Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

You completely gone bro. So Let’s write off 3 weeks right now, cuz we know exactly how the weather is gonna play out over those entire 3 weeks?  Wow, what happened to you? 

Dude. There is nothing to get excited about for weeks. When there is hope, I’ll let you know. Until then, get drunk and wax your sled.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dude. There is nothing to get excited about for weeks. When there is hope, I’ll let you know. Until then, get drunk and wax your sled.

When there is hope, can we still get drunk?  NOP folks may fare better if we get into a true SWFE pattern. I’d probably want to be in NH or ME though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mm there’s a fly in the ointment for an out-and-out warm shits pattern though. 

Variance is getting rather extreme across the mid latitudes of the continent, N-S across that mean polar boundary. Your mixing and snowing within 50 miles on the N side … nearing 60 on the S.  Moreover, it’s vacillating like an unmanned firehouse every other run. 

The reason for that is because (we discussed this earlier ) the +AO/ strong PV structure is displacing/biased axial node(s) toward  our side of the hemisphere.
 
That’s a crucial bias; it changes the map a bit. It’s compressing the height south and offering all kinds of confluence contention … also pressing cold air unusually far south under very fast Westerly mlv jets. 

If it were not for that we probably would just go inferno… but at least day 5  through 11 or 12, I don’t think it’s going to be as cut and dry as a straight up Pacific dominant pattern. It could … sure. But there is hope for winter enthusiasts. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't buy anything I'm seeing on the GFS ensembles after 12/10.  Look at the northern hemisphere views and everything just stops moving after 12/10, like an entire hemispheric "block".  It seems unusual and I don't think that's actually going to happen - unless it's some sort of common artifact of being the end of the ensemble run.

Just something that stuck out to me - even on the 500 mb map...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dude. There is nothing to get excited about for weeks. When there is hope, I’ll let you know. Until then, get drunk and wax your sled.

Lol…for weeks?  Ok Dude, you got it.
 

When it snows during your “weeks” window of nothing going on, we’ll have to bump this post. 
 

Sled already waxed and ready…N. Maine in line for some good snow over these next few weeks.  Very exciting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I wouldn't buy anything I'm seeing on the GFS ensembles after 12/10.  Look at the northern hemisphere views and everything just stops moving after 12/10, like an entire hemispheric "block".  It seems unusual and I don't think that's actually going to happen.

Probably not a good idea to buy anything on any ensembles 10 plus days out, the way they’ve been changing every day. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol…for weeks?  Ok Dude, you got it.
 

When it snows during your “weeks” window of nothing going on, we’ll have to bump this post. 

Yes. 3 weeks, no accum snow for you. Write it down. Maybe we can sneak something in before d10 and if we do, I’ll be happy you nailed a great ‘anything can happen’ forecast. But expect cold, rain, warm thru dec20. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Probably not a good idea to buy anything on any ensembles 10 plus days out, the way they’ve been changing every day. 

True.  Just inserting some debate to the "it ain't gonna snow the next 3 weeks" discussion.  Hard to tell if that's going to actually happen if you can't get any semblance of an actual weather pattern that might make sense past 10 days.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes. 3 weeks, no accum snow for you. Write it down. Maybe we can sneak something in before d10 and if we do, I’ll be happy you nailed a great ‘anything can happen’ forecast. But expect cold, rain, warm thru dec20. 

From what we see on ensemble guidance, nothing is set in stone currently. Sure we can strike out completely.  But there are signs that this isn’t a complete golf season set up for 3 weeks either.  
 

But if You wanna call it 3 weeks of nada, on 12/1 that’s cool. I’m not ready to call nothing at this stage. So if you’re right, I’ll be happy you nailed a “Nothing can happen” forecast too. 
 

In the mean time, go get high on edibles and drive em long and far…I’ll let you know when it’s gonna snow. :P

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...