December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[ORH_wxman]

It’s a really active pattern for early December. One of these might cut but I think there will prob be a winter threat in here too. 

OP run is still folding over the WPO ridge into an EPO block north of AK out in the extended. That is a really good look to keep the frigid air in Canada and into the northern tier of CONUS. 

Lets hope the EPS shows that happening more. Even last night sort of hinted at it. But with the OP run being pretty insistent maybe it will actually lead the way. 

[ORH_wxman]

Here’s a good look at what I’m talking about

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s a good look at what I’m talking about

That is a frigid look.

[Typhoon Tip]

Do you think George should be allowed to see this Euro run  ..?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you think George is should be allowed to see this Euro run  ..?

Sure.

Post? That is another debate....

[Tatamy]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is alot faster compared  to the gfs and cmc for December 5th

12z GEFS snowfall mean would support the Euro idea of an inland runner for this time period.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure.

Post? That is another debate....

man, if that whole-scale structure were to cinema over easetern N/A about 400 mi E of present ... that would be a very, very high KU registry  -

Kinda interesting about that ...D7.5 - 8.5 looks like an ice storm prelude.  The D8 even sets up pp that would DEFINITELY result in vicious barrier jet...  But then that 55 unit v-max careens in and converts the whole thing into freak show.

Actually, that trough has been in the run for 4 cycles ...gradually losing N-S and gaining longitude.. ( W--> E), fyi -

[Go Kart Mozart]

Cleveland super-bomb evolution, shifted east?

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is definitely showing the folded over WPO ridge now into the EPO domain...look N of AK here

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is definitely showing the folded over WPO ridge now into the EPO domain...look N of AK here

That's more like the look I expect to see next month. I think we get some NAO later in the month, too.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is definitely showing the folded over WPO ridge now into the EPO domain...look N of AK here

Was nice before Trump made America great again ... back whence the Climate Diagnostic Center calculated the EPO index - it's hard to f'n find that now. 

I mean...it's not hugely necessary to see the numerical equivalence...we all recognize the precursors and loading patterns but still.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Was nice before Trump made America great again ... back whence the Climate Diagnostic Center calculated the EPO index - it's hard to f'n find that now. 

I mean...it's not hugely necessary to see the numerical equivalence...we all recognize the precursors and loading patterns but still.

I know....its so difficult to find any computations for that. I need to use that WP/NP index, or whatever it is...buts its inverse, so +WP/NP =-EPO, and vice versa.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Cleveland super-bomb evolution, shifted east?

mm nah. 

Completely different leading set-up --> forcing synopsis.

[weathafella]

Right after Kevin cancelled December the EPS started to improve and it continues to do so.  Here’s another 24 hour height trend and the 12z yesterday was already getting less putrid.

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

That fold over ridge has been appearing for a few runs now. 

[dryslot]

We fold over.

[MJO812]

Models get really cold after the storm in early December around the 5th.

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm nah. 

Completely different leading set-up --> forcing synopsis.

 

78 v2.pdf

[Damage In Tolland]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

Right after Kevin cancelled December the EPS started to improve and it continues to do so.  Here’s another 24 hour height trend and the 12z yesterday was already getting less putrid.

 

 

 

Kev knows 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

 

78 v2.pdf 973.49 kB · 5 downloads

They may end up looking similar but they got there entirely differently.

“completely different leading set up” ??

If you want to cut it up that way all storms are the same because they all rotate counterclockwise - how about that. Lol

[CoastalWx]

There isn’t anything imminent but maybe 12/5 can become something of interest? It’s been slowly getting better from a screaming cutter a couple of days ago. 
Otherwise, the pattern has been getting better on guidance. I do think we’ll play with fire as the trough sets up near AK and the BC coast. But as pointed out, that ridge near the pole does try to help keep the cold in Canada. After that, it does look like ridging near dateline does develop. I guess you could say anything before 12/12 or so is gravy.  I do think we will have a snow chance over the next two weeks.

[Typhoon Tip]

The EPS mean from 00z, days 6 thru 10, argues pretty strongly the Euro is over-correcting with that complete reversal it sold on that run. 

I am not sure ( cross-guidance consideration ) the GEFs means agrees with that either. The recognizable polar-stereographic layout of 500 mb anomalies ( as well as the overnight telecons that are based upon those numerical values ) offer more 'buckled' PNAP than neutral.  

Both it, and the EPS mean, have a whopper Date Line positive anomaly, maintained across multi-day continuity mind you. The standard R-wave distribution ( as a plausible corrective forcing ), argues for lowering heights NE of Hawaii, which concomitantly leads to rising heights into western N/A as the mass-loading/telecon suggestion.    

Short version, less support in its own cluster, or cross guidance.

The only reason I'm spending much time with this tedium is because if anything, there's a bit of a storm signal ...particularly D8-10 out there, as both EPS and GEFs mean appearing to be oscillating the hemispheric amplitude into a meridian tendency.. The the flat oscillation is actually D4-7 and the Euro just sort of locks that beyond which doesn't appear supported.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Congrats everyone on the cmc next weekend 

[Typhoon Tip]

Sell

[rimetree]

If there's anything to learn from the phantom Monday event, sell all models beyond 4 days. That said, the CMC could still be right...it has caught on to correct solutions before other models.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, rimetree said:

If there's anything to learn from the phantom Monday event, sell all models beyond 4 days. That said, the CMC could still be right...it has caught on to correct solutions before other models.

Models shouldnt even go out past 120 hours.

[Torch Tiger]

12z Euro is relatively good for the torch crew.  

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting that the OP euro has been trying to cut that 12/5 system but EPS keep insisting on basically nothing. Everything crunched south. 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

12z Euro is relatively good for the torch crew.  

Doesn't work out that way ..even 'relatively'

That's actually a cold look for us overall, which may or may not be discerned depending on who's looking..heh.

But that deep Canadian vortex helps to reservoir cold that gathers mass from D4 right out to D10.  Subtle confluence in the flow in the incredible gradient that sets up is going to then displace that cold under the westerlies ..

Looking at the the 850s and surface evolution, that is evidently so -  uh... that is, relative to this run.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting that the OP euro has been trying to cut that 12/5 system but EPS keep insisting on basically nothing. Everything crunched south. 

Interested in seeing the 12z EPS mean from this morning...  I mean I wrote about this above earlier this morning, too - how it is evidenced not just in the 00z EPS, but the GEFs too, how the operational Euro is flat flow happy compared to these other means.