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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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Region 4 is in la nina territory...coldest anomalies are centered eastern half of region, but that is not strongly east based...its still basin wide. Take a look at years like 2005, that had negative anomalies relegated to eastern zones.

I wish the modoki site would open back up...it assigns EMI index.

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2 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

As a coastal dweller (college in Cambridge), I'd want that high west of Maine to avoid easterly winds, but favorable look nonetheless for pike on north on the 18z GEFS.

 

Ensemble SLP 18z 12  3 21.png

That images right there is a N ageo wind on the west side of a CF pressed right astride Rt 128 …

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15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hmmm…do I have the balls to bench Allen and stream someone like Carr on Sunday instead. I can’t imagine a ceiling game from him against Pats D plus wind.

Allen might run for 100 yards and still end up scoring 20+...I'm a Phins fan, so hopefully they both lose, lol

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42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will be enough.

Yeah it’s not abundantly clear how much that limits forcing N … but it has to - latent heat flux moves away from the source but does not cross the equatorial asymptote 

personally I don’t think the MJO … i just suspect that it’s in trouble because of HC anyway. It’s been having trouble coupling, and now it’s S eq based, and south of the eq virtual axes in which the atmospheres of the hemispheres don’t tend to interact  

The math of all that does not add up to influencing the northern hemisphere…

Now if the wave suddenly expands across the equator and starts generating convection on that side … the flux moves away and we’ll see but then again my personal hang up still have to work the HC

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That images right there is a N ageo wind on the west side of a CF pressed right astride Rt 128 …

yeah, I didn't mean to imply that it isnt, if that's how I came off. Still a little tenuous for people right along the coast right? Anyways, that's a minor detail at this point.

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4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

yeah, I didn't mean to imply that it isnt, if that's how I came off. Still a little tenuous for people right along the coast right? Anyways, that's a minor detail at this point.

Heh. I just read ‘east wind’ in the context fear. Lol

i looked at that and thought good, all safe and snug and tucked in for no worries. 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

First run of the 0z regime

 

Icon

61aade03308ad.png

I know you mean well but I really hate these charts… This is not the icon model run - this is an interpretive algorithm spitting out snow based on who knows what math they use. Goes for all snowfall layouts regardless of model. 

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