CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not the whole time. I was in an out running errands and didn't have time to pull up the MJO plot, but should have. this statement made me laugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: this statement made me laugh. I am trying to get a million things done today...saw that the Novie plot decently matched MJO 6/nina plot, and went out on a limb without checking and it blew up on me hahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Man the euro is flat as a pancake next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: this statement made me laugh. Ray grocery shopping…picking fresh fruit with one hand while looking at mjo plots on his phone with the other. Just a normal Saturday in Methuen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Man the euro is flat as a pancake next week. The GFS must try to really sprout a coastal....totally gone wild that run. Gives me like 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ray grocery shopping…picking fresh fruit with one hand while looking at mjo plots on his phone with the other. Just a normal Saturday in Methuen. You should trying fighting with Tip....its one of the most educational exercises imaginable. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Euro is still a nice little snow event but surprised it wasn’t more beefed up. I still think it’s going to come north at some point. Hard to remember sometimes this is over 100 hours out still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man the euro is flat as a pancake next week. atleast we get a little snow at 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 @40/70 Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is still a nice little snow event but surprised it wasn’t more beefed up. I still think it’s going to come north at some point. Hard to remember sometimes this is over 100 hours out still. looks much better though now at 12z 0z was terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, Iceresistance said: @40/70 Benchmark Looks like the Hadley Cell ate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 I am singularly impressed at the stunning continuity of the GFS runs ... Going back like 5 cycles, it's hard to really glean enough differences to mean a whole helluva lot. Comparing that to the Euro... well, all foreign operational runs I have seen for that matter, quite paltry - not sure ... Continuity is one of the forecasting bullet points. But this is obviously a total scenario and street cred ( lol ) that makes things a bit more textured than that. hmm.. This 12z run - does anyone have those frontogenic charts ?? Just looking at the 500 mb evolution, that looks like some decent embedded banding there. Also, this thing is trying to model ( GFS ) as an over-producer. That's some heavy QPF for a flat, open wave. Looks to me as though the GFS initiates a heck of a warm boundary with rich theta-e in the TV and really thrusts it rapidly to about a mid Jersey to CIN type latitude, and with that much 500 mb wind acceleration on the N side of that 90 hour position, you end up with quite the up glide into an exit-entrance mid level jet field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: looks much better though now at 12z 0z was terrible YEah it does look a bit better than 00z. I was expecting a bit more of a jump but there’s an awful lot of time still considering there isn’t any blocking going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: YEah it does look a bit better than 00z. I was expecting a bit more of a jump but there’s an awful lot of time still considering there isn’t any blocking going on. Without a doubt it sharpens a bit and comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 6-10” for dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You should trying fighting with Tip....its one of the most educational exercises imaginable. lol Omg ...let it go ... we were probably in greater part just talking past one another anyone - that's how this shit always goes down. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I am singularly impressed at the stunning continuity of the GFS runs ... Going back like 5 cycles, it's hard to really glean enough differences to mean a whole helluva lot. Comparing that to the Euro... well, all foreign operational runs I have seen for that matter, quite paltry - not sure ... Continuity is one of the forecasting bullet points. But this is obviously a total scenario and street cred ( lol ) that makes things a bit more textured than that. hmm.. This 12z run - does anyone have those frontogenic charts ?? Just looking at the 500 mb evolution, that looks like some decent embedded banding there. Also, this thing is trying to model ( GFS ) as an over-producer. That's some heavy QPF for a flat, open wave. Looks to me as though the GFS initiates a heck of a warm boundary with rich theta-e in the TV and really thrusts it rapidly to about a mid Jersey to CIN type latitude, and with that much 500 mb wind acceleration on the N side of that 90 hour position, you end up with quite the up glide into an exit-entrance mid level jet field. The GEFS is also being somewhat consistent as well, here's the Mean Snowfall up to 7 days out on the 12z, even though that the signal is somewhat weaker compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Looks like a little CJ maybe after? Cold N winds near the shore. Then we get a little more with next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I am singularly impressed at the stunning continuity of the GFS runs ... Going back like 5 cycles, it's hard to really glean enough differences to mean a whole helluva lot. Comparing that to the Euro... well, all foreign operational runs I have seen for that matter, quite paltry - not sure ... Continuity is one of the forecasting bullet points. But this is obviously a total scenario and street cred ( lol ) that makes things a bit more textured than that. hmm.. This 12z run - does anyone have those frontogenic charts ?? Just looking at the 500 mb evolution, that looks like some decent embedded banding there. Also, this thing is trying to model ( GFS ) as an over-producer. That's some heavy QPF for a flat, open wave. Looks to me as though the GFS initiates a heck of a warm boundary with rich theta-e in the TV and really thrusts it rapidly to about a mid Jersey to CIN type latitude, and with that much 500 mb wind acceleration on the N side of that 90 hour position, you end up with quite the up glide into an exit-entrance mid level jet field. GFS is closing mid levels as it passes...thats not a SWFE, but rather late-boom Miller B deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS is closing mid levels as it passes...thats not a SWFE, but rather late-boom Miller B deal This is why it nukes from my area into Maine. Not ready to bite on that yet...emerging consistency, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, Iceresistance said: The GEFS is also being somewhat consistent as well, here's the Mean Snowfall up to 7 days out on the 12z, even though that the signal is somewhat weaker compared to 6z the more I look at this.. .it's sort of a weird rare scenario, of having a decent nascent polar air mass, with a mid let wind field running astride/N of the boundary; in fact..it's hard to single out main velocity tube there...it's like throwing vorticity shrapnel along the polar side. Anyway, the lengthens the time of maximization of QPF mechanics. ...uh, snows and or mixes and or rains for a long time - longer than the total velocity of the ambient atmosphere would suggest. ha. I mean, typically, we don't see it snow for 15 hours with things moving this fast. You know what this reminds me of? Not sure if you were around in 1994... but we started getting into these longish duration events that were also moving fast ( once Xmas was safely behind and ruined... heh). That circumstance was an oddball super synoptic set up where the NAO was so hugely positive it more in essence ...backed SW, and compressed the flow... Then disturbances ran up into the fast field and stretched out and by virtue of extension ...events lasted long. In a way, this is a strong +AO ...but it too is biased S and is compressing matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: the more I look at this.. .it's sort of a weird rare scenario, of having a decent nascent polar air mass, with a mid let wind field running astride/N of the boundary; in fact..it's hard to single out main velocity tube there...it's like throwing vorticity shrapnel along the polar side. Anyway, the lengthens the time of maximization of QPF mechanics. ...uh, snows and or mixes and or rains for a long time - longer than the total velocity of the ambient atmosphere would suggest. ha. I mean, typically, we don't see it snow for 15 hours with things moving this fast. You know what this reminds me of? Not sure if you were around in 1994... but we started getting into these longish duration events that were also moving fast ( once Xmas was safely behind and ruined... heh). That circumstance was an oddball super synoptic set up where the NAO was so hugely positive it more in essence ...backed SW, and compressed the flow... Then disturbances ran up into the fast field and stretched out and by virtue of extension ...events lasted long. In a way, this is a strong +AO ...but it too is biased S and is compressing matters. I've been around since 2003, I was born in CT. This is an unusual setup as well, we don't usually have a big snowstorm anywhere from the Central Plains to the East Coast with a +NAO, +AO, & +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 @Isotherm Hope all is well, bud..see you browsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Yeah I can see that, Ray - I think it may start out as a mid level drive with the boundary moving N slamming into polar air. For a time... earlier, there is then ascent/upglide aloft with the 500 mb wind being strongest on the polar side of the boundary, but as the totality evolves..the the low gets its act mechanically situated, and perhaps from me to you ( axial) up to Maine, we cash in - yeah...it's bit cutesy in detail - but the GFS overall has been impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I've been around since 2003, I was born in CT. This is an unusual setup as well, we don't usually have a big snowstorm anywhere from the Central Plains to the East Coast with a +NAO, +AO, & +EPO No, we don't.... But, it's like these factors got so bad... they're 'reaching around' - hahaha. No but we did discuss this week how the PV is biased on our side of the pole. It's very cold not too far away in Canada, and that changes the map a little - namely...this sort of perfectly timed scenario. Which is what that is... After late Monday finishes grid failure across the area ... just such a cold plume of air circuits through Ontario and it's bite gets just about to southern PA...but already by early Tuesday, this thing's mid level jets are ripping over that boundary... It's like walking by roulette and throwing 5 down on black what the hell, and having it hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No, we don't.... But, it's like these factors got so bad... they're 'reaching around' - hahaha. No but we did discuss this week how the PV is biased on our side of the pole. It's very cold not too far away in Canada, and that changes the map a little - namely...this sort of perfectly timed scenario. Which is what that is... After late Monday finishes grid failure across the area ... just such a cold plume of air circuits through Ontario and it's bite gets just about to southern PA...but already by early Tuesday, this thing's mid level jets are ripping over that boundary... It's like walking by roulette and throwing 5 down on black what the hell, and having it hit. Its events out over the long haul....look at last January haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 GFS looks like a do-over next weekend. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Happy this event is turning into more of a coastal. Great news. See what transpires the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: What does our Icon have to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Liking these trends. Let’s keep it squashed and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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