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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There's isn't much of a ptype transition on the soundings...almost snow straight to rain in spots. These things can often see the warm tongue at H75-H8 trend warmer while the sfc trends colder under the inversion. We'll see...still 5 days away.

Unless the high position drastically changes (which is still possible), the sfc will almost undoubtedly trend colder based on where it is N of CAR. Model bias 101....eroding the sfc cold too fast, esp when a stout arctic high straps its fanny into a row boat in the St LAwrence seaway near Quebec City.

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3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Winter 2007-08 we had a lot of these in those ranges.

Had 11 events in the 5.0-9.5" range that winter, mostly SWFEs and only the 8" event in mid-Feb had any IP/ZR, though it had a lot (1.51" LE). 
Of course, 07-08 was singular in having scads of snow events - 21 with 3"+ - and comparatively few P-type issues. 

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