December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we have a few more Quebec highs than that season. That is what really separated that year from something snowier like 2007-2008.

Yea, it came down to luck....the timing sequence was just off that year, and it was on in 2007.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2018-2019 sucked here

[leo2000]

What is going on?. Never seen such a difference in the EPS and GEFS ensembles models. It must have to do with the fact that the EPS has a tough time figuring out the EPO region. All credit goes to Bamwx on twitter. 

 

 

Just yesterday the GEFS was looking like this early yesterday. 

 

 

Then midday looked like this

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2018-2019 sucked here

I don't mean the whole season...I just mean that period as currently modeled verbatim.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

How far are we/what would it take for those 3 ridges to bridge one to the other and shove the cold south?  That looks like a great pattern for Quebec City in terms of gradient

Well... the current D10 EPS ( 00z last night ...) polar stereographic layout is a whopping +AO... But, the PV is off center wrt the geographic NP...  That sort of skews the extent of the positive anomaly down a few decimals or even a whole SD because the AO domain geography is fixed, and then the EOFs are calculating the atmospheric aspect as they move around that fixed 'umbrella' ...I think it extends down to 67.5 N but I'll have to look that up again (  I always forget needling things like that...).

Anyway, point is, ...it's a powerful +AO in that D10 layout, and since it is on our side of the hemisphere ( biased ), that avails/enters a colder look to the NP but warm in the MA... as you noted, the gradient between the two is rather extreme.  

As far as what it takes to 'bridge' - well... for one, lets weaken the PV/ lower the Arctic Oscillation.  

The GEFs evolve the hemisphere similarly, but skewed/biased west overall slightly of the EPS.   I don't see the EPS beyond D10 - Scott I think mentioned that week 1 of the Weeklies may segway off that range...etc... But, the 12z GEFs layout is similar to the 00z re this subject..

In either EPS or GEFs ... it is interesting because both have this +AO displacement look, with the lower nadir height node(s) off center the pole toward our side.  The GEFs in fact does this right out 300+ hours.    In either case, the PV is in tact, more so than not.

I don't know if that means no winter-like corrections to the dailies, though.  That crucial displacement/bias on our side, means confluence ( to me ...) episodic across lower Manitoba-Ontaria-Quebec.  The storm track will run up under that and you're right - could be you know like 15C variance at 850 across 200 miles of baroclinic zone as it probably rolls waves along it.   Almost wonder if if 'icing' chance are above climate... But, if end on on the south side, we go above normal ..big time. 

The mid latitudes are f'ed hard from the Date Line to off the EC, so ... this subtlety about the AO may be the only hope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

What is going on?. Never seen such a difference in the EPS and GEFS ensembles models. It must have to do with the fact that the EPS has a tough time figuring out the EPO region. All credit goes to Bamwx on twitter. 

 

 

Just yesterday the GEFS was looking like this early yesterday. 

 

 

Then midday looked like this

 

 

This is exactly why I am not sure why people are jumping off of cliffs with respect to December right now. Obviously it doesn't look like it will be an epic pattern in a prototypical sense, but the punt conversation is stilly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... the current D10 EPS ( 00z last night ...) polar stereographic layout is a whopping +AO... But, the PV is off center wrt the geographic NP...  That sort of skews the extent of the positive anomaly down a few decimals or even a whole SD because the AO domain geography is fixed, and then the EOFs are calculating the atmospheric aspect as they move around that fixed 'umbrella' ...I think it extends down to 67.5 N but I'll have to look that up again (  I always forget needling things like that...).

Anyway, point is, ...it's a powerful +AO in that D10 layout, and since it is on our side of the hemisphere ( biased ), and enters a colder look to the NP but warm in the MA... as you noted, the gradient between the two is rather extreme.  

As far as what it takes to 'bridge' - well... for one, lets weaken the PV/ lower the Arctic Oscillation.  

The GEFs evolve the hemisphere similarly, but skewed/biased west overall slightly of the EPS.   I don't see the EPS beyond D10 - Scott I think mentioned that week 1 of the Weeklies may segway off that range...etc... But, 12z is similar to the 00z..

In either EPS or GEFs ... it is interesting because both have this +AO displacement look, with the lower nadir height node(s) off center the pole toward out side.  The GEFs in fact does this right out 300+ hours.    In either case, the PV is in tact, more so than not.

I don't know if that means no winter like correction to the dailies, though.  That crucial displacement/bias on our side, means confluence ( to me ...) episodic across lower Manitoba-Ontaria-Quebec.  The storm track will run up under that and you're right - could be you know like 15C variance at 850 across 200 miles of baroclinic zone as it probably rolls waves along it.   Almost wonder if if 'icing' chance are above climate... But, if end on on the south side, we go above normal.

December 2007 was like that...whopper of a +polar domain, but it was biased towards us. Obviously we got lucky getting record snows out of it...

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... the current D10 EPS ( 00z last night ...) polar stereographic layout is a whopping +AO... But, the PV is off center wrt the geographic NP...  That sort of skews the extent of the positive anomaly down a few decimals or even a whole SD because the AO domain geography is fixed, and then the EOFs are calculating the atmospheric aspect as they move around that fixed 'umbrella' ...I think it extends down to 67.5 N but I'll have to look that up again (  I always forget needling things like that...).

Anyway, point is, ...it's a powerful +AO in that D10 layout, and since it is on our side of the hemisphere ( biased ), that avails/enters a colder look to the NP but warm in the MA... as you noted, the gradient between the two is rather extreme.  

As far as what it takes to 'bridge' - well... for one, lets weaken the PV/ lower the Arctic Oscillation.  

The GEFs evolve the hemisphere similarly, but skewed/biased west overall slightly of the EPS.   I don't see the EPS beyond D10 - Scott I think mentioned that week 1 of the Weeklies may segway off that range...etc... But, the 12z GEFs layout is similar to the 00z re this subject..

In either EPS or GEFs ... it is interesting because both have this +AO displacement look, with the lower nadir height node(s) off center the pole toward out side.  The GEFs in fact does this right out 300+ hours.    In either case, the PV is in tact, more so than not.

I don't know if that means no winter like correction to the dailies, though.  That crucial displacement/bias on our side, means confluence ( to me ...) episodic across lower Manitoba-Ontaria-Quebec.  The storm track will run up under that and you're right - could be you know like 15C variance at 850 across 200 miles of baroclinic zone as it probably rolls waves along it.   Almost wonder if if 'icing' chance are above climate... But, if end on on the south side, we go above normal.

Thank you for that explanation Tip!   I like your notion of Scooter highs because that usually means a lot of swfe love up this way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Unless you are fortunate enough to have a perfect pattern with ideal placement of +PP, the route to a plentiful December in terms of snowfall for coastal SNE is positive AO/NAO with a plentiful supply of cold in Canada. Not to say there isn't risk involved with that, but there is more risk for the coast with early season coastals IMHO.

The 12/5/2003 events are not that common.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is exactly why I am not sure why people are jumping off of cliffs with respect to December right now. Obviously it doesn't look like it will be an epic pattern, but the punt conversation is stilly.

Agreed. Lots of volatility for sure. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thank you for that explanation Tip!   I like your notion of Scooter highs because that usually means a lot of swfe love up this way.

Ha ha ha... well, keep in mind,  ... we're sort of in making chicken salad out of chicken shit mode here.    It's like, what we got to work with.... but it at least it isn't zero.   Namely, the biasing of the PV on our side facets.

Remove that, and we may go December 2006 really fast.  Cross that bridge...

Until then, this is misleadingly balmy ( as in, not as much so as it may look at a mere glance):

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed. Lots of volatility for sure. 

That is all I am saying....not that a great December is a slam dunk. I feel like it will be good for at least most of us, but obviously I could be off..... I just don't see how anyone can be confident either way right now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha ha... well, keep in mind,  ... we're sort of in making chicken salad out of chicken shit mode here.    It's like, what we got to work with.... but it at least it isn't zero.   Namely, the biasing of the PV on our side facets.

Remove that, and we may go December 2006 really fast.  Cross that bridge...

Until then, this is misleadingly balmy ( as in, not as much so as it may look at a mere glance):

Exactly this. Its not a textbook winter pattern, but you can't just look at a table of indexes and make assumptions...you need to glean insight from the hemispheric nuances and such. This is not a slam dunk-skunk, and can actually be rather snowy for a lot of us.

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is all I am saying....not that a great December is a slam dunk. I feel like it will be good for at least most of us, but obviously I could be off..... I just don't see how anyone can be confident either way right now. 

Even in a "bad" month overall, two light-moderate events in Demember and many are close to normal snowfall.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Even in a "bad" month overall, two light-moderate events in Demember and many are close normal snowfall.  

Yea, this speaks to what I was saying to Luke about climo...it is a winter month, but for SNE, the season is still ramping up.

[SouthCoastMA]

until modeling stops showing a train of lows traversing the UP of Michigan into Southern Quebec..I'm out. I'll check back in a week and maybe things shake out a bit

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Even in a "bad" month overall, two light-moderate events in Demember and many are close normal snowfall.  

I would rather not experience two light-moderate events where I am being "de-membered" ... but we're all in here for our own reasons, I suppose.

kidding, but you know...some of it has to do with being used to getting snow earlier in recent winters ( I wonder).  One gets that 4 out of 6 years of goodies, they kind of start wondering where it is when that inevitable seventh year may come back to normal.

I can tell you growing up between Michigan and SNE and throughout my adult years, ... man, the 1980s were absolutely butt bruising trying to get a white x-mas done.  Not because of Grinch this or that either.  It was like planetary-screwed... It just didn't kick in until after xmas, and I was told by High School teachers ( dating myself - ) that I February was our big month ... and from what I had experience through the early 1990s that was closer to realistic.   Thru that time, we only Currier&Ived maybe 2 white xmas ( I think ). Otherwise, a lot of brown ground ...sometimes frozen ground, Decembers of boredom lore -

I betcha we wouldn't be having this discussion if this was 1988.  We would be making winter predictions for Jan - Mar.

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would rather not experience two light-moderate events where I am being "de-membered" ... but we're all in here for our own reasons, I suppose.

kidding, but you know...some of it has to do with being used to getting snow earlier in recent winters ( I wonder).  One gets that 4 out of 6 years of goodies, they kind of start wondering where it is when that inevitable seventh year may come back to normal.

I can tell you growing up between Michigan and SNE and throughout my adult years, ... man, the 1980s were absolutely butt bruising trying to get a white x-mas done.  Not because of Grinch this or that either.  It was like planetary-screwed... It just didn't kick in until after xmas, and I was told by High School teachers ( dating myself - ) that I February was our big month ... and from what I had experience through the early 1990s that was closer to realistic.   Thru that time, we only Currier&Ived maybe 2 white xmas ( I think ). Otherwise, a lot of brown ground ...sometimes frozen ground, Decembers of boredom lore -

I betcha we wouldn't be having this discussion if this was 1988.  We would be making winter predictions for Jan - Mar.

Of course December '89 proved that it can wall-to-wall winter in December, it's just extremely rare (especially that degree of extended cold)

[ORH_wxman]

No shortage of SWFE opportunities next week on the Euro. They might not work out but the chances are there. Beats something like the first 10-12 days of Dec 2018 IMHO....when we were sitting there in a cold pattern waiting for a single storm and watched central Virginia get 18" of snow and then the pattern flipped and we ran the table the rest of the month with nada.

[dryslot]

Some of these will trend colder as we get closer with that cold air in canada pressing down.

[Baroclinic Zone]

47 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2018-2019 sucked here

Got 1/2 my winter total in one storm.  Measured 18" in the Jan 4th storm.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Got 1/2 my winter total in one storm.  Measured 18" in the Jan 4th storm.

Your mixing up 2017-2018 and 2018-2019....1/4/18 was the huge storm. In 2019, our one big one was 3/4/19 (esp for SE areas). We had several moderate events though in Jan/Feb that year but they favored more interior than where you are.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your mixing up 2017-2018 and 2018-2019....1/4/18 was the huge storm. In 2019, our one big one was 3/4/19 (esp for SE areas). We had several moderate events though in Jan/Feb that year but they favored more interior than where you are.

You're right.  I had my initial snow on 11/15 of 6" than proceeded to go 2+ months (65 days) without any snow.  That another 3 weeks for my 3rd snowfall.  March ended well though.

[Typhoon Tip]

D10 looks unrealistic ( Euro ..) but that overall between D5 and the end of the run ...that's a wild 5 days of changeability.

Much in concert with what we were just discussing, with a very fast, gradient saturated environment between southern Canada and the OV... 

D7 is a SWFE --> Miller B that happens so quickly that there's really no time to change that event from wintry to straight rain in the interior - ...but christ details at this range for that type of synoptics is utterly futile.

[tamarack]

21 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Of course December '89 proved that it can wall-to-wall winter in December, it's just extremely rare (especially that degree of extended cold)

For sure.  Many NE sites show Dec 1989 being 4°+ colder than the 2nd coldest.  No other month has such a spread between 1st and 2nd coldest.  (For warmest "gaps" see Dec 2015.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your mixing up 2017-2018 and 2018-2019....1/4/18 was the huge storm. In 2019, our one big one was 3/4/19 (esp for SE areas). We had several moderate events though in Jan/Feb that year but they favored more interior than where you are.

December 2018 actually proked us and got the mid atl.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some of these will trend colder as we get closer with that cold air in canada pressing down.

With any luck at all, yea.

[tamarack]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your mixing up 2017-2018 and 2018-2019....1/4/18 was the huge storm. In 2019, our one big one was 3/4/19 (esp for SE areas). We had several moderate events though in Jan/Feb that year but they favored more interior than where you are.

I'd revise "esp for SE areas" to "not NNE sites" - even at PWM that was the 4th or 5th largest that snow season and farther north it was even less significant.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@MJO812@RUNNAWAYICEBERG and @HIPPYVALLEY check PMs

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With any luck at all, yea.

12z EPS shows some of this happening too.