12/21-22/59...13.7"...+1.032...+1.291......-0.812....-0.1..... 12/11-12/60...15.2"....-0.316....-0.916.....+1.527.....0.0 12/23-24/61.....6.2"....-0.862....-2.530......-0.436....-0.2 12/23-24/63.....6.6"...+0.129....-0.103.....+1.218...+1.1.....ao was rising from negative... 12/24-25/66.....7.1"....-2.324...+0.411.....+0.686....-0.3 12/25-27/69.....6.8"....-0.971....-0.148.....+0.547...+0.7 12/27/1990......7.2"...+2.601...+1.950......-0.936...+0.4 12/19-20/95.....7.7"....-4.353....-0.774.....+0.926....-0.9 12/30/2000....12.0"....-4.115....-0.537.....+1.075....-0.8 12/5/2002.......6.0"....-1.938.....-0.479.....+0.672...+1.1 12/5-6/2003...14.0"...+0.481.....-0.197.....+0.784...+0.3 12/19-20/09...10.9"....-4.651.....-1.833.....+0.549...+1.3 12/26-27/10...20.0"....-2.886.....-1.144......-0.284....-1.4 12/16-17/20...10.5"....-2.760.....-0.499.....+0.407....-1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 NYC Dec 4" snowfalls and the following total seasonal snowfall...15/25 had 40" or more for the season...19/25 had 30" or more...23/25 had 24" or more... two had less than 20" but both those storms had two parts...15/25 years had a snowstorm 10" or more after December...19/24 winters had a snowfall 8" or more after Dec...21/25 6" or more...23/25 another 4" or more... winter.....Dec 4" ....seasonal snow...snowfalls after Dec... 1947-48.....26.4"..........63.2"..........5.7" 1948-49.....16.0"..........46.6"..........9.4" 1952-53.......4.5"..........15.1"............2.0"...the Dec storm was a two part storm with rain in the middle... 1957-58.......8.0"..........44.7"..........11.8" 1959-60.....13.7"..........39.2"..........14.5" 1960-61.....15.2"..........54.7"..........17.4" 1961-62.......6.2"..........18.1"............2.9"...the Dec storm was a two part storm with mix and drizzle in the middle... 1963-64.......6.3"..........44.7"..........12.5" 1966-67.......7.1"..........51.5"..........12.5" 1968-69.......5.2"..........30.2"..........15.3" 1969-70.......6.8"..........25.6"..........4.0"...the Dec storm was two parts with rain in the middle... 1984-85.......4.8"..........24.1"..........5.7" 1990-91.......7.2"..........24.6"..........8.9" 1993-94.......4.0"..........53.4"..........12.8" 1995-96.......7.7"..........75.6"..........20.2" 2000-01.....12.0"..........35.0"............6.0" 2002-03.......6.0" 5.0" 49.3"..........19.8" 2003-04.....14.0"..........42.6"..........10.4" 2005-06.......5.8"..........40.0"..........26.9" 2008-09.......4.0"..........27.6"............8.3" 2009-10.....10.9"..........51.4"..........20.9" 2010-11.....20.0"..........61.9"..........19.0" 2013-14.......5.0"..........57.4"..........12.5" 2017-18.......4.6"..........40.9"..........9.8" 2020-21.....10.5"..........38.6"..........17.4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Today's teles and MJO forecast look better than recent days they now have the MJO going into phase 7 And while the AO/NAO trend positive they look to bring it back to neutral. I know Snowman 19 feels and I agree with him that the MJO will have a tough time getting into favorable phases, however I do think that with The colder temps now established in regions 3 and 1.2 we have a chance to get convection over or near the date line. We shall see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 First week will feature a few mild days and them winter should be here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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