SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nothing screams holiday glee like this D10 cosmic rays burst coming out us out of the EPS ... 70s incoming 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 70s incoming It's day 10 ...ha. It's denoted 'clown range' for a reason ... obviously we know that - my point is that I'm not too bothered by it because for one.. we've seen this about every 3rd or 4th day in the past two weeks, and then it gets muted some... Some sort of warm up is more likely than not, but the scale and "degree" of it is "up in the air" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nothing screams holiday glee like this D10 cosmic rays burst coming at us out of the EPS ... Sell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sell. Oh it’s suspect for sure … the “day 10”-ness might give a clue. at least it’s not a grinch storm … grinch week instead. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Absolutely brutal looking month right up to and thru Xmas. Furious winter forecast rewrites being worked on now unfortunately 3 3 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Absolutely brutal looking month right up to and thru Xmas. Furious winter forecast rewrites being worked on now unfortunately December busts incoming 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Absolutely brutal looking month right up to and thru Xmas. Furious winter forecast rewrites being worked on now unfortunately Very ugly look. This look worst then just a brief mild pattern. Going to be hard to find winter weather outside the northwest for a while 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Very ugly look. This look worst then just a brief mild pattern. Going to be hard to find winter weather outside the northwest for a while It freaking blows . We’ve got absolutely nothing to look forward to winter wise. Just depressing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 So many garbage posts just whining relentlessly based of volatile long term guidance...this month never looked that cold. It was never supposed to be arctic. But I still think we get a nice stretch around the holidays and probably a few inches mid week. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Rewrites coming 2 3 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rewrites coming Don't give up hope. Its not over. Even if it is mild..we could still have that one epic storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vtrap90 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Don't give up hope. Its not over. Even if it is mild..we could still have that one epic storm. Yeah! If Hawaii can do it, so can we! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Those images are 10 day op runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Those images are 20 day op runs. If it showed a blizzard and Anthony had posted it, he would have been weenied mercilessly. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Very ugly look. This look worst then just a brief mild pattern. Going to be hard to find winter weather outside the northwest for a while You just said earlier that the pattern might get better as we head into late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So many garbage posts just whining relentlessly based of volatile long term guidance...this month never looked that cold. It was never supposed to be arctic. But I still think we get a nice stretch around the holidays and probably a few inches mid week. It's funny seeing people canceling winter and calling busts in early December. Happens every year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: December busts incoming I can honestly tell you that I expected SOME blocking this month, but I think that ship has sailed. That part is wrong IMO.....as the NAO will probably end up a bit more positive this month than I had thought...but I still expect a gradient pattern to materialize before the holidays with the cold source near by .....we do not need the blocking for that. My honest assessment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 40 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Don't give up hope. Its not over. Even if it is mild..we could still have that one epic storm. It's early December for crying out loud 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it showed a blizzard and Anthony had posted it, he would have been weenied mercilessly. This is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can honestly tell you that I expected SOME blocking this month, but I think that ship has sailed. That part is wrong IMO.....as the NAO will probably end up a bit more positive this month than I had thought...but I still expect a gradient pattern to materialize before the holidays with the cold source near by .....we do not need the blocking for that. My honest assessment. Ray, I'm no expert like yourself, but two valid concerns on how rest of winter turns out. (1). Can standing wave break down to allow propagation for mjo into other phases besides 4-6 moving forward. (2). Will the epo and ao stay positive all winter? If that happens, it will be incredibly tough for it to get colder for any time. Hopefully we can get a change eventually whatever is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny seeing people canceling winter and calling busts in early December. Happens every year. Rewrites 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rewrites You're such an integral part of this forum. Thank you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 I don’t know even in a negative pattern it can still snow and it’s only December 5th, Larry Cosgrove said last night there could be a surprise or two even before the pattern starts to change around the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: You're such an integral part of this forum. Thank you We thank you for thee ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Without being dramatic or adding to the emotions in here…, we would want to see this Day 7-14 mean in the Euro Ensembles change a bit to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 It will probably end up where most of the US besides the NW and NE "bake" for December standards...We will find a way to be much "cooler" relatively speaking, not sure that means snow, but definitely not what the rest of the states will see. End of the GEFS still shows some promise, might be a rough 2-3 week period. Rather have it now than in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 33 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Ray, I'm no expert like yourself, but two valid concerns on how rest of winter turns out. (1). Can standing wave break down to allow propagation for mjo into other phases besides 4-6 moving forward. (2). Will the epo and ao stay positive all winter? If that happens, it will be incredibly tough for it to get colder for any time. Hopefully we can get a change eventually whatever is needed. I'm no expert....anyone could do what I do, but it's just so tedious that not many do. Look at all of the guidance...its all pretty emphatically indicating that the MJO gets pretty amplified in phase 7. As far as the polar domain...I think it will be while before the PV receives an crippling blows...like second half of winter. It will take some hits in the shorter term, but should prove fairly resilient. The EPO is def biggest concern and lowest confidence...I am on board with it being a recurrent issue this season and it will average positive...no doubt. But the key is to avoid a total black hole over AK like 2012, and eventually get help from the arctic. I think the answer is yes on both accounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 @Mr. KevinIt's extremely difficult for Teleconnections to be one sided for an entire season, it must flip at SOME POINT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: It will probably end up where most of the US besides the NW and NE "bake" for December standards...We will find a way to be much "cooler" relatively speaking, not sure that means snow, but definitely not what the rest of the states will see. End of the GEFS still shows some promise, might be a rough 2-3 week period. Rather have it now than in January This is very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm no expert....anyone could do what I do, but it's just so tedious that not many do. Look at all of the guidance...its all pretty emphatically indicating that the MJO gets pretty amplified kn in phase 7. As far as the polar domain...I think it will be while before the PV receives an crippling blows...like second half of winter. It will take some hits in the shorter term, but should prove fairly resilient. The EPO is def biggest concern and lowest confidence...I am on board with it being a recurrent issue this season and it will average positive...no doubt. But the key is to avoid a total black hole over AK like 2012, and eventually get help from the arctic. I think the answer is yes on both accounts. There is one right now . . . The EPO is extremely positive & has been Positive for 3-4 Months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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