ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man gfs would be nice. Sort of borderline here, but nice look. soundings kind of look like a ice threat more than a snow threat to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Ukie is a miss and cmc is flatter than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: soundings kind of look like a ice threat more than a snow threat to me Didn’t examine much, but that is icy south of pike and inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Didn’t examine much, but that is icy south of pike and inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: soundings kind of look like a ice threat more than a snow threat to me It’s not a ZR sounding over this way really maybe until the end. Maybe a little further southwest its more. It’s mostly heavy snow to some sleet maybe ending as FZDZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Didn’t examine much, but that is icy south of pike and inland. Are you referring to the GFS? I really think that will trend to more snow than ice ( especially that all the other models are flattered with just snow ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s not a ZR sounding over this way really maybe until the end. Maybe a little further southwest its more. It’s mostly heavy snow to some sleet maybe ending as FZDZ Which is generally par for the course with these types of systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s not a ZR sounding over this way really maybe until the end. Maybe a little further southwest its more. It’s mostly heavy snow to some sleet maybe ending as FZDZ This looks icy to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My point is that the MJO has been coherent. I think this is like the HC phenomenon in that yes, it can be reduced, but not eradicated...how much is it muted is the question. Not much throughout November. MJO coherency isn't my point... - if it matters. It's coherent, obviously ...but it's in the southern hemisphere - south of the Equator. It is not going to transmit it forcing through the "Equatorial wall" ... like this, - the flux of latent heat would move outward ( aloft) and away from the Equator toward those mid latitudes... What could change is if the wave grew laterally ... the wave its self can extend further through the equatorial 'boundary'. If that happens, convection ignition would then initiate modulation ( maybe ...). Fwiw - here's excerpt from CPC's recent publication: • A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December. Any coherence of the intraseasonal signal is more likely to be south of the equator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: This looks icy to me That entire sounding is below freezing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 And yes I see best guess precipitation type snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: This looks icy to me Icy? The ENTIRE sounding is below freezing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That entire sounding is below freezing. This is why your a pro and I'm not lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Gfs has more snow next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 The MJO is getting stronger & is currently in Phase 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That might be close to pellets but that’s cold. The ice threat is more towards Kevin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 That’s a nice flash freeze look down this way. Phil coming for cars on the expressway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie is a miss and cmc is flatter than 0z The gfs continues south. As does everything else. Sheared out POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Gfs ensembles are legit right to the coast….. solid low end warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The gfs continues south. As does everything else. Sheared out POS Man you are like a fart in an oxygen tank. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Ukie is slightly more amped than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: MJO coherency isn't my point... - if it matters. It's coherent, obviously ...but it's in the southern hemisphere - south of the Equator. It is not going to transmit it forcing through the "Equatorial wall" ... like this, - the flux of latent heat would move outward ( aloft) and away from the Equator toward those mid latitudes... What could change is if the wave grew laterally ... the wave its self can extend further through the equatorial 'boundary'. If that happens, convection ignition would then initiate modulation ( maybe ...). Fwiw - here's excerpt from CPC's recent publication: • A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December. Any coherence of the intraseasonal signal is more likely to be south of the equator. MJO coherency IS your point whether you realize it or not because you are implying that it is not leaving an imprint on the N hemispheric pattern, when in fact it has been. It has been stuck in phase 6 for awhile now...and it is no coincidence that the the Nov 2021 composite: Looks an awful lot like the composite for phase 6 of the MJO during la nina ENSO: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man you are like a fart in an oxygen tank. What is there to be excited about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What is there to be excited about ? Nice reverse psychology bit you’ve got going. Solid bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: gfs also likes the idea of a changeover to a little snow Monday night I learned 35, 40 years ago that rarely happens... in SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I learned 35, 40 years ago that rarely happens... in SNE More often than not you're right, usually the spine of the Berks into far NW CT have the best chance from time to time but points east everything downslopes and dries out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: MJO coherency IS your point whether you realize it or not because you are implying that it is not leaving an imprint on the N hemispheric pattern, when in fact it has been. It has been stuck in phase 6 for awhile now...and it is no coincidence that the the Nov 2021 composite: Looks an awful lot like the composite for phase 6 of the MJO during la nina ENSO: What the f are you talking about. I just said "it's obviously coherent" and your telling me that IS my point.. No shit Sherlock. ...So you must mean, 'coherent as in detectably forcing the Northern Hem' ? wrong - the MJO is not enforcing the NH when it is not even emerged barely out of the Marine continent ... thus, that's not what's causing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nice reverse psychology bit you’ve got going. Solid bit. I’m more looking forward to Mondays big winds . That tells you how likely I think this storm is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now