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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Back to normal around the 18th. Looking good rest of the month. Neg EPO NAO going neg. Deep Arctic cold in Canada. Arctic high pressure nosing in. Panic room kids gonna panic

Agree

Pattern is finally looking nice. Not sure why the panic. Happens every year.

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19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We (in SNE) haven’t seen a majority cold/snowy January in a while, right? 

Yeah gotta go back to 2015 really....though you could maybe make a case for 2018 (first 10 days were brutal cold with the 1/4/18 bomb....however the rest of the month was a torch).

Jan 2019 was cold, but not all that snowy.

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Pattern is finally looking nice. Not sure why the panic. Happens every year.

Some of us said 2 or 3 days ago that these warm domes at this time of year, ...more frequently than not, turn out to be transient warm sectors - that means, in and out ... two days or day and a half.

Some times I wonder if the person who makes statements like this, "Not sure why the panic.." are in fact reflecting their own reaction ... haha.

Givin you shit.

Anyway, it is clear that it will be colder prior to the holidays.  "Weather" that includes snow fall, who knows.    Kidding aside, it was voiced that this may turn out to be transient.   GFS and GGEM are in agreement for an oscillatory pattern through D8.. There is in fact two distinct warm ups. The first centered on 54 hours, give way to shallow N-door boundary settling S... and seasonality for 2 days..Then, the warm sector next Wed-Thur... depends but magnitude right now ( to me ..) looks pedestrian anomaly and not too outrageous.  I think those 75 ideas sailed 2 days ago when I saw the fact that the flow's predominantly fast, progressive nature would be hostile to "locking" a pattern that anomalous, that long.   The oscillatory nature is in fact more supported by the longer termed footprint hemispheric mode.  

 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some of us said 2 or 3 days ago that these warm domes at this time of year, ...more frequently than not, turn out to be transient warm sectors - that means, in and out ... two days or day and a half.

Some times I wonder if the person who makes statements like this, "Not sure why the panic.." are in fact reflecting their own reaction ... haha.

Givin you shit.

Anyway, it is clear that it will be colder prior to the holidays.  "Weather" that includes snow fall, who knows.    Kidding aside, it was voiced that this may turn out to be transient.   GFS and GGEM are in agreement for an oscillatory pattern through D8.. There is in fact two distinct warm ups. The first centered on 54 hours, give way to shallow N-door boundary settling S... and seasonality for 2 days..Then, the warm sector next Wed-Thur... depends but magnitude right now ( to me ..) looks pedestrian anomaly and not too outrageous.  I think those 75 ideas sailed 2 days ago when I saw the fact that the flow's predominantly fast, progressive nature would be hostile to "locking" a pattern that anomalous, that long.   The oscillatory nature is in fact more supported by the longer termed footprint hemispheric mode.  

 

Agree. Its transient.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah gotta go back to 2015 really....though you could maybe make a case for 2018 (first 10 days were brutal cold with the 1/4/18 bomb....however the rest of the month was a torch).

Jan 2019 was cold, but not all that snowy.

Missed this...beat me to it.

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Weenie up everyone. A white Christmas for all. Event on Dec 22 or 23 could bring snow all the way to the coast before its over.

How can I be so sure? Because wishful thinking guides everything else these days, so why not?

Reality check seems to show some changes by then anyhow and we about due for an anti-Grinch storm.

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The warm up next week, but I don't think the cold lasts more than a couple of weeks, either.

If we can get big jabs to the PV the pattern should last longer than just a couple of weeks. Also if the MJO gets struck in phases 7-8-1 and stays there. I really like the look of this cold just before Christmas. All credit goes to Bamwx.

Image

 

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This 18z GFS looks cold mean by the 19th!

Clearly this progressive pattern is causing model performance havoc as they are consummately correcting to the next 'cog' in the flow... This big heat thing is really gone for us. 

24 from now we spit a warm sector ... then knock back normal for a couple of days. I wouldn't be surprised if the gig on Thursday is delimited to a day - projecting trend is all...  That layout by D9 "looks" like aft of a -EPO loading event ...yet the EPO only looks like it's neutralized.  You gotta see the nuances in the flow...and what is going on out there in the EPS and GEFs mean combined, by D9+, is that the PV N of JB is low enough relative to Aleut.  neutral EPO domain, to trigger a NW conveyor through the NW Territories of the Canadian shield.   That's why we see a pretty good loading into the S eventually SE/Ontario by 8-10.

Also, it's meaningless beyond entertainment, but that 18th thru the 21st in the run is probably a phat ice storm.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This 18z GFS looks cold mean by the 19th!

Clearly this progressive pattern is causing model performance havoc as they are consummately correcting to the next 'cog' in the flow... This big heat thing is really gone for us. 

24 from now we spit a warm sector ... then knock back normal for a couple of days. I wouldn't be surprised if the gig on Thursday is delimited to a day - projecting trend is all...  That layout by D9 "looks" like aft of a -EPO loading event ...yet the EPO only looks like it's neutralized.  You gotta see the nuances in the flow...and what is going on out there in the EPS and GEFs mean combined, by D9+, is that the PV N of JB is low enough relative to Aleut.  neutral EPO domain, to trigger a NW conveyor through the NW Territories of the Canadian shield.   That's why we see a pretty good loading into the S eventually SE/Ontario by 8-10.

Also, it's meaningless beyond entertainment, but that 18th thru the 21st in the run is probably a phat ice storm.

When I was a kid I remember an ice storm the 23rd or 24th, probably early 70's encyclopedia Will would probably know which year.

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27 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

When I was a kid I remember an ice storm the 23rd or 24th, probably early 70's encyclopedia Will would probably know which year.

 

1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

12/16/73

Yup! I was 5 and in kindergarten 12/73.  Lost power for a few days…had to keep the fire place roaring day and night to stay warm. No power and no water.  Dad was a cop and working around the clock, and mom was keeping the fire going and cooking/baking potatoes for us in the fireplace by candlelight… Fond memories 

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