ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Narcan doesn't look like it gives you that much. I get like 5"....better than I had thought, but tight gradient near pike. Sfc is too warm on the GFS which will definitely screw up the NARCAN maps. Sell the sfc warmth W of 128 with the high just N of CAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I was thinking the same. Some of those solutions naturally have HP in a better placement too. I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sfc is too warm on the GFS which will definitely screw up the NARCAN maps. Sell the sfc warmth W of 128 with the high just N of CAR. Makes sense. I wasn't viewing synopitcs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor. There is a brief dip in the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: There is a brief dip in the NAO That not blocking, though....may help with a bit more confluence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That not blocking, though....may help with a bit more confluence... The gfs phases more of the energy while the other models don't. There are several gefs members which are flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: The gfs phases more of the energy while the other models don't. There are several gefs members which are flat. Don't get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get your hopes up. Too late...he's already sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Too late...he's already sucked in. I am optimistic for the pike points northward....hopeful for I 84 and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get your hopes up. I have been tracking this for days with others. They are optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I have been tracking this for days with others. They are optimistic. You aren't getting much, if any snow. Remember this post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Shame the pattern goes to kaka after this system but we know that's going to happen (or pretty sure). Focus on one storm at a time. Get some numbers on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor. Yeah and on a solution like the Ukie, I saw 500 sharpening and said "here we go" before I saw the surface. I was surprised when I saw it, but the low was sort of already festering before the nrn stream got to it. So yeah, I agree..unless the energy is sheared..it will likely not be a Canadian or even Ukie deal. But, never say never I guess this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Personally, I still wouldn’t count on all that much snow south of like southern NH… at least that’s how I think it plays out… maybe someone like Hubb sneaks in a couple… but I’d say that’s really the southern extent of anything more than a sloppy coating or inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Personally, I still wouldn’t count on all that much snow south of like southern NH… at least that’s how I think it plays out… maybe someone like Hubb sneaks in a couple… but I’d say that’s really the southern extent of anything more than a sloppy coating or inch. I disagree with that...I'd be optimistic for N Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree with that...I'd be optimistic for N Mass. Maybe…. Yet some of these more amped up solutions are kind of a mess right into SNH… lots of non snow gunk… ice, sleet, etc. Still a long ways to go… lots can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe…. Yet some of these more amped up solutions are kind of a mess right into SNH… lots of non snow gunk… ice, sleet, etc. Still a long ways to go… lots can change No guidance currently....even the GFS is pretty snowy now in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe…. Yet some of these more amped up solutions are kind of a mess right into SNH… lots of non snow gunk… ice, sleet, etc. Still a long ways to go… lots can change I think nrn tier of MA is a decent shot for several inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Looking forward to an event where I don't have to worry about CJs or subby zones, which I never fail to end up in as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I’m out on this one. These always trend unfavorably with no blocking and SE Ridge. Look at this coming Monday what happened. Went snower to screamer to Mainer . Wagons well north IMO 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ignored It's definitely colder and further south. Just Scooter being Scooter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m out on this one. These always trend unfavorably with no blocking and SE Ridge. Look at this coming Monday what happened. Went snower to screamer to Mainer . Wagons well north IMO Zero relevance in fact by going further west the baroclinic zone allows the wave along the front to develop and mature further south. I would watch this in your hood. But if it's the reverse psych op then... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It's definitely colder and further south. Just Scooter being Scooter Colder or not it still stunk lol. What was wrong with my post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Colder or not it still stunk lol. What was wrong with my post? It stunk for you...not me. You said NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Steve too busy gyrating and didn't see the GFS outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It stunk for you...not me. You said NNE. It does look good for NNE. It wasn't terrible for you, but better up there. I also said I think nrn tier of MA is good for several inches regardless of what any model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It does look good for NNE. It wasn't terrible for you, but better up there. I also said I think nrn tier of MA is good for several inches regardless of what any model shows. Well, GFS looks good for northern MA in any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 There's isn't much of a ptype transition on the soundings...almost snow straight to rain in spots. These things can often see the warm tongue at H75-H8 trend warmer while the sfc trends colder under the inversion. We'll see...still 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Bread and Butter type of system for up here, I would sign for a season full of them, These always come with plenty of moisture and start sooner then modeled and taint on the end as well. and usually there's a run that shows 10-14 and a weenie like me gets all hyped. Then you say something about swfe climo. Then Brian says something about warm tongues. Then much of SNE gets a bad attitude. Then we get like 6-8, maybe 10 isolated. Been there, done that, bring it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Will end up Freak to Maine snower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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