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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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14 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Do they trend north or do they just under estimate the expanse of QPF in the day 3-5 range? 

They do come north, And the qpf field is usually quite large too, Coming up from the SW and gathering gulf moisture with it, But it had a sheared look to it on today's modeling

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Unless the high position drastically changes (which is still possible), the sfc will almost undoubtedly trend colder based on where it is N of CAR. Model bias 101....eroding the sfc cold too fast, esp when a stout arctic high straps its fanny into a row boat in the St LAwrence seaway near Quebec City.

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that banana needs to be rotated counter clockwise about 90 degrees.

?

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Nothing like a pattern change (short term or long) just before Christmas. Major snowstorm around the 20-22. Below freezing temps through New Year (at least) so kids on vacation can enjoy their sleds, skis, whatever during the Christmas break.  This far out dreaming of a white Christmas is more entertaining than dreaming about the annual grinch storm. 

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26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

?

A typical banana high classic for locking in cold to the coastline is an arc from N of Maine to the Great Lakes region.....not from N Maine to the Atlantic....the latter configuration will still lock in the CAD over the interior, but it will definitely set up a CF somewhere near or west of 128/95 and allow marine air to infiltrate a chunk of the CP.

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I guess if we get 1-2” that is quickly washed away, satisfies your hunger and thus equates to me being wrong. I’ll concede to your great call.  

 

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And I’m not backtracking. 1-2” could be our ceiling lol. Congrats and slap yourself silly with a red tag if it happens. 

We’ll see how it plays out.  Nobody’s right or wrong on Friday Luke.   Your ceiling yesterday was “No. Snow. For. Us.”  
 

So we’ll each stand by our calls.  And see how it unfolds. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely correct.  The volatility has been off the charts of late. When it’s(the modeling) doing that, it’s crazy to buy into any one idea in the long term….good or bad. 

Yea, that's why I didn't get the punting notion....its not a slam dunk snowy month, but shouldn't be punted, either.

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