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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is showing some changes by the holiday's.  The pattern should be better if the progression of the MJO is right.

You do realize that the pattern could not be much more hostile/worse, that's like saying it might get colder in October than September.  Literally zero skill needed for that forecast, though funny that some consider it skill :D

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3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

You do realize that the pattern could not be much more hostile/worse, that's like saying it might get colder in October than September.  Literally zero skill needed for that forecast 

No one is saying this current pattern is good

Holy shit

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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

.. and the odds of another 14-15 is ????

Extremely low, but it shows just how quickly we can make up for a slow start. 2012-2013 was mild until early Feb. A 2014-2015 is extremely unlikely but a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 is just as unlikely. December usually sucks until late month anyways, so we are burning shit climo with this hostile pattern. January February and March could still be epic.

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Extremely low, but it shows just how quickly we can make up for a slow start. 2012-2013 was mild until early Feb. A 2014-2015 is extremely unlikely but a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 is just as unlikely. December usually sucks until late month anyways, so we are burning shit climo with this hostile pattern. January February and March could still be epic.

Yep same down here

It's a bonus for us to get snow here before Christmas. 

I got 8 inches a week before Christmas last winter. 

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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not mine but many people had a good pattern at the end of November into December with December  being the best month. 

Maybe I miss December...seasonal forecasting is hard enough, but nailing every month is even harder. I missed February last year, but still did well overall. It's just so early to be grading anything... just let it all play out.

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep same down here

It's a bonus for us to get snow here before Christmas. 

I got 8 inches a week before Christmas last winter. 

I think people are making the mistake of thinking we need December to be great because it’s La Niña so the second half of winter is guaranteed to suck. I made that mistake in my winter forecast with February. December I did expect to finish milder than average but one big storm at the end of the month, still has time for that to happen. Maybe December and early January are worse than my winter forecast had, but mid Jan and Feb are much better. That’s what the implication would be if there is a polar vortex disruption a month or month and a half later than I expected in my winter forecast. I believe that’s what Ray had in his, a polar vortex event later in the winter but remaining strong early on.

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I think people are making the mistake of thinking we need December to be great because it’s La Niña so the second half of winter is guaranteed to suck. I made that mistake in my winter forecast with February. December I did expect to finish milder than average but one big storm at the end of the month, still has time for that to happen. Maybe December and early January are worse than my winter forecast had, but mid Jan and Feb are much better. That’s what the implication would be if there is a polar vortex disruption a month or month and a half later than I expected in my winter forecast. I believe that’s what Ray had in his, a polar vortex event later in the winter but remaining strong early on.

That wouldn't be your typical Nina progression.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe I miss December...seasonal forecasting is hard enough, but nailing every month is even harder. I missed February last year, but still did well overall. It's just so early to be grading anything... just let it all play out.

Definitely 

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1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

I still remember it, it dumped 4 inches of snow across Oklahoma & Texas. (I measured it too)

Winter 2014-2015 was mostly mild in Oklahoma until March 2015

You might want to check the Oklahoma version of the map of the USA ...Oklahoma doesn't border New England.. 

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16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Oklahoma is in the Western US Forum, & it's mostly dead! (Where else should I go if that forum is dead?)

 

Either way, I was born in CT

I was only kidding...you are more than welcome. It is a lot better for you to post here than in the cesspool otherwise known as the Off Topic forum...

Are you still celebrating Riley's departure??? Lol

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39 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Oklahoma is in the Western US Forum, & it's mostly dead! (Where else should I go if that forum is dead?)

 

Either way, I was born in CT

Gotcha. Yeah from NYC on north and east got hammered from mid Jan onwards 

It was a really snowy March too.

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