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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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14 minutes ago, 512high said:

Tip school me, you and others keep talking "fast flow", seems to take its sweet ass time to get here(mean cold), then when it arrives, seems when a threat is near, doesn't have time to get a storm  organized........because of the "fast flow"

Ahmm, is there a question in this above ?  

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Some interesting factors on the field for the mjo this season, it would seem. From a recent paper on the MJO. I'm really interested in how things work out this season. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/1/jcli-d-18-0811.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display

Specifically, under cool ENSO, easterly QBO, and SMIN conditions, evidence favors a strengthened wave train that propagates farther eastward and more strongly modulates SLP and SAT anomalies. The modulation is increased further when two or more of these conditions are simultaneously in effect. While internal intraseasonal variability is large and these influences may not be apparent during a given MJO cycle in a given winter, the length of currently available reanalysis datasets allows them to be detected via averaging and construction of mean MJO phase composites.

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Going into Phase 8 would definitely help as we go into late Dec/January....IIRC we actually had a potent phase 8 wave in January 2011 after the huge NAO blocking broke down post-Jan 12th storm. I believe the same thing happened in January 2009 after the NAO blocking broke down early in the month.

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Clarification:

Guys ( gals ) there are two distinct time intervals in question.

The warm up is in tact, between ~ D5 and 10

The anticipation for a pattern change is after that period.

There is no EPS reversal in question... never was.  The EPS isn't backing down on the warmth.

What it is doing, is introducing/emerging a thereafter pattern change, one that has both cross-guidance support in the GEFs and EPS. As well as some other observational tedium... etc.  

However, it should be noted that the extended stuff ( duh ) is by constraint of "extended" lower confidence -

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Clarification:

Guys ( gals ) there are two distinct time intervals in question.

The warm up is in tact, between ~ D5 and 10

The anticipation for a pattern change is after that period.

There is no EPS reversal in question... never was.  The EPS isn't backing down on the warmth.

What it is doing, is introducing/emerging a thereafter pattern change, one that has both cross-guidance support in the GEFs and EPS. As well as some other observational tedium... etc.  

However, it should be noted that the extended stuff ( duh ) is by constraint of "extended" lower confidence -

 

Yeah this is pretty much it....it's still pina coladas, parrots, and banana hammocks next week, but the guidance is starting to get more aggressive for a favorable Pacific beyond that. We still are contending with the big -PNA, but it's not digging the trough as much as before. It's more like PAC NW instead of max anomalies down in CA and even into Baja.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know why since Novie wasn't a torch, but i am seeing some shrubs blooming again. LOL.  

not up our way

...But that did happen later in Novie, after the Halloween deal back in the day.   And I've heard of this around S coastal peeps over the years since, too -

I think it is a real floral biology response to CC, personally ...

Think about basics:   Carpet flora has to be ready to go at a moment's notice, or they get their sunlight subsumed by canopy species.  That's just why in spring, shrubs and lawn green up first.  Get a toe-hold on their nutrient quota before the pigs wake up ... Lol.

But, just bearing that concept in mind, it kinda fits?  If the soil temps, and the ambient air is having difficulty falling to some evolutionary trigger thresholds, this may "confuse" those species into thinking it's April 3 in the middle of mud season.

I tell ya tho... definitely be interesting to check back in around D10 after we've logged 4 days of 65 to 70/ 50 for low

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