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New Year's Weekend Storm

tarheelwx

By tarheelwx,
in Southeastern States

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

Before the "Christmas Storm" grabbed all the attention, many were saying we'd have to wait on the New Year's storm. Things have changed alot since that time. The current storm has trended much colder (too much northern stream actually) and the New year's storm has trended much warmer.

HOWEVER, take a look at this link.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_216l.gif

When was the last time we saw a 1044 hp sitting over southeast Canada? Been quite a while I beleive. A few adjustments here or there by next weeekend, and there you have it. Highly speculative, but something to watch after the current conglomeration is out of the way.

TW

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

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Posted

Before the "Christmas Storm" grabbed all the attention, many were saying we'd have to wait on the New Year's storm. Things have changed alot since that time. The current storm has trended much colder (too much northern stream actually) and the New year's storm has trended much warmer.

HOWEVER, take a look at this link.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_216l.gif

When was the last time we saw a 1044 hp sitting over southeast Canada? Been quite a while I beleive. A few adjustments here or there by next weeekend, and there you have it. Highly speculative, but something to watch after the current conglomeration is out of the way.

TW

18z much cooler with a leading wave around ny eve.

TW

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
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Actiually the 00z gfs shows a big warmup late next week followed by a return to very cold and a chance for a storm in the first week of the year.

TW

Per DT-- On upcoming Pattern !

DT's Thoughts

[/url]

Wxrisk.com LOOKING AHEAD-- Major warm up coming DEC 30-31-JAN 1-2. Temps could Reach near 65 degrees DEC 31 &JAN 1!! But Much talked above VERY mild JAN is in Trouble. Strong Model agreement that Cold pattern Returns Jan 3. Two *POSSIBLE*

winter weather events JAN 7 & JAN 11. There are good "signals" that one o...r both of these events MIGHT be snowy. MORE on this on the web site MONDAY MORNING

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

Per DT-- On upcoming Pattern !

DT's Thoughts

Wxrisk.com LOOKING AHEAD-- Major warm up coming DEC 30-31-JAN 1-2. Temps could Reach near 65 degrees DEC 31 &JAN 1!! But Much talked above VERY mild JAN is in Trouble. Strong Model agreement that Cold pattern Returns Jan 3. Two *POSSIBLE*

winter weather events JAN 7 & JAN 11. There are good "signals" that one o...r both of these events MIGHT be snowy. MORE on this on the web site MONDAY MORNING

No groipt's or slopehead comments. This forecast is a LOCk then. although there is a o...r

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Per DT-- On upcoming Pattern !

DT's Thoughts

Wxrisk.com LOOKING AHEAD-- Major warm up coming DEC 30-31-JAN 1-2. Temps could Reach near 65 degrees DEC 31 &JAN 1!! But Much talked above VERY mild JAN is in Trouble. Strong Model agreement that Cold pattern Returns Jan 3. Two *POSSIBLE*

winter weather events JAN 7 & JAN 11. There are good "signals" that one o...r both of these events MIGHT be snowy. MORE on this on the web site MONDAY MORNING

What's the link for that? I couldn't find it on DT's website or on Facebook.

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dsaur

dsaur

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Yeah, since a few days before the 1st showed up on the gfs I was thinking it looked good in a "weenie throwing the bones down on a map of the gfs" sort of way :) And some storms showed up I thought would morph into one. But after this storm came true, I was beginning to wonder if there was room in this period for two....maybe it will relax for a few weeks. But I believe in the blocking, and; I know climo likes it for around New Years in Atl. 'cause I've seen some good storms in my past in Atl. around the years end. Sure hope we can get one. T

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

This last one was a fun storm. I don't know if I have the energy for another one yet. Ok, yes I do. Bring it. I have felt all along that we are not going to torch the whole month of Jan. like a lot of forecasts out there. I don't really have anything to base that on other than the fact that the Sun has been quiet and we seem to be reverting to a -NAO state. I've felt like this La Nina might have a different "feel" than a lot of the other La Ninas we're used to. Anyway, I hope we do have more to follow in the near future. I'm all in :snowman:. :)

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

Before the "Christmas Storm" grabbed all the attention, many were saying we'd have to wait on the New Year's storm. Things have changed alot since that time. The current storm has trended much colder (too much northern stream actually) and the New year's storm has trended much warmer.

HOWEVER, take a look at this link.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_216l.gif

When was the last time we saw a 1044 hp sitting over southeast Canada? Been quite a while I beleive. A few adjustments here or there by next weeekend, and there you have it. Highly speculative, but something to watch after the current conglomeration is out of the way.

TW

Ha Ha. I bet you will be at the top of a lot of wives "sh!t list's" with this topic starting. I have not tracked anything in a few years like the last system. Heck of a lot fun! Lets hope for more wintry weather down the road!

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

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gfs ensembles are showing the big GOA low starting to retrograde towards the Aleutians. if that happens, you have to wonder if it's a response to the weakening la-nina. if you combine a favorable pacific with the continued blocking over the poles, you have to think January/February will be great months.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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gfs ensembles are showing the big GOA low starting to retrograde towards the Aleutians. if that happens, you have to wonder if it's a response to the weakening la-nina. if you combine a favorable pacific with the continued blocking over the poles, you have to think January/February will be great months.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

Just posted similar(much less technical thoughts) on the December thread at almost the same time - wasn't trying to steal your thunder. It may be the NAO is just driving the pattern right now and not La Nina. So, the La Nina is weakening? If so, how long would it normally take the atmosphere to react to that? I've heard(correct me if I'm wrong) that a weakening La Nina is great for winter weather in the south.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

Just posted similar(much less technical thoughts) on the December thread at almost the same time - wasn't trying to steal your thunder. It may be the NAO is just driving the pattern right now and not La Nina. So, the La Nina is weakening? If so, how long would it normally take the atmosphere to react to that? I've heard(correct me if I'm wrong) that a weakening La Nina is great for winter weather in the south.

no big deal. i'm not sure anyone can really say for 100% certainty how long it takes for the atmosphere to react, but it makes me wonder when i see the quick response to the PNA on the PNA maps you posted(pna rising). you can clearly see the nina is weakening on the SST maps, and also the ENSO models have been forecasting a steady weakening from mid-december through winter.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

no big deal. i'm not sure anyone can really say for 100% certainty how long it takes for the atmosphere to react, but it makes me wonder when i see the quick response to the PNA on the PNA maps you posted(pna rising). you can clearly see the nina is weakening on the SST maps, and also the ENSO models have been forecasting a steady weakening from mid-december through winter.

There is part of me that expects to see the models flip to a warm pattern based on everyone's January forecasts... which are based on good ideas I might add. 1989 is always in the back of my mind, and maybe this storm signals the pattern shift. However, the extreme of this current cold/blocking, a major winter storm during a moderate/strong La Nina, and the NAO staying negative on several models gives me pause. BTW, thanks for the SST update.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I am beginning to think the warm up might be a one to two week deal. It will actually be welcome for me. I love cold and snow, but this southern boy also likes a comfortable day outside occasionally too (even in winter). Below is a tidbit from JB. It seems as if he's starting to doubt his torch talk from a month ago.

"Another wild card is the 10mb level, which has been less than enthusiastic in its warming tool, but now is showing more of the kind of signature in the 10 day forecast to hint at cold in much of the nation"

I guess as always, time will tell.

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