December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There is one right now . . . The EPO is extremely positive & has been Positive for 3-4 Months now.

Kind of splitting hairs though because we’ve managed to dump pretty big cold into Canada.  How is the epo calculated?

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So many garbage posts just whining relentlessly based of volatile long term guidance...this month never looked that cold. It was never supposed to be arctic. But I still think we get a nice stretch around the holidays and probably a few inches mid week.

Yea I see a flip around Christmas week as EPO tanks. Better timing to have a warmup pre Christmas.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Without being dramatic or adding to the emotions in here…, we would want to see this Day 7-14 mean in the Euro Ensembles change a bit to say the least.

Maybe someone can start a thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

There is one right now . . . The EPO is extremely positive & has been Positive for 3-4 Months now.

No, it isn't. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kind of splitting hairs though because we’ve managed to dump pretty big cold into Canada.  How is the epo calculated?

The entire continent was devoid of cold in 2012...he doesn't what he is talking about. One of those people who reads an index and thinks that they have it all figured out.

[Ginx snewx]

People diss the 1980s and talk about forecast busts. How about this one. My forecast was for flurries and light snow to an inch. 22 inches later on Dec 5th 1981, of course, a mighty blizzard hit. My favorite positive bust of all time. Also at the time was the earliest heaviest snow since you guessed it. DEC 5TH 1926

https://www.nytimes.com/1981/12/07/us/unpredicted-storm-brings-new-england-up-to-2-feet-of-snow.html

[tunafish]

We are 5 days into meteorological winter, you fooking twits.

 

The Panic Room thread is ---->

[George001]

The CFS looks really good for Jan and Feb. not a ton of North Atlantic blocking but there is ridging out west, and it looks like the polar vortex while it doesn’t split or anything its on our side of the globe, and is displaced a bit to the south. I’m glad to see there are signs of the long range looking better after the upcoming mild spell. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

The CFS looks really good for Jan and Feb. not a ton of North Atlantic blocking but there is ridging out west, and it looks like the polar vortex while it doesn’t split or anything its on our side of the globe, and is displaced a bit to the south. I’m glad to see there are signs of the long range looking better after the upcoming mild spell. 

A seasonal model is not going to properly diagnose a major disruption of the PV such as a split or displacement, anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, tunafish said:

We are 5 days into meteorological winter, you fooking twits.

 

The Panic Room thread is ---->

Early December is not a snowy time in SNE...people forever that.

[Great Snow 1717]

Feels like spring...

[Angus]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

People diss the 1980s and talk about forecast busts. How about this one. My forecast was for flurries and light snow to an inch. 22 inches later on Dec 5th 1981, of course, a mighty blizzard hit. My favorite positive bust of all time. Also at the time was the earliest heaviest snow since you guessed it. DEC 5TH 1926

 

That's a great article and I have zero memory of it. Living in Waterville Maine and I should remember that event very clearly. I remember very little snow that Fall. Late December was good. The article references Squaw Mountain's manager which is awesome.

[WalpoleJoe]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

People diss the 1980s and talk about forecast busts. How about this one. My forecast was for flurries and light snow to an inch. 22 inches later on Dec 5th 1981, of course, a mighty blizzard hit. My favorite positive bust of all time. Also at the time was the earliest heaviest snow since you guessed it. DEC 5TH 1926

https://www.nytimes.com/1981/12/07/us/unpredicted-storm-brings-new-england-up-to-2-feet-of-snow.html

I remember this storm well. Driving down Park Ave in Cranston to go eat at Chelo's with mom and dad wondering what the hell is going on...don't mean to sound old, but those who are not of that generation can't even fathom the extent to which technology and info have changed the game.

While living through it in the time, you really have no idea what's going on other than thinking this shouldn't be happening....no computer, no live tv updates, no spotter reports to tap into and get info...only thing to do was call the weather bureau recorded phone forecast in Warwick at Green Airport, I think that number was 401-738-1211? Was a great positive bust.

[CoastalWx]

Guidance is pretty hostile next two weeks and likely beyond. I don’t see how that changes. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Guidance is pretty hostile next two weeks and likely beyond. I don’t see how that changes. 

Nah.. winter forecast 

[Iceresistance]

10 hours ago, weathafella said:

Kind of splitting hairs though because we’ve managed to dump pretty big cold into Canada.  How is the epo calculated?

A Positive EPO features a Alaska Trough & the extreme cold stays in Alaska, while a Negative EPO features a Alaska Ridge, & the cold starts to come our way.

 

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_epo_index.php

[dendrite]

Some pretty heavy downpours in CON this morning. Had some snow/sleet at home at the start, but just rain when I left.

[ineedsnow]

Always got the GFS for Friday then late Sunday 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well will people learn that Winter doesn't start till AFTER Christmas.  

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Angus said:

That's a great article and I have zero memory of it. Living in Waterville Maine and I should remember that event very clearly. I remember very little snow that Fall. Late December was good. The article references Squaw Mountain's manager which is awesome.

You wouldn't remember it in Maine...it was all rain up there.  The mets can correct me on this, but I remember an IVT or maybe a CF with a SE to NW orientation.  I think Newport had 30"?

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Guidance is pretty hostile next two weeks and likely beyond. I don’t see how that changes. 

Gfs is showing some changes by the holiday's.  The pattern should be better if the progression of the MJO is right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The entire continent was devoid of cold in 2012...he doesn't what he is talking about. One of those people who reads an index and thinks that they have it all figured out.

 

34 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

A Positive EPO features a Alaska Trough & the extreme cold stays in Alaska, while a Negative EPO features a Alaska Ridge, & the cold starts to come our way.

 

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_epo_index.php

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is showing some changes by the holiday's.  The pattern should be better if the progression of the MJO is right.

Its not worth even trying to offer any worthwhile contribution right now until it snows.....same people who offer very little substance at all will only impugn the effort of others until it snows in their BY. Funny how this behavior is relegated to only those who never put anything worthwhile themselves. Its basically an infantile passive aggressive temper tantrum.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not worth even trying to offer any worthwhile contribution right now until it snows.....same people who offer very little substance at all will only impugn the effort of others until its snows in their BY. Funny how this behavior is relegated to only those who never put anything worthwhile themselves. Its basically a passive aggressive temper tantrum.

It's the same thing every year on the forums. I'm not sure if they are trolling or not even looking at the pattern.

[Torch Tiger]

There's always next winter.

[Great Snow 1717]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah.. winter forecast 

95-96 incoming..  

[George001]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Guidance is pretty hostile next two weeks and likely beyond. I don’t see how that changes. 

It looks bad but aren’t there good signs with the MJO? 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's the same thing every year on the forums. I'm not sure if they are trolling or not even looking at the pattern.

What do you like about the current pattern?!??

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What do you like about the current pattern?!??

 

Ray and I aren't talking about this current pattern. Read more .

[George001]

Even if December is cooked there’s still 3 more months