CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Here is the EPS MJO. Overall it looks like it weakens a bit and also...what will that stuff off of Africa mean? I guess overall given where the convection is, it fits the composites Will and Ray showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have this for phase 7/Dec/Nina Oh nice...mine wasn't Nina-specific, but yeah, its the same idea. That's a very storng signal N of AK which would be good for us. That would shove the gradient south some compared to current guidance. If we can shove that gradient south about 1-2 degrees of latitude from current guidance, then we'd prob be in decent shape. The GEFS haven't been as bad in the LR as the EPS and the OP GFS. Feels like the OP GFS has been consistently ugly out in D11-15....but the GEFS are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Here is the EPS MJO. Overall it looks like it weakens a bit and also...what will that stuff off of Africa mean? I guess overall given where the convection is, it fits the composites Will and Ray showed. Yeah I'm hoping we see a trend more toward the -EPO look that the MJO composite phase 7 maps have as we move closer. It was especially strong on Ray's Nina composite. If that does happen, then we really just have to deal with the turd pattern for a week or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Also without getting too specific, those dashed and solid lines are typically how you expect the convection or subsidence areas to migrate. So if true, then maybe the convection drifts east a bit more and forces ridging more near AK and folds some cold into the US? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The weird part is as Scott said...it wasn't a warm November there. I assume BDR is the closest site to him and they were actually a -1.7 departure for the month. But being close to the shore definitely makes for a much longer growing season. KHVN is the closest and November was +.6 and Oct was +6.5. Nov was running way higher but the last few days of Nov knocked it back quite a bit. 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: His climate seems like Florida. He can run a fruit orchard in the winter. The orchard is in Ryan's hometown. This picture was from Guilford last week on the green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can prob fold up the tent in NYC for a while....unless something lucky happens. It's going to be a gradient pattern....further north the better. Even SNE may struggle in this, but we'll see as we get closer to mid-month. I was just about to tell him the same thing....its going to be 12/2007 lite for a stetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can prob fold up the tent in NYC for a while....unless something lucky happens. It's going to be a gradient pattern....further north the better. Even SNE may struggle in this, but we'll see as we get closer to mid-month. I think NNE will really cash in. SNE will be on the border . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also without getting too specific, those dashed and solid lines are typically how you expect the convection or subsidence areas to migrate. So if true, then maybe the convection drifts east a bit more and forces ridging more near AK and folds some cold into the US? Exactly what I am confident takes place. Polar domain will get less hostile around holidays, but there isn't going to be big blocking until late season IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Oh nice...mine wasn't Nina-specific, but yeah, its the same idea. That's a very storng signal N of AK which would be good for us. That would shove the gradient south some compared to current guidance. If we can shove that gradient south about 1-2 degrees of latitude from current guidance, then we'd prob be in decent shape. The GEFS haven't been as bad in the LR as the EPS and the OP GFS. Feels like the OP GFS has been consistently ugly out in D11-15....but the GEFS are not. Yea, go ensembles...OP is too ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think NNE will really cash in. SNE will be on the border . Pike points north good, I-84 points north servicable. KCON and up is great. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Oh nice...mine wasn't Nina-specific, but yeah, its the same idea. That's a very storng signal N of AK which would be good for us. That would shove the gradient south some compared to current guidance. If we can shove that gradient south about 1-2 degrees of latitude from current guidance, then we'd prob be in decent shape. The GEFS haven't been as bad in the LR as the EPS and the OP GFS. Feels like the OP GFS has been consistently ugly out in D11-15....but the GEFS are not. Use this site for ENSO appropriate monthly MJO composites, guys. MJO Tables - MeteoNetwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly what I am confident takes place. Polar domain will get less hostile around holidays, but there isn't going to be big blocking until late season IMO. We can stomach some early season doldrums if the epo becomes favorable for more than just a passing stretch. Late season blocking has been a reoccurring them lately but if it comes with a puke airmass, SoP will struggle. Your call for Jan being pretty benign is worrisome though. Eventually when we keep relying on a big Feb and March, we’ll shoot some blanks. Long way to go though…nothing is great, nothing is awful yet imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We can stomach some early season doldrums if the epo becomes favorable for more than just a passing stretch. Late season blocking has been a reoccurring them lately but if it comes with a puke airmass, SoP will struggle. Your call for Jan being pretty benign is worrisome though. Eventually when we keep relying on a big Feb and March, we’ll shoot some blanks. Long way to go though…nothing is great, nothing is awful yet imo. The favorable regime is likely to carry over into early Jan, and we could even get a nice phase-change event before another crappy stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one denied a mild period mid month...it was you punting the month that was the source of dissent. Ya that was my only point. I think we’ll have a couple shots at something. Wasn’t trying to be difficult. Perhaps his idea wins the day? But I’m not ready to go their imo just yet. It’s all good, no growling/snarling. NNE Looks to be in great shape, and for me I’d rather have that now being I have a sledding trip planned for 12/26. Than us get in on snow here in SNE in early December, if it has to be one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pike points north good, I-84 points north servicable. KCON and up is great. I'd shift that north a step. I-84 looks precarious, iffy. If you're looking for a "good" winter pattern or stretch of wx. Yeah NNE should do fairly well, overall, unless they're unlucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, Torch Tiger said: I'd shift that north a step. I-84 looks precarious, iffy. If you're looking for a "good" winter pattern or stretch of wx Yea, serviceable implies in the game, but I agree its precarious there...just going by past experience/climo for these regimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Maxed out at 59.2. Slow trickle down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Up to 46.4 now..inversion is breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 around 60° - getting some nice gusts bringing down some stubborn oak leaves prior to my final weekend cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 3 hours ago, dendrite said: https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/qj3p/Lowell/ Sneaky good weenie spot just up the road 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 11/29/2021 at 5:05 PM, Ginx snewx said: Hounds be howlin too cold for the highs on all of those so far. congrats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: too cold for the highs on all of those so far. congrats and shaping out to be horribly off for the weekend and next week. 60 possible on monday vs 33 on that chart. lofl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: too cold for the highs on all of those so far. congrats 39⁰ 29th 37⁰ 30th 44⁰ 1st yea brutally bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 39⁰ 29th 37⁰ 30th 44⁰ 1st yea brutally bad made up numbers. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: and shaping out to be horribly off for the weekend and next week. 60 possible on monday vs 33 on that chart. lofl You are a frigging idiot if you don't think models show volatility. No way you have a met degree. I post those for people to see model output, Zero forecast and never taken as real. Go back to NYC and troll some more teenagers. They are more your size anyways 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: made up numbers. lol Dumbass right from ASOS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 admits models can be volatile. posts the same chart again. lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: admits models can be volatile. posts the same chart again. lol Yet you post 300 hr GFS op changes. Tool troll. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: made up numbers. lol KLZD 39, 37, 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: KLZD 39, 37, 46 He is a bona-fide troll. Should be 5 posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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