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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

70s incoming

It's day 10 ...ha.   

It's denoted 'clown range' for a reason ... obviously we know that - my point is that I'm not too bothered by it because for one.. we've seen this about every 3rd or 4th day in the past two weeks, and then it gets muted some...

Some sort of warm up is more likely than not, but the scale and "degree" of it is "up in the air"

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolutely brutal looking month right up to and thru Xmas. Furious winter forecast rewrites being worked on now unfortunately 

 

Very ugly look. This look worst then just a brief mild pattern. Going to be hard to find winter weather outside the northwest for a while 

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49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So many garbage posts just whining relentlessly based of volatile long term guidance...this month never looked that cold. It was never supposed to be arctic. But I still think we get a nice stretch around the holidays and probably a few inches mid week.

It's funny seeing people canceling winter and calling busts in early December. Happens every year.

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

December busts incoming

I can honestly tell you that I expected SOME blocking this month, but I think that ship has sailed. That part is wrong IMO.....as the NAO will probably end up a bit more positive this month than I had thought...but I still expect a gradient pattern to materialize before the holidays with the cold source near by .....we do not need the blocking for that. My honest assessment.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can honestly tell you that I expected SOME blocking this month, but I think that ship has sailed. That part is wrong IMO.....as the NAO will probably end up a bit more positive this month than I had thought...but I still expect a gradient pattern to materialize before the holidays with the cold source near by .....we do not need the blocking for that. My honest assessment.

Ray, I'm no expert like yourself, but two valid concerns on how rest of winter turns out. (1). Can standing wave break down to allow propagation for mjo into other phases besides 4-6 moving forward. (2). Will the epo and ao stay positive all winter? If that happens, it will be incredibly tough for it to get colder for any time. Hopefully we can get a change eventually whatever is needed. 

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It will probably end up where most of the US besides the NW and NE "bake" for December standards...We will find a way to be much "cooler" relatively speaking, not sure that means snow, but definitely not what the rest of the states will see. End of the GEFS still shows some promise, might be a rough 2-3 week period. Rather have it now than in January

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33 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Ray, I'm no expert like yourself, but two valid concerns on how rest of winter turns out. (1). Can standing wave break down to allow propagation for mjo into other phases besides 4-6 moving forward. (2). Will the epo and ao stay positive all winter? If that happens, it will be incredibly tough for it to get colder for any time. Hopefully we can get a change eventually whatever is needed. 

I'm no expert....anyone could do what I do, but it's just so tedious that not many do. Look at all of the guidance...its all pretty emphatically indicating that the MJO gets pretty amplified in phase 7. As far as the polar domain...I think it will be while before the PV receives an crippling blows...like second half of winter. It will take some hits in the shorter term, but should prove fairly resilient. The EPO is def biggest concern and lowest confidence...I am on board with it being a recurrent issue this season and it will average positive...no doubt. But the key is to avoid a total black hole over AK like 2012, and eventually get help from the arctic. I think the answer is yes on both accounts. 

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It will probably end up where most of the US besides the NW and NE "bake" for December standards...We will find a way to be much "cooler" relatively speaking, not sure that means snow, but definitely not what the rest of the states will see. End of the GEFS still shows some promise, might be a rough 2-3 week period. Rather have it now than in January

This is very true.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm no expert....anyone could do what I do, but it's just so tedious that not many do. Look at all of the guidance...its all pretty emphatically indicating that the MJO gets pretty amplified kn in phase 7. As far as the polar domain...I think it will be while before the PV receives an crippling blows...like second half of winter. It will take some hits in the shorter term, but should prove fairly resilient. The EPO is def biggest concern and lowest confidence...I am on board with it being a recurrent issue this season and it will average positive...no doubt. But the key is to avoid a total black hole over AK like 2012, and eventually get help from the arctic. I think the answer is yes on both accounts. 

There is one right now . . . The EPO is extremely positive & has been Positive for 3-4 Months now.

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