Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 That extended layout in the oper. Euro is maddening. You have a positive anomaly in the H500 at 30 N, and a deep negative anomaly near 70 N ... so you have huge gradient spanning everywhere. The resting wind velocity is probably buck 10 from S of Alaska to ...somewhere out in the N Atl. S/W's typically tote wind maxes along with them ... less than that velocity. That's basically suppression madness - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Ok, looks like the geostrophic wind is 70 to 80kts in the ambience - Still, that's a velocity anomaly that's numerically absorbing individual S/Ws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 I guess that's about the right timing ... Now that the front-side of winters book-end blocking is about behind us and the deeper heights of winter press S into the HC remnants ... here comes the velocity soaking to wreck the days - Warned this would happen ... 5 years ago, and have every autumn since. I'm being snarky a little .. but it will be interesting to see if this goes ahead and damps the cool enso signal as efficiently as it belated the the warm ones. It's hard to identify either in the base flow, when the base flow is gradient saturated - it overwhelms the physics of standard R-wave distribution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Ugly looking EPS today 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ugly looking EPS today progressive past 240? GEFS didn't look too bad out in LaLa land.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: progressive past 240? GEFS didn't look too bad out in LaLa land.... Don’t like seeing the one eyed pig and fast Pacific flow . Just hope it’s transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 EPS starts getting better at the very end but today’s run was definitely an ugly one. Been a lot of volatility on these runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS starts getting better at the very end but today’s run was definitely an ugly one. Been a lot of volatility on these runs. Seemed a few posters were confused at what it showed. It’s hideous. Hopefully it’s wrong. Lots of volatility 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seemed a few posters were confused at what it showed. It’s hideous. Hopefully it’s wrong. Lots of volatility The consistent theme of these waffling runs is that there is very little legitimate winter activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 I wish Pivotal wouldn't render it's heights in 3 dam intervals... annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 51 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The consistent theme of these waffling runs is that there is very little legitimate winter activity It’s also climo this time of year too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 There’s definitely been some volatility. Almost like when the guidance sneaks in a s/w into Anchorage area it goes nuts while other runs don’t do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There’s definitely been some volatility. Almost like when the guidance sneaks in a s/w into Anchorage area it goes nuts while other runs don’t do that. Yeah I’m not sure I remember so much volatility in the D9-12 range before on the EPS when it comes to larger scale features like the EPO/WPO...like you said, one run tries to form a black hole over AK from a fish farting in the Aleutians and then next run we see a nice ridge there or at least nothing resembling a vortex. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t like seeing the one eyed pig and fast Pacific flow . Just hope it’s transient Unfortunately the better bet is on the pig. Transient, maybe…but we will have to fight it all winter imwo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seemed a few posters were confused at what it showed. It’s hideous. Hopefully it’s wrong. Lots of volatility Looks good. 18z gfs too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I’m not sure I remember so much volatility in the D9-12 range before on the EPS when it comes to larger scale features like the EPO/WPO...like you said, one run tries to form a black hole over AK from a fish farting in the Aleutians and then next run we see a nice ridge there or at least nothing resembling a vortex. Did we have sort of crappy pattern with a couple of light SWFE prior to 12/13/07? I remember a couple of small events before things really settled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Unfortunately the better bet is on the pig. Transient, maybe…but we will have to fight it all winter imwo. Agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Unfortunately the better bet is on the pig. Transient, maybe…but we will have to fight it all winter imwo. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 GFS and Euro both looked like they liked the cutter potential around Dec 5-6th. Maybe shuffle the deck the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Did we have sort of crappy pattern with a couple of light SWFE prior to 12/13/07? I remember a couple of small events before things really settled in. I had 7.5" on 12/03/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I’m not sure I remember so much volatility in the D9-12 range before on the EPS when it comes to larger scale features like the EPO/WPO...like you said, one run tries to form a black hole over AK from a fish farting in the Aleutians and then next run we see a nice ridge there or at least nothing resembling a vortex. Fish farts. In the Aleutians. After a pause, I decided I quite like that one and decided to not lurk today like usual. This place is better than television. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Looks good. 18z gfs too Leave it to this winner to post in the Winter thread dor Warm weather. Lol In all seriousness, how in the world can we even say what will happen? The models keep waffling back and forth. I dor one am not banking on one outcome over another. Time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Leave it to this winner to post in the Winter thread dor Warm weather. Lol In all seriousness, how in the world can we even say what will happen? The models keep waffling back and forth. I dor one am not banking on one outcome over another. Time will tell. I don't see a winter or winter wx thread. I see a December thread Here is a demolition cutter 12/6 on the 0z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 47 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I don't see a winter or winter wx thread. I see a December thread Here is a demolition cutter 12/6 on the 0z gfs Welp, love it or hate it that is a classic cutter. Maybe someone scores some damage on the fropa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Welp, love it or hate it that is a classic cutter. Maybe someone scores some damage on the fropa. C’mon man..that’s a 9 day Op run…it ain’t playing out like that. Don’t fall for this piece of trash’s posts. He sucks Period! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 You all are giving him exactly what he wants....a reaction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You all are giving him exactly what he wants....a reaction. You’re absolutely right! I just couldn’t resist when Hippy responded to that troll….But I have to do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 In order to get anything above meh for the winter, we need Atlantic help. Transient requires timing which most of the time doesn’t quite work out. Took my daughter and her bf to see Dylan tonight-Rough and Rowdy Ways Tour. Surprised at how good he sounded at age 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 6 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: I don't see a winter or winter wx thread. I see a December thread Here is a demolition cutter 12/6 on the 0z gfs That's awesome. First a cutter, than a coastal. Thanks for posting. Excited for what comes next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 If I have no pack to protect, it can cut to Milwaukee for all I care. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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