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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Narcan doesn't look like it gives you that much.

I get like 5"....better than I had thought, but tight gradient  near pike.

Sfc is too warm on the GFS which will definitely screw up the NARCAN maps. Sell the sfc warmth W of 128 with the high just N of CAR.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was thinking the same. Some of those solutions naturally have HP in a better placement too. 

I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor.

There is a brief dip in the NAO

nao.sprd2.gif

 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor.

Yeah and on a solution like the Ukie, I saw 500 sharpening and said "here we go" before I saw the surface. I was surprised when I saw it, but the low was sort of already festering before the nrn stream got to it. So yeah, I agree..unless the energy is sheared..it will likely not be a Canadian or even Ukie deal. But, never say never I guess this far out.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Personally, I still wouldn’t count on all that much snow south of like southern NH… at least that’s how I think it plays out… maybe someone like Hubb sneaks in a couple… but I’d say that’s really the southern extent of anything more than a sloppy coating or inch.

I disagree with that...I'd be optimistic for N Mass.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe…. Yet some of these more amped up solutions are kind of a mess right into SNH… lots of non snow gunk… ice, sleet, etc.

Still a long ways to go… lots can change 

No guidance currently....even the GFS is pretty snowy now in this area.

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m out on this one. These always trend unfavorably with no blocking and SE Ridge. Look at this coming Monday what happened. Went snower to screamer to Mainer . Wagons well north IMO

Zero relevance in fact by going further west the baroclinic zone allows the wave along the front to develop and mature further south. I would watch this in your hood. But if it's the reverse psych op then...

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Bread and Butter type of system for up here, I would sign for a season full of them, These always come with plenty of moisture and start sooner then modeled and taint on the end as well.

and usually there's a run that shows 10-14 and a weenie like me gets all hyped.  Then you say something about swfe climo.  Then Brian says something about warm tongues.  Then much of SNE gets a bad attitude.  Then we get like 6-8, maybe 10 isolated.  Been there, done that, bring it.

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