ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: On eps, a small adjustment eastward on EPO would work. Or just less digging of the western trough....or a bit more of a stout -NAO....there's a few ways to get it to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Or just less digging of the western trough....or a bit more of a stout -NAO....there's a few ways to get it to work. I think we are SOL on the RNA trough not digging as much...that is pretty supported by MJO 7-Nina. The other two could work...I could see a bit more EPO or NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we are SOL on the RNA trough not digging as much...that is pretty supported by MJO 7-Nina. The other two could work...I could see a bit more EPO or NAO. Dec MJO 7 composite looks a lot tamer than progs....not saying the prog is wrong, but digging the trough really deep into CA doesn't seem to be on here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I like the Euro 20C at 850 near Chicago next week. WTF. Saw that... Tracing that back, it's coming off the plateau/elevations of old Mexico - that's a deep ingest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 One wonders if the sounding over Des Moines will be like a straight line down from that 20C ... I'm not sure the sun can input enough energy to realize the adiabat at that latitude. what a freak show - half sarcastic here, but good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: One wonders if the sounding over Des Moines will be like a straight line down from that 20C ... I'm not sure the sun can input enough energy to realize the adiabat at that latitude. what a freak show - half sarcastic here, but good lord It'll feel like the Arctic compared to them. Wouldn't be shocked to see some 80F readings there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec MJO 7 composite looks a lot tamer than progs....not saying the prog is wrong, but digging the trough really deep into CA doesn't seem to be on here True....I guess I was speaking to the fact that EPO and NAO are more supported than PNA. I was also interpreting the se ridge as attributable to pretty strong RNA in the absence of a hostile arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: True....I guess I was speaking to the fact that EPO and NAO are more supported than PNA. I was also interpreting the se ridge as attributable to pretty strong RNA in the absence of a hostile arctic. The SE ridge position in the composite is good for us...the one on the ensembles is bad for us...it's too far north. We could get away with another couple hundred miles even on the composite, but we can't have the max anomalies almost overhead. So if we can trend that western ridge a little more tame and/or find some other mechanism to push the SE ridge a little south (whether its the NAO or a more easterly EPO block), then we'd be in business. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec MJO 7 composite looks a lot tamer than progs....not saying the prog is wrong, but digging the trough really deep into CA doesn't seem to be on here I think forky and bluewave said December phase 7 in a La Nina generally sucks relative to neutral or Nino but the ensembles seem to indicate an even worse pattern than even the straight Dec La Nina composites for 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Totally unrelated. @Ginx snewx His storm. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/114/10/1520-0493_1986_114_1847_fassia_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=pdf Wicked storm. Fronto forcing with some CSI FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The SE ridge position in the composite is good for us...the one on the ensembles is bad for us...it's too far north. We could get away with another couple hundred miles even on the composite, but we can't have the max anomalies almost overhead. So if we can trend that western ridge a little more tame and/or find some other mechanism to push the SE ridge a little south (whether its the NAO or a more easterly EPO block), then we'd be in business. Yea, I guess I didn't scrutinize it that closely considering the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think forky and bluewave said December phase 7 in a La Nina generally sucks relative to neutral or Nino but the ensembles seem to indicate an even worse pattern than even the straight Dec La Nina composites for 7 Sucks for Forky, not us. It's not a great pattern, but I would take that nina MJO 7 comp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 4 hours ago, bwt3650 said: Obviously, I have a biased toward jay, but gotta respect how up front they are about the weekend. Winds should be kickin up there Saturday. Looks like they're progged to not be too bad until the overnight hours Saturday and into Sunday AM? Have a free place to stay at Killington so am debating the drive up. Saturday should at least be soft... EDIT: sorry, I realize this probably belongs in the ski thread. also I was looking at the wrong graphic...definitely seems windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Wouldn't be surprised if this morning's low of 22F here isn't seen again until 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 26 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Wouldn't be surprised if this morning's low of 22F here isn't seen again until 2022. Right - December 31, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Wouldn't be surprised if this morning's low of 22F here isn't seen again until 2022. I’d be pretty surprised if we cannot beat that in the final 10-12 days of the month considering that monster EPO dump of cold into Canada. Even if the pattern is somewhat hostile for snow, that type of arctic cold is going to be hard to avoid when frontal passages occur behind a cutter....even if it’s transient cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d be pretty surprised if we cannot beat that in the final 10-12 days of the month considering that monster EPO dump of cold into Canada. Even if the pattern is somewhat hostile for snow, that type of arctic cold is going to be hard to avoid when frontal passages occur behind a cutter....even if it’s transient cold. The fakiators can beat that in a warm pattern under a strong HP to our north or south this time of year with the low dews. They’d be 22. I’d be 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The fakiators can beat that in a warm pattern under a strong HP to our north or south this time of year with the low dews. They’d be 22. I’d be 38 True the valley dwellers were doing that in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Damage 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: True the valley dwellers were doing that in October. Yup, hit 17.1⁰ on a clear, calm night in November.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Yup, hit 17.1⁰ on a clear, calm night in November.... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The fakiators can beat that in a warm pattern under a strong HP to our north or south this time of year with the low dews. They’d be 22. I’d be 38 Yeah we haven't really had one of those epic cold blasts with Ginxy arctic hounds blasting and temps in the teens or lower with strong winds. It's been the fakiators naked high fiving each other from 5-6am before the temp sky rockets after 7a. Whoopee. "Hey look how cold my valley got by the field with my unshielded accurite!" Meanwhile there's fuking Toucans in the tree canopy's above. 1 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we haven't really had one of those epic cold blasts with Ginxy arctic hounds blasting and temps in the teens or lower with strong winds. It's been the fakiators naked high fiving each other from 5-6am before the temp sky rockets after 7a. Whoopee. "Hey look how cold my valley got by the field with my unshielded accurite!" Meanwhile there's fuking Toucan's in the tree canopy's above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we haven't really had one of those epic cold blasts with Ginxy arctic hounds blasting and temps in the teens or lower with strong winds. It's been the fakiators naked high fiving each other from 5-6am before the temp sky rockets after 7a. Whoopee. "Hey look how cold my valley got by the field with my unshielded accurite!" Meanwhile there's fuking Toucans in the tree canopy's above. Maybe you can celebrate the solstice by burning the kids' sleds. The lawn is still green so no risk of fire spread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we haven't really had one of those epic cold blasts with Ginxy arctic hounds blasting and temps in the teens or lower with strong winds. It's been the fakiators naked high fiving each other from 5-6am before the temp sky rockets after 7a. Whoopee. "Hey look how cold my valley got by the field with my unshielded accurite!" Meanwhile there's fuking Toucans in the tree canopy's above. You know it’s fake cold when after 4 hours in the upper teens , they’re seen picking tomatoes and peppers a week later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Maybe you can celebrate the solstice by burning the kids' sleds. The lawn is still green so no risk of fire spread. I may do that. The Amazon boxes that they came in make a good starter fuel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we haven't really had one of those epic cold blasts with Ginxy arctic hounds blasting and temps in the teens or lower with strong winds. It's been the fakiators naked high fiving each other from 5-6am before the temp sky rockets after 7a. Whoopee. "Hey look how cold my valley got by the field with my unshielded accurite!" Meanwhile there's fuking Toucans in the tree canopy's above. I was just thinking today how I'd like one of those air masses where the high is like 0...been a while. Wow, would the charts be flying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was just thinking today how I'd like one of those air masses where the high is like 0...been a while. Wow, would the charts be flying 2019 and there has only been 5 of those in ORH history back to the 1800s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 I am definitely waiting for a real arctic outbreak. I remember skiing in NNE back in the day with highs well below zero. Last season and this season so far have not been very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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