weathafella Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 People posting progs for d14 and declaring them right isn’t helping. We’ll have some above normal temperatures for sure. A bigger concern to me is the dryness. A pattern change would fix that but we have to get there. 1993 had a long torch in December starting around the 2nd week with a snow event imbedded around mid month. That flipped right around Christmas as an apps runner deluged us on the 23rd. Post Christmas got cold and snowy and that pattern held for the duration. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take the over on both days for now. I think we sector and dry out in the aftn a bit tomorrow. Euro has rain all day. Those enjoying the 60 inside in the rain will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Huh, check out BOX radar. What just got emitted from Portsmouth RI? Pretty sure that might be from naval base. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro has rain all day. Those enjoying the 60 inside in the rain will be happy Couple of showers in SNE in the aftn.I lead mostly dry afternoon in many areas. Maybe srn areas get those converging shwrs or drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: ? Loop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Loop it. Fire at the Marina 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: People posting progs for d14 and declaring them right isn’t helping. We’ll have some above normal temperatures for sure. A bigger concern to me is the dryness. A pattern change would fix that but we have to get there. 1993 had a long torch in December starting around the 2nd week with a snow event imbedded around mid month. That flipped right around Christmas as an apps runner deluged us on the 23rd. Post Christmas got cold and snowy and that pattern held for the duration. Precipitation looks to be normal for the month around here, so far...November was somewhat dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Fire at the Marina Yup. A few huge sailboats went up. My son texted me about it. His campus is all hazy from the smoke and it reeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 12z GEFS look more like the EPS now with greater RNA and a more stout se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yup. A few huge sailboats went up. My son texted me about it. His campus is all hazy from the smoke and it reeks They found the source of the fire: 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z GEFS look more like the EPS now with greater RNA and a more stout se ridge. The arctic actually looks better, though....cross polar flow...I'll bet it would be colder than the H5 composite implies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z GEFS look more like the EPS now with greater RNA and a more stout se ridge. Verbatim it’s a look that would work out for me. Eps trended towards this middle ground last night so let’s make sure the models hold it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Eric Webb thinks a negative NAO is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Who’s Eric Webb? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 All the models have a storm lurking at 240 hours Latest Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Who’s Eric Webb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Obviously H5 is a fantastic level to start at when assessing the pattern and potential evolution but there are times where H5 can be extremely misleading. While there is a strong correlation to evolution of H5 and the sfc the correlation is not 100%. Moving through at least the end of the month just using H5 alone may be one of those times where the correlation is quite small (to the sfc). Point-in-case next week. Examination of the sfc continues to show strong cold high's sliding southeast through Canada (even into our area). While high pressure's obviously aren't good for storms they can supply cold air...so what do we want for storms? The jet continues to be active with shortwaves which keep coming into the country from the PAC...so if we can keep supplying systems and get some llvl atmospheric support we'll have winter chances...whether it be snow, mixed, or ice. Point is H5 does not always tell all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Who’s Eric Webb? One of those younger, cocky mets. He has some good material, but thinks he knows it all. 4 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 It's not gonna snow right now so enjoy the warm weather. Don't worry too much about the long range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The arctic actually looks better, though....cross polar flow...I'll bet it would be colder than the H5 composite implies. The 850 anomalies show this well...it's not that warm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the models have a storm lurking at 240 hours Latest Euro For the Pacific NW??? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 850 anomalies show this well...it's not that warm here. It will be interesting to see if we can not only get but maintain ridging in the Alaska region. The persistent troughing there has been quite impressive along with the degree of cold. It's been a bit uneasy b/c there have been so many times during the earlier fall and even know that this overall scheme would breakdown but it hasn't. IMO (and I could be totally wrong on this premise since this out well out of my wheel house) but I think in order for us to see any significant and major changes to the overall configuration the changes have to happen across the western Pacific/Asian continent...not necessarily the Arctic. There needs to be a complete overhaul there first and then the rubber band snaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It will be interesting to see if we can not only get but maintain ridging in the Alaska region. The persistent troughing there has been quite impressive along with the degree of cold. It's been a bit uneasy b/c there have been so many times during the earlier fall and even know that this overall scheme would breakdown but it hasn't. IMO (and I could be totally wrong on this premise since this out well out of my wheel house) but I think in order for us to see any significant and major changes to the overall configuration the changes have to happen across the western Pacific/Asian continent...not necessarily the Arctic. There needs to be a complete overhaul there first and then the rubber band snaps. Great Post! I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Back to normal around the 18th. Looking good rest of the month. Neg EPO NAO going neg. Deep Arctic cold in Canada. Arctic high pressure nosing in. Panic room kids gonna panic 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the models have a storm lurking at 240 hours Latest Euro That's not really a bad look..or is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 The environment that is materializing across western TN, KY, southern IL/IN is becoming quite scary. The overlap in ingredients is insane. If there was greater confidence in aerial coverage could probably argue high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Just now, KEITH L.I said: That's not really a bad look..or is it? It's clown range but it's a very good look....esp for interior. That high is kind of moving east to coastline might have issues by the time the storm comes up the coast, but overall it's at least something that is plausible once we're done with next week's torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It will be interesting to see if we can not only get but maintain ridging in the Alaska region. The persistent troughing there has been quite impressive along with the degree of cold. It's been a bit uneasy b/c there have been so many times during the earlier fall and even know that this overall scheme would breakdown but it hasn't. IMO (and I could be totally wrong on this premise since this out well out of my wheel house) but I think in order for us to see any significant and major changes to the overall configuration the changes have to happen across the western Pacific/Asian continent...not necessarily the Arctic. There needs to be a complete overhaul there first and then the rubber band snaps. The arctic certainly helps...it doesn't facilitate an epic pattern in and of itself, but it can render things serviceable in the shorter term. But to your point, I saw a post from Allan Huffman on twitter comparing the behavior of the MJO right now to 1994 and 1996 in that the MJO may ultimately die out after reaching phase 8, which may send us back to milder forcing regimes by about the second week of January. I do buy that...I don't think the colder transition is a happily ever after into weenie bliss. Its going to get warm again in January before any potential longer term changes take hold during the second half of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 We (in SNE) haven’t seen a majority cold/snowy January in a while, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The arctic certainly helps...it doesn't facilitate an epic pattern in and of itself, but it can render things serviceable in the shorter term. But to your point, I saw a post from Allan Huffman on twitter comparing the behavior of the MJO right now to 1994 and 1996 in that the MJO may ultimately die out after reaching phase 8, which may send us back to milder forcing regimes by about the second week of January. I do buy that...I don't think the colder transition is a happily ever after into weenie bliss. Its going to get warm again in January before any potential longer term changes take hold during the second half of the season. And that's a great point...just b/c an entire month overall looks like crap or torchy or whatever doesn't mean we can't get snow or a good storm. All we need to do is capitalize on those times when the pattern is favorable. Obviously when the window of favorable is smaller the task becomes more difficult but it's not impossible. I've been noticing a ton of play recently on the MJO...I guess b/c it's been a bit active, but the MJO is probably one of the most difficult oscillations to forecast. Putting alot of stock though in a medium-to-long term forecast with heavy weight can be very Russian Roulette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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