New Year's Weekend Storm

[DCMetroWinston]

Larry Cosgrove says cold will return around January 3, and shortly thereafter, yet another chance of snow for the South. Tonight he teases: "While a January Thaw may be on the minds of some, the numerical models are very aggressive in developing what appears to be an entrenched -EPO/-AO/-NAO alignment in the first ten days of the new year. Subtropical ridging is strong but seems destined to remain over the Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles, while a deep mean 500MB trough sets up from Hudson Bay into the Gulf Coast. This configuration favors an active storm track from TX and LA to NC, then north-northeast into the Grand Banks. In other words, if you want snow and ice in Dixie and the Eastern Seaboard, this scenario represents the most likely chance for early January. Most of the U.S. should be colder than normal, while positive thermal anomalies dominate much of Canada (thanks to the ridging)"

[DCMetroWinston]

CPC says the cold won't relent!

[Carvers Gap]

Larry Cosgrove says cold will return around January 3, and shortly thereafter, yet another chance of snow for the South. Tonight he teases: "While a January Thaw may be on the minds of some, the numerical models are very aggressive in developing what appears to be an entrenched -EPO/-AO/-NAO alignment in the first ten days of the new year. Subtropical ridging is strong but seems destined to remain over the Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles, while a deep mean 500MB trough sets up from Hudson Bay into the Gulf Coast. This configuration favors an active storm track from TX and LA to NC, then north-northeast into the Grand Banks. In other words, if you want snow and ice in Dixie and the Eastern Seaboard, this scenario represents the most likely chance for early January. Most of the U.S. should be colder than normal, while positive thermal anomalies dominate much of Canada (thanks to the ridging)"

Sounds interesting. Do you have a link? I wouldn't mind reading the rest of that.

[DCMetroWinston]

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-december-25-2010-at-5-00-p-m-ct

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a link to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's latest update on the ENSO situation, specifically the La Nina peak. BTW, this mornings 0z looked pretty warm w/ a very weird looking block. Though, I need to get a look at the ensembles. Still think the model is trying to get a handle on the pattern...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Don't know enough to say whether the upcoming La Nina decline will impact us this winter, but I'd say the impact next winter will be significant.

Edit: 0z ensembles look cold days 11-15. Almost has the same look for December's departures.

[DCMetroWinston]

Here is a link to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's latest update on the ENSO situation, specifically the La Nina peak. BTW, this mornings 0z looked pretty warm w/ a very weird looking block. Though, I need to get a look at the ensembles. Still think the model is trying to get a handle on the pattern...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Don't know enough to say whether the upcoming La Nina decline will impact us this winter, but I'd say the impact next winter will be significant.

Edit: 0z ensembles look cold days 11-15. Almost has the same look for December's departures.

What does CPC usually rely upon to issue its outlooks? DO they issue any discussion to go with their outlook maps?

[Carvers Gap]

What does CPC usually rely upon to issue its outlooks? DO they issue any discussion to go with their outlook maps?

Off the top of my head, I think CPC uses analogs, climatology, weather models, ENSO, and the like. Usually they provide a discussion unless that has changed. If I remember correctly, there are no discussions on weekends and the maps might be computer generated then as well.

[burgertime]

FWIW Larry Cosgrove does pretty well in his LR forecast. Last winter he did well with predicting the time frames for which southern storms were possible.

[Shawn]

I am beginning to think the warm up might be a one to two week deal. It will actually be welcome for me. I love cold and snow, but this southern boy also likes a comfortable day outside occasionally too (even in winter). Below is a tidbit from JB. It seems as if he's starting to doubt his torch talk from a month ago.

"Another wild card is the 10mb level, which has been less than enthusiastic in its warming tool, but now is showing more of the kind of signature in the 10 day forecast to hint at cold in much of the nation"

I guess as always, time will tell.

I must admit even though JB usually overhypes and only cares about the NE it seems, he was right about his white Christmas basically. Maybe we'll hear something else from him about this cold that may stick around.

[Carvers Gap]

I must admit even though JB usually overhypes and only cares about the NE it seems, he was right about his white Christmas basically. Maybe we'll hear something else from him about this cold that may stick around.

He basically says negative to the cold air for a while in the east. A current(?) stratospheric warming event is mentioned as possibly influencing the weather for mid and late January towards cold. 2007-2008 comes to mind. While not an incredible winter, he forecast January 2008 to be a blowtorch bascially. We only finished just a 0.3 above normal at KTRI. That said, since I wrote my comments last night, the ensembles have warmed considerably on the GFS, but are still cool. The operational at 6z is pretty warm in my opinion. However, I wonder if this winter won't follow the November/December pattern of cold, followed by 3-4 weeks of warm, then cold again. Whether Nina or not, January thaws are not uncommon. The question is whether the cold will come back in reasonable quantities. That block over Greenland doesn't seem to want to leave. I imagine if that is the case, it wall have something to say about winter before it's all over. I'm like tnweathernut, I think there is a two week thaw coming up(possibly could be more as mentioned earlier). Maybe it was Foothills or Hickorywx(or both), that mentioned this winter would be one of extremes. We've had cold. Now comes warm.

[Brick Tamland]

I am looking forward to the warm up this week. I'm good for snow for a while Seeing it snow on Christmas was incredible, and we ended up having a big time storm. I do wonder if January will bring us more. I hope the next snow we get will be during the week, though, so I can at least get a day off work from it.

[DCMetroWinston]

I am looking forward to the warm up this week. I'm good for snow for a while Seeing it snow on Christmas was incredible, and we ended up having a big time storm. I do wonder if January will bring us more. I hope the next snow we get will be during the week, though, so I can at least get a day off work from it.

See, that is the difference between people who casually say they like cold and snow and those of us who are true lovers of cold and snow. This month's cold and snow has only whetted my appetite for more intense, prolonged cold and snow. It has only stoked me to long for more cold and snow. Everyone says that I am only in love with the notion of living in a cold and snowy environment, but would whither if I actually lived somewhere like Minnesota. I know that I truly love cold and snow because no matter how much we get, it is never enough. I always want more. When I spent time in Minnesota, I would be saddened when the temperature got about 10 or it rained instead of snowed. May was sad to me because it usually meant no more snow. So, I am saddened by the pattern change, and hope cold and snow will return by next week for the duration.

[NEGa]

i am with you dcmetro - you can never have enough cold and snow even after this monster we just had, and even though it will be nuisance, if even that, i am still looking at thur morning for a little more frozen precip

[burgertime]

I just want a warm weekend and then back to cold and snow. Speaking of the Euro looked like it was going to get really cold after New Years then jumped the temps up again near the end of it's OP run, also had a storm coming out of the gulf. If Larry Cosgrove is right that might be a time to start seeing where the GFS and Euro trend in the next few days.

[strongwxnc]

I agree. Would love a little bit of warm weather. However, it is only January. Plus I want to help Wow get his Foot this year 12Z GFS hr 312

I just want a warm weekend and then back to cold and snow. Speaking of the Euro looked like it was going to get really cold after New Years then jumped the temps up again near the end of it's OP run, also had a storm coming out of the gulf. If Larry Cosgrove is right that might be a time to start seeing where the GFS and Euro trend in the next few days.

[burgertime]

I agree. Would love a little bit of warm weather. However, it is only January. Plus I want to help Wow get his Foot this year 12Z GFS hr 312

Oh believe me, the GF was just calling me crazy cause at lunch at said, "ready for the warm weekend then right back to cold and hopefully a big snow". I need that foot of snow as well, or just something major....which by the way this was pretty major even being on the short of the stick.

[NCBlizzard]

Oh believe me, the GF was just calling me crazy cause at lunch at said, "ready for the warm weekend then right back to cold and hopefully a big snow". I need that foot of snow as well, or just something major....which by the way this was pretty major even being on the short of the stick.

yea even though those of us on the 74 corridor from Shelby through Charlotte caught the low end of the stick compared to the whole state it was still awesome.

FWIW the Euro has been showing the potential for a storm at the end of its range with the energy starting in the SW and moving east.

[burgertime]

yea even though those of us on the 74 corridor from Shelby through Charlotte caught the low end of the stick compared to the whole state it was still awesome.

FWIW the Euro has been showing the potential for a storm at the end of its range with the energy starting in the SW and moving east.

Yea just got to see if those temps are going to drop. Looking at it just verbatim I would assume the temps are going to be lower then progged. Looking at the 12z Euro it has our freezing line and 850's jumping all over the place after Tuesday. What would be interesting is if we got yet another chance next weekend, that would mean all of our winter weather has hit on the weekends right? Certainly would say we're in a pattern if that's the case.

[BIG FROSTY]

Yea just got to see if those temps are going to drop. Looking at it just verbatim I would assume the temps are going to be lower then progged. Looking at the 12z Euro it has our freezing line and 850's jumping all over the place after Tuesday. What would be interesting is if we got yet another chance next weekend, that would mean all of our winter weather has hit on the weekends right? Certainly would say we're in a pattern if that's the case.

Hey Burger, Just wanted to thank you again for all the model info and the PBP's

[Jon]

Just for fun, glimmer of some action far far away on the 12z GFS...I hope everyone can take a break from the forum and enjoy the brief warm up, I do see a snow threat in January for our future..

[HKY_WX]

wow at the blocking showing up on 18z gfs.warm january forecast in major trouble if that happens.

[NCBlizzard]

Yea just got to see if those temps are going to drop. Looking at it just verbatim I would assume the temps are going to be lower then progged. Looking at the 12z Euro it has our freezing line and 850's jumping all over the place after Tuesday. What would be interesting is if we got yet another chance next weekend, that would mean all of our winter weather has hit on the weekends right? Certainly would say we're in a pattern if that's the case.

yea we will see. I would love for mine, yours, and Roberts area to finally get buried.

[NCSNOW]

I must admit even though JB usually overhypes and only cares about the NE it seems, he was right about his white Christmas basically. Maybe we'll hear something else from him about this cold that may stick around.

I enjoy JB and his LR skills are pretty decent at sniffing out patterns. But I remind you he was calling for rain in the Carolinas as late as the 23rd and saying snow would be north of us on Christmas. He flipped 360 on Thursday in regards to the Carolina White Christmas. He nailed last years pattern for D,J,F along with alot of others. He will nail Dec because it will be our coldest as far as departures form normal. But he was bold about winter would be completely over for us from the Holidays on. As December wore on he has changed his tune. I can almost bet you we wont have -8 to -10 avg temp departures in Jan & Feb. Biggest reason our normal mean temp has come way down. In order to average -8 to -10 we would have to have sustained brutal cold. I have seen JB as gifted as he is in lR completely bust winter seasonal forecast By a wide margin before. LR forecasting is very difficult. Sometimes you get give me patterns like last year and sometimes you think your getting give-me patterns like this year and all of the sudden something like the NAO locks in negative and it changes everything. I never thought I'd see the day the NAO could stay negative most if not all winter long. When the block sets up in the right position it gives you a mechanisim to pump Canadian air down on a continual feed. We dont need abnormally cold siberian air in Canada, all we need is their normal air and our odds of seeing frozen precip go up three-fold. Expect JB to beat the hoarse that the worst of winter is over for the SE. He'll be correct as far as mean temp departures from normal. But I'm willing to bet Jan and Feb will average at or slightly below normal for our area as long as the NAO stays negative. Coupled with the fact we will have had our coldest December of all time and everyone has already reached 90-100% their normal annual snowfall average, this winter is turnig out to be a pretty good one IMO.

[FoothillsNC]

. Coupled with the fact we will have had our coldest December of all time and everyone has already reached 90-100% their normal annual snowfall average, this winter is turnig out to be a pretty good one IMO.

I'm at 55% of my snow average, but I'm with you, if the nao remains negative , or heads back after a brief break, we'll get other chances.

[Wow]

wow at the blocking showing up on 18z gfs.warm january forecast in major trouble if that happens.

This may end the assumption that anything more than a weak La Nina is a bad thing. If the NAO is strong enough (in a negative phase) lots of good things can still happen regardless of the ENSO phase.

[Cold Rain]

This may end the assumption that anything more than a weak La Nina is a bad thing. If the NAO is strong enough (in a negative phase) lots of good things can still happen regardless of the ENSO phase.

This winter is going to hammer home the fact that we don't know nearly as much as we think we do about longer range forecasting. It's been a pretty safe bet for a while to look at a few analogue years for La Ninas, El Ninos or whatever and say, "those yielded X and this Winter's ENSO state is like that, so this Winter will yield X as well." I think with the potential changing of the long term NAO state, the quiet Sun, etc., some of the analogue years that have been relied heavily upon are going to decrease in value as a forecasting tool.

It would not surprise me one bit to end up colder than normal this Winter, which by looking at most Winter forecasts that were made back in the Sept. - Nov. time frame, will be quite a surprise to a lot of people.

[eyewall]

After the New Years torch look for a lakes cutter type of storm to help re-establish the height field and pattern in our favor.

[DCMetroWinston]

I am hearing so much about the prospect that a recurring negative NAO could mean a 30-year cycle of cold Eastern winters. Does anyone have any links that explain this theory?

[DCMetroWinston]

Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day discussion from this afternoon:

"...THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) INDEX WILL BECOME HIGHLY NEGATIVE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE NEGATIVE NAO INDEX

IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT AND SOUTHERN GREENLAND.

[tnweathernut]

The blocking showing up on the 0z GFS for the period after 168 is impressive. It's almost seems MORE impressive than the block we have just had. Take a look at this ensemble image from hr 192 to see what I am talking about. The EURO ensembles also show our negative NAO rebuilding. (west based) The lakes cutter that is going to occur this weekend really acts to reset the persistent blocking we have been in.

There even looks to be a hint here and there of a less negative, even slightly positive PNA around this time frame. It's been a long time since we have had a trough dig into the southwest with an NAO so negative. A met can correct me if I am wrong, but this is the type of look (west southwest flow) that can spit multiple disturbances out of the southwest and cause the threat of overrunning every couple of days. I wouldn't be surprised to see an icy/snowy look to the modeling as we move toward 1/5/11. Just my thoughts, but it looks almost certain we are heading back to a cooler/colder regime after the storm this weekend.

If this isn't the right place for this mods, please feel free to move it.