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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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the "attitude" of the 12z operational Euro sort of makes the warm up more pedestrian looking than what it had last night's release.    Still a big warm lolly pop day but it's quite transient and fast to move off...and already D's 9/10 the pattern correction discussed is evident.  Decent cold load already into Ontario/Quebec...

It's one run. It's way out there. It is what it is... But, I've seen this sort of thing happen countless times in the active jet times of year ( such as now ;) )...where a huge sprawling dome of warmth ends up more like transient warm sector.   It's not impossible this ends up just as oversold as sometimes these lows do, too

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1 hour ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

I'd be more content with fall and winter warmth extremes if the spring and summer could get similar cold extreme treatment. We get 80 in February but I'm not seeing a 30 in August. It kinda sucks enjoying and wanting seasonable weather.

It’s true, ha.  But the cold season also has larger standard deviations for temps than the warm season.  More likely to see huge departures in cold season.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s true, ha.  But the cold season also has larger standard deviations for temps than the warm season.  More likely to see huge departures in cold season.

Yeah seeing a +20 or -20 day in the summer is much harder than in the winter. In the winter, we can have a high of 0 or 5F or a high of 65-70F. In the summer your extremes are probably 55F to 100F for most of the area for highs. 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah seeing a +20 or -20 day in the summer is much harder than in the winter. In the winter, we can have a high of 0 or 5F or a high of 65-70F. In the summer your extremes are probably 55F to 100F for most of the area for highs. 

Unless it’s 4th of july

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5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah seeing a +20 or -20 day in the summer is much harder than in the winter. In the winter, we can have a high of 0 or 5F or a high of 65-70F. In the summer your extremes are probably 55F to 100F for most of the area for highs. 

Makes sense.....all of the gradients are steeper during the cold season given limited solar irradiance. 

 

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14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs brings the cold after the 18th fwiw

I am excited for the long range....I envision a gradient pattern lead in from the 20th into NY, than maybe a week to 10 days potential to go BOOM before we thaw again in January....then we await the real PV disruption.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am excited for the long range....I envision a gradient pattern lead in from the 20th into NY, than maybe a week to 10 days potential to go BOOM before we thaw again in January....then we await the real PV disruption.

Hopefully it's real and the pattern gets fun soon

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am excited for the long range....I envision a gradient pattern lead in from the 20th into NY, than maybe a week to 10 days potential to go BOOM before we thaw again in January....then we await the real PV disruption.

Hopefully NNE can score some snow by Xmas.

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