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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I think in order for us to get big changes in the long-term we need to see significant changes across the western Pacific and across Asia. As long as we continue to be in a positive East Asian Mountain torque regime we continue to see wave breaking just off the continent and when combined with enhanced convection/-OLR anomalies across the west-central Pacific this is driving a huge ridge across the central Pacific to west of Alaska with troughing across Alaska. 

What is the state of northern Eurasia/Asian cryisphere ?

 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Matt hugo has been touting the -AAM going positive possibly mid December but we definitely want to see some changes if we can get them to flip this pattern instead of constant warm

AAM/mountain torgues are on my goal list of studying and learning more about over the coming months. I know some of their opinion of them and how much weight they truly hold but I believe understanding their current states and how they've behaved over the previous several weeks to few months can provide tremendous value. Forecasts of these states will only provide as much value as what forecast models are projecting but...when it comes to a changing pattern and a changing state (not just about a particular region but maybe a good part of a hemisphere)...if a change is say going to occur over the U.S. the change has to occur somewhere else first...so identifying where a change is set to occur and going from there is incredibly valuable. I also want to do more studying/assessment of the global pattern as a whole b/c after all everything is connected. Maybe a slight change in the Atlantic results in changes over Europe several days later which results in changes across Asia several days after that and then across the Pacific several days after that and then across the U.S. several days after that (so like a month after the initial change in the Atlantic).

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What is the state of northern Eurasia/Asian cryisphere ?

 

cold 

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6 minutes ago, radarman said:

Down two weeks I heard

 

 
000
NOUS61 KALY 291321
FTMENX
Message Date:  Nov 29 2021 13:21:06

KENX RADAR WILL BE UNDERGOING PEDESTAL REFURBISHMENT AND WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE WITH THIS IMPORTANT MAINTENANC
E. - BJF
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Monday looks quite decent for some severe weather potential. Low-topped squall line type stuff but that is alot of wind aloft and a nice surge of theta-e air with dewpoints climbing into the 50's potentially. There will actually be three mechanisms for wind damage potential here;

1) Presence of steep low-level lapse rates during the day

2) With a line of low topped convection ahead of the front

3) Very steep low-level lapse rates in association with CAA behind the front. 

But in the warm sector...those are some pretty impressive mid/upper level dynamics and of course very strong low-level jet. If we get dews into the 50's and can muster up enough low-level CAPE this will be a decent little event. It's like a lower-grade 12/1/06

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Yep, about the same situation here. Winds were practically dead when I had the dog out a couple hours ago and within the last half hour we've had a couple rumbles of thunder, a quick downpour, and now the winds are blowing consistently. Those temps felt friggin amazing today..what a treat for early december. Glad I could get out and enjoy it before the door is slammed shut once again.

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5 hours ago, weathafella said:

Chrome warned me on that link.

To put it in perspective, Bruce is probably close to 80 years old.  He graduated college 4 years before I did and I'm 75.

Chrome warns on everything ....PIA.

Poor Bruce never did make it back.

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Shoveled an inch of cement this evening so it doesn’t freeze back up into concrete tomorrow. Hopefully Monday can melt it all off and we start anew.

My high was 33.7…back down to 33.2 now. 

Hit 52 here.

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