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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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Next two cycles are going to be huge as one of the key pieces of energy comes on shore in BC. We’ll see if that changes some of the solutions. When we have a proclivity for a SE ridge with no blocking and you happen to get some energy more consolidated than previously, then that’s how you get those aggressive N trends that we are used to in La Niña events. 

That’s what I’ll be watching for. 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next two cycles are going to be huge as one of the key pieces of energy comes on shore in BC. We’ll see if that changes some of the solutions. When we have a proclivity for a SE ridge with no blocking and you happen to get some energy more consolidated than previously, then that’s how you get those aggressive N trends that we are used to in La Niña events. 

That’s what I’ll be watching for. 

The gfs turning this into a full blown coastal is also kind of on its own right now. Would like to see things move towards that.

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs turning this into a full blown coastal is also kind of on its own right now. Would like to see things move towards that.

Yeah I’m not biting on that yet. It’s possible but you need everything to go right. We’re kind of trying to thread the needle in getting a truly big solution (say a widespread 8-14” type storm). We don’t have any real blocking and we have a SE ridge, but at the same time the flow is quite progressive...so that will limit how far NW it can trend.   

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m not biting on that yet. It’s possible but you need everything to go right. We’re kind of trying to thread the needle in getting a truly big solution (say a widespread 8-14” type storm). We don’t have any real blocking and we have a SE ridge, but at the same time the flow is quite progressive...so that will limit how far NW it can trend.   

Yeah I’d sell on that for now… there Is hope for a cooler flatter solution though 

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If anything I’d be worried about over assessing while it was over the Pacific

You know I talked about this a month ago

Ever since the Boxing Day storm seems like we can’t correct storms bigger when they come onshore; they’re always being proven to have been over-assimilated.

As an aside …I wonder if that is done on purpose to protect against short term corrections toward life-threatening storms. 

“might” be why we’ve been noticing in general how storms keep getting corrected or normalize downwards when they’re passing from mid range to shorter terms in recent winters. 

I’m not 86 in the current one.  I’m just sayin …be prepared for the Gfs to possibly been showing really good continuity based on bullshit assimilation

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If anything I’d be worried about over assessing while it was over the Pacific

You know I talked about this a month ago

Ever since the Boxing Day storm seems like we can’t correct storms bigger when they come onshore; they’re always being proven to have been over-assimilated.

As an aside …I wonder if that is done on purpose to protect against short term corrections toward life-threatening storms. 

“might” be why we’ve been noticing in general how storms keep getting corrected or normalize downwards when they’re passing from mid range to shorter terms in recent winters. 

I’m not 86 in the current one.  I’m just sayin …be prepared for the Gfs to possibly been showing really good continuity based on bullshit assimilation

Yep, it's a concern.

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If anything I’d be worried about over assessing while it was over the Pacific

You know I talked about this a month ago

Ever since the Boxing Day storm seems like we can’t correct storms bigger when they come onshore; they’re always being proven to have been over-assimilated.

As an aside …I wonder if that is done on purpose to protect against short term corrections toward life-threatening storms. 

“might” be why we’ve been noticing in general how storms keep getting corrected or normalize downwards when they’re passing from mid range to shorter terms in recent winters. 

I’m not 86 in the current one.  I’m just sayin …be prepared for the Gfs to possibly been showing really good continuity based on bullshit assimilation

That sounds very 'tin-foil hat', Tip.

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