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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that's why I didn't get the punting notion....its not a slam dunk snowy month, but shouldn't be punted, either.

Ray, what your thoughts on the easterly winds weakening to allow mjo to propagate correctly instead of hitting brick wall in warm phases Bamwx alludes to? Also, east based niña trending? Just trying to be optimistic 

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Ray, what your thoughts on the easterly winds weakening to allow mjo to propagate correctly instead of hitting brick wall in warm phases Bamwx alludes to? Also, east based niña trending? Just trying to be optimistic 

Way too much focus on la nina at this point...its basin wide and centered slightly east. Not a ton to be gleaned from that, but its not going to become purely east based anytime soon. As for the MJO, I am certainly no expert on that, but everything I have seen seems to imply that it will be on the move, which favors my wintery expectation later this month. Even if its weak...certainly won't hurt.

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I’m not a believer in this storm for my area. I believe it will rain, not snow due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking preventing the storm from going inland and flooding us with mild air. Unfortunately, that means Metfan will also get rain. I hope I’m as wrong as I was last time, but the pattern doesn’t look great for this one.

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not a believer in this storm for my area. I believe it will rain, not snow due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking preventing the storm from going inland and flooding us with mild air. Unfortunately, that means Metfan will also get rain. I hope I’m as wrong as I was last time, but the pattern doesn’t look great for this one.

My area down here sucks for snow  . There is a reason why I only average 28 inches .

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

I’m not a believer in this storm for my area. I believe it will rain, not snow due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking preventing the storm from going inland and flooding us with mild air. Unfortunately, that means Metfan will also get rain. I hope I’m as wrong as I was last time, but the pattern doesn’t look great for this one.

You'll get some snow, but probably a messy event

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I'll say this...we are going to get a SSW in the second half that will rock typical nina climo..you can take that to the bank. Remember I said this when all the natural gas trading groupies start to scramble later this season because it will happen. Pretty big failure on my part if it doesn't. 

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll say this...we are going to get a SSW in the second half that will rock typical nina climo..you can take that to the bank. Remember I said this when all the natural gas trading groupies start to scramble later this season because it will happen. Pretty big failure on my part if it doesn't. 

JB is hyping a pv split at 50mb is underway right now leading to 84-85 type winter lol or similarities to it

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1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said:

JB is hyping a pv split at 50mb is underway right now leading to 84-85 type winter lol or similarities to it

It comes right back though. It’s a brief split or interruption. Ray is referring to something more substantial later in the winter which is possible.

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ask the experts about the Euro. Ever since that stupid upgrade it's garbage. I remember the model use to nail storms days out.

Forcast accuracy for North America was probably not a major concern when the changes were made.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll say this...we are going to get a SSW in the second half that will rock typical nina climo..you can take that to the bank. Remember I said this when all the natural gas trading groupies start to scramble later this season because it will happen. Pretty big failure on my part if it doesn't. 

Helped us last year in February. 

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