Great Snow 1717 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Ray and I aren't talking about this current pattern. Read more . You have been mentioning a pattern change since October lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: You have been mentioning a pattern change since October lol... Not mine but many people had a good pattern at the end of November into December with December being the best month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: What do you like about the current pattern?!?? The current pattern is absolute garbage but we can still get a really good winter. 2014-2015 sucked until late Jan when all hell broke loose and we started getting blizzard after blizzard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 It's only December so I have no clue why people are canceling winter this early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: What do you like about the current pattern?!?? Through the 20th? Not much. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is showing some changes by the holiday's. The pattern should be better if the progression of the MJO is right. You do realize that the pattern could not be much more hostile/worse, that's like saying it might get colder in October than September. Literally zero skill needed for that forecast, though funny that some consider it skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: You do realize that the pattern could not be much more hostile/worse, that's like saying it might get colder in October than September. Literally zero skill needed for that forecast No one is saying this current pattern is good Holy shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: The current pattern is absolute garbage but we can still get a really good winter. 2014-2015 sucked until late Jan when all hell broke loose and we started getting blizzard after blizzard. .. and the odds of another 14-15 is ???? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: .. and the odds of another 14-15 is ???? Extremely low, but it shows just how quickly we can make up for a slow start. 2012-2013 was mild until early Feb. A 2014-2015 is extremely unlikely but a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 is just as unlikely. December usually sucks until late month anyways, so we are burning shit climo with this hostile pattern. January February and March could still be epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Extremely low, but it shows just how quickly we can make up for a slow start. 2012-2013 was mild until early Feb. A 2014-2015 is extremely unlikely but a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 is just as unlikely. December usually sucks until late month anyways, so we are burning shit climo with this hostile pattern. January February and March could still be epic. Yep same down here It's a bonus for us to get snow here before Christmas. I got 8 inches a week before Christmas last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: .. and the odds of another 14-15 is ???? Zero. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ray and I aren't talking about this current pattern. Read more . You’ve been talking about snowers and plowable events since late October. How has that worked ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not mine but many people had a good pattern at the end of November into December with December being the best month. Maybe I miss December...seasonal forecasting is hard enough, but nailing every month is even harder. I missed February last year, but still did well overall. It's just so early to be grading anything... just let it all play out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Yep same down here It's a bonus for us to get snow here before Christmas. I got 8 inches a week before Christmas last winter. I think people are making the mistake of thinking we need December to be great because it’s La Niña so the second half of winter is guaranteed to suck. I made that mistake in my winter forecast with February. December I did expect to finish milder than average but one big storm at the end of the month, still has time for that to happen. Maybe December and early January are worse than my winter forecast had, but mid Jan and Feb are much better. That’s what the implication would be if there is a polar vortex disruption a month or month and a half later than I expected in my winter forecast. I believe that’s what Ray had in his, a polar vortex event later in the winter but remaining strong early on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 @George001Winter 2014-2015 was not good until the March 2015 Snowstorm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, George001 said: I think people are making the mistake of thinking we need December to be great because it’s La Niña so the second half of winter is guaranteed to suck. I made that mistake in my winter forecast with February. December I did expect to finish milder than average but one big storm at the end of the month, still has time for that to happen. Maybe December and early January are worse than my winter forecast had, but mid Jan and Feb are much better. That’s what the implication would be if there is a polar vortex disruption a month or month and a half later than I expected in my winter forecast. I believe that’s what Ray had in his, a polar vortex event later in the winter but remaining strong early on. That wouldn't be your typical Nina progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe I miss December...seasonal forecasting is hard enough, but nailing every month is even harder. I missed February last year, but still did well overall. It's just so early to be grading anything... just let it all play out. Definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’ve been talking about snowers and plowable events since late October. How has that worked ? I'm too dumb to make a forecast. I just look at the progression and what others write. Are you drunk ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, Iceresistance said: @George001Winter 2014-2015 was not good until the March 2015 Snowstorm 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @George001Winter 2014-2015 was not good until the March 2015 Snowstorm Perhaps in Oklahoma ...otherwise known as the land where college football teams play little to no defense.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @George001Winter 2014-2015 was not good until the March 2015 Snowstorm wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: wut? I still remember it, it dumped 4 inches of snow across Oklahoma & Texas. (I measured it too) Winter 2014-2015 was mostly mild in Oklahoma until March 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Perhaps in Oklahoma ...otherwise known as the land where college football teams play little to no defense.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, Iceresistance said: I still remember it, it dumped 4 inches of snow across Oklahoma & Texas. (I measured it too) Winter 2014-2015 was mostly mild in Oklahoma until March 2015 119" imby that all fell in the span of 2 months. My seasonal average is ~40" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: I still remember it, it dumped 4 inches of snow across Oklahoma & Texas. (I measured it too) Winter 2014-2015 was mostly mild in Oklahoma until March 2015 You might want to check the Oklahoma version of the map of the USA ...Oklahoma doesn't border New England.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: You might want to check the Oklahoma version of the map of the USA ...Oklahoma doesn't border New England.. Oklahoma is in the Western US Forum, & it's mostly dead! (Where else should I go if that forum is dead?) Either way, I was born in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 I'm only seeing a WWA across New England at best with the upcoming storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Oklahoma is in the Western US Forum, & it's mostly dead! (Where else should I go if that forum is dead?) Either way, I was born in CT I was only kidding...you are more than welcome. It is a lot better for you to post here than in the cesspool otherwise known as the Off Topic forum... Are you still celebrating Riley's departure??? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I was only kidding...you are more than welcome. It is a lot better for you to post here than in the cesspool otherwise known as the Off Topic forum... Are you still celebrating Riley's departure??? Lol No, Brent Venables is replacing him now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 The longer range still looks fine to me from xmas week and onward....the middle third of the month has looked poorly for a while now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 39 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Oklahoma is in the Western US Forum, & it's mostly dead! (Where else should I go if that forum is dead?) Either way, I was born in CT Gotcha. Yeah from NYC on north and east got hammered from mid Jan onwards It was a really snowy March too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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