40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ensembles are also starting to show it If we get there in December, then this is what needs to happen...don't go by the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Torch seems rather muted here. Basically just THU/FRI into the 40s and then more cold drops in. That sneaky high is prob going to "Ruin" the torch for most of it I think....we might be able to get Thursday or Friday pre-FROPA to get a really good day in there, but I'm starting to envision this backdoor high keeping it colder. It will still be mild compared to averages, but I was previously thinking we could make a run at all time December records and now I'm skeptical we even sniff those types of highs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 @MJO812 That is a big NAO EAST on the GEFS and GEPS...big difference. That will not prevent cutters. EPS is still neutral, which I tend to favor through the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @MJO812 That is a big NAO EAST on the GEFS...big difference. It’s trending west on the GEFS something to watch. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s trending west on the GEFS something to watch. I think that storm just before xmas or xmas eve is a contendah to provide a white xmas for many....NAO or not. I get that the pattern isn't pretty yet, but it doesn't have to be pretty to grab a front end couple of inches that won't wash away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s trending west on the GEFS something to watch. Yeah I noticed that too. Th GEFS look much more interesting the week prior to Christmas vs EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that storm just before xmas or xmas eve is a contendah to provide a white xmas for many....NAO or not. I get that the pattern isn't pretty yet, but it doesn't have to be pretty to grab a front end couple of inches that won't wash away. Yes I agree, let’s see hope the trends continue through next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 I like the Euro 20C at 850 near Chicago next week. WTF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like the Euro 20C at 850 near Chicago next week. WTF. That’s insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: That’s insane. 570 thicknesses into Iowa. That is stupid lol. Luckily that doesn't move over Mansfield quite like out in the Plains. Still quite warm though here verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Other than maybe some brief snows in the mtns after a fropa, big thaw incoming. Just be prepared to say eff it and start over before Christmas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Obviously, I have a biased toward jay, but gotta respect how up front they are about the weekend. Winds should be kickin up there Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like the Euro 20C at 850 near Chicago next week. WTF. No sneaky Tippy HP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No sneaky Tippy HP? Not on Thursday. At least on the Euro. Maybe a sneaky shot Tuesday into Wednesday. That solution is hard to wrap my head around. Holy Plains torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No sneaky Tippy HP? It's there Tuesday/Wednesday....this run does warm sector us Thursday though which would get us well into the 60s if we can achieve warm sector early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not on Thursday. At least on the Euro. Maybe a sneaky shot Tuesday into Wednesday. That solution is hard to wrap my head around. Holy Plains torch. 80F in Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's there Tuesday/Wednesday....this run does warm sector us Thursday though which would get us well into the 60s if we can achieve warm sector early in the day. I'll bet my area only ends up with one highly anomalously warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I noticed that too. Th GEFS look much more interesting the week prior to Christmas vs EPS. I think Matt Hugo over in the UK has been paying a lot of attention to that shift in the GEFS, if you follow him on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I think Matt Hugo over in the UK has been paying a lot of attention to that shift in the GEFS, if you follow him on twitter. I do.....I really like his stuff. He made an account here like a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Totally unrelated. @Ginx snewx His storm. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/114/10/1520-0493_1986_114_1847_fassia_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Totally unrelated. @Ginx snewx His storm. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/114/10/1520-0493_1986_114_1847_fassia_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=pdf This was the storm where I posted a pic of me back in the day on a sled....to which many were very mean in criticizing my 2 yr old fashionwear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Totally unrelated. @Ginx snewx His storm. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/114/10/1520-0493_1986_114_1847_fassia_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=pdf Great event....one of the few that crushed my area, and proked ORH with like 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I do.....I really like his stuff. He made an account here like a month ago. Yeah he seems thoughtful and smart, and really keyed into the same high latitudes we obsess about. I started reading him last month in prep for a biz trip to London for last week that got "omicroned". But I'll be back there in late January. Often what is good for them is good for us, not always though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Yeah he seems thoughtful and smart, and really keyed into the same high latitudes we obsess about. I started reading him last month in prep for a biz trip to London for last week that got "omicroned". But I'll be back there in late January. Often what is good for them is good for us, not always though. East-based NAO is much better for them, and vice verse with respect to west-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet my area only ends up with one highly anomalously warm day. Thursday looks like the best bet. I don't think any of Monday-Wednesday will be that warm....above average, but prob not 50s/60s...maybe 50s are possible in the usual spots Monday. It will depend how well we mix on Monday. Friday could be a downslope dandy too....something to watch for temp enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Great event....one of the few that crushed my area, and proked ORH with like 5". ORH had like 10" in that event....you are prob thinking of 12/29/76 a few years earlier which gave 128-495 belt like 12-18" and ORH got 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH had like 10" in that event....you are prob thinking of 12/29/76 a few years earlier which gave 128-495 belt like 12-18" and ORH got 4". Well, close.....one of the few biggies that I did significantly better in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Thursday looks like the best bet. I don't think any of Monday-Wednesday will be that warm....above average, but prob not 50s/60s...maybe 50s are possible in the usual spots Monday. It will depend how well we mix on Monday. Friday could be a downslope dandy too....something to watch for temp enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yeah I was running to my laptop to more easily bold that. Classic Will telling warmistas to go fuk themselves...lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On eps, a small adjustment eastward on EPO would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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