40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Composite did very well in October and November....too bad that part isn't graded. Now watch me whiff on winter lol November forecast composite was about perfect in the east...only flaw was that it didn't really capture the lower heights that persisted near AK very well. The active PAC jet shifted the core of the warmth north of where I had it the west, buried in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 How did the CFS do in Novie? Anyone had that handy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 hours ago, dendrite said: As usual, the cold fronts this time of year are my warm fronts. 33.9F and calm while I wait for enough cold air to advect in aloft to mix the sfc out. The time of year when I just start to refer to everything as "a front" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Significantly improved 11-15 on eps for 0z. All of the ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) like the next Wednesday event as a cold swfe. Good night-day crew take from here.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Congrats Hawaii Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-031430- /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Significantly improved 11-15 on eps for 0z. All of the ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) like the next Wednesday event as a cold swfe. Good night-day crew take from here.... Would this include PVD in any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 November & December…. notorious months for thunderstorms in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: November & December…. notorious months for thunderstorms in New England. We had quite the storm is Westfield. The drive in to Simsbury this morning was interesting, branches and small trees down everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 GGEM UKMET EURO EPS GEFS South of NE for next week. GFS still cuts thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GGEM UKMET EURO EPS GEFS South of NE for next week. GFS still cuts thru. We like the trend… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 hours ago, weathafella said: Significantly improved 11-15 on eps for 0z. All of the ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) like the next Wednesday event as a cold swfe. Good night-day crew take from here.... Yeah I liked that trend. Still would like a tick or two more on beating down that ridge but the trend was there that run. More amplified AK/Aleutian ridge for sure that run. Hopefully we can get away with only a week or less of a junk pattern. If we sneak in a SWFE in 12/8-12/9 even better. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The 06d gfs is like 101 ways not to snow in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Wind damage incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Hopefully the ensembles are right, but I always fear how these come north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Measuring oak leaves in feet today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the ensembles are right, but I always fear how these come north. Eps just ticked north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps just ticked north I expect it to. My gut is this is more MA/NH border on north, but we shall see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I expect it to. My gut is this is more MA/NH border on north, but we shall see. Usually the favored areas I'm chasing a ghost here but the weather has been boring so why not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Usually the favored areas I'm chasing a ghost here but the weather has been boring so why not lol You're cooked and likely so am I. We wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You're cooked and likely so am I. We wait. Better hope the pattern changes because La Nina's are warmer in the 2nd half of winter. Maybe it's different this year and we actually get lucky with blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Better hope the pattern changes because La Nina's are warmer in the 2nd half of winter. Maybe it's different this year and we actually get lucky with blocking. I'm fine with whatever. If it's warm, I have a honey do list, so that's good for it lol. It does look better in the longer range as people have stated. I have been thinking second half of month. It looks like poop prior overall. Doesn't mean it can't snow...just not a wintry look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Measuring oak leaves in feet today. Good morning B Z. The accumulation depth amazes me even from the one mighty oak over my postage stamp. Perhaps if, before dropping, the oak leaves turned snow color it would be, even here, easier to play pretend. As always …. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just thinking about last night... I wonder if these pea-hail reports last night was actually grauple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Better hope the pattern changes because La Nina's are warmer in the 2nd half of winter. Maybe it's different this year and we actually get lucky with blocking. I don't think this one will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Congrats Hawaii Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-031430- /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph I knew it. Hawaii is stealing our snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Just thinking about last night... I wonder if these pea-hail reports last night was actually grauple. If I actually cared about such things, then I would have to dub this a pretty good severe year for SNE...at least by our standards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: I knew it. Hawaii is stealing our snow. I went up to the top of one of those peaks on my honeymoon in 2018...no joke....like 12K. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I actually cared about such things, then I would have dub this a pretty good severe year for SNE...at least by our standards. The number of fall events the past 3-4 years have been the most intriguing. Perhaps with great assistance of dual-pol radar activity but the number of October/November tornadoes the past several years from NY/PA into our region has been pretty remarkable. Thankfully (and this is a trend nationally) they're all weak sauce 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Yea, I'll sell the 8-12" n of the pike on the 00z EURO....I think that is a bit generous. Possible, but that is the upper bounds of the envelop. Will do First Call tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'll sell the 8-12" n of the pike on the 00z EURO....I think that is a bit generous. Possible, but that is the upper bounds of the envelop. Will do First Call tomorrow. I’d feel good up in PF land. These things frequently trend N last minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now