MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Cmc is way offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Starting to look like the gfs is out to lunch… almost all other guidance in agreement on almost no impact right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Starting to look like the gfs is out to lunch… almost all other guidance in agreement on almost no impact right now It's still really early to say anything 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Ukie came NW from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Ukie came NW from 12z. Well, it bisected Bermuda at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: 5 days Ya I think that’s a very good point to take into account here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Discard icon. Cmc give 1//2 weight, gfs 1.0 weight, ukmet 0.8, euro 1.2. I think that would give a reasonable consensus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s not bad for an ensemble mean 4-5 days out. It's not, but he was referring to the trend towards all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Model thread is up top. Posted Unc in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: 5 days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 4 4.5 we splitting hairs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 UK seemed to consolidate the lows this run as opposed to 12z with the dual lows at 96 hr. I think it will move further NW the next run. Still was a better solution than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 4.5 we splitting hairs? Snowing at 90 on models here. I know you are farther away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's not, but he was referring to the trend towards all other guidance. However, the GEFS ensembles have been pretty dam consistent for quite a while now. Don’t know if that carry’s any more weight, or if we can gleam any insight from that at this point being 4 days out still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: However, the GEFS ensembles have been pretty dam consistent for quite a while now. Don’t know if that carry’s any more weight, or if we can gleam any insight from that at this point being 4 days out still? Yea, I mean I pretty much followed them for my forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I mean I pretty much followed them for my forecast. Are you still optimistic on a month-end wintry setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 This has been showing up next weekend behind the cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This has been showing up next weekend behind the cutter What cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What cutter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 While the AO, NAO, PNA are all heading in the wrong direction (if u like cold and snow), the MJO is still heading to phase 7 at decent amplitude. Per discussions on this board not sure on the effect it will have, but if it does it will be a good indication of a solid EOM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: While the AO, NAO, PNA are all heading in the wrong direction (if u like cold and snow), the MJO is still heading to phase 7 at decent amplitude. Per discussions on this board not sure on the effect it will have, but if it does it will be a good indication of a solid EOM. I would think it will have a big impact. Especially knowing the AAM is going on the rise too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Hey Scott.. does that product (MJO) run pretty regularly ? I'm curious if the wave coherence may materialize more to the N. The spread on the RMM is more about magnitude than position now - which is a change where I wonder if that "might" mean there is some wave 'inductance' ( I guess ..). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 12:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor. Yep the fast flow ruined this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I guess the silver lining is, if it’s not going to snow at least, outside of some showers, it will be relatively dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: This has been showing up next weekend behind the cutter Who cares what the GFS shows? It’s an abysmal, horrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Who cares what the GFS shows? It’s an abysmal, horrible model So are your posts--people still look at them all the same. Tracking storms is half the fun of November-April. Savor the hunt. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Who cares what the GFS shows? It’s an abysmal, horrible model LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Nothing screams holiday glee like this D10 cosmic rays burst coming at us out of the EPS ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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