December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It starts before up here, December is a winter month.

No question where you are.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not the rest of the month.

Wrong.

Perhaps ... perhaps not.

But the specter of winter 'abeyance' is certainly there and trending...    

I realize you were probably answering back to the prior poster's pessimism/hyperbole/jest to some degree.  But ...  that AA phase of the Pacific is showing up in both the EPS and GEFs after Dec 8-10 pretty brightly.   There are differences between the two, in how the westerlies orient upon approach to the western continental forcing, but by and large, I've seen big warm ups begin that way. 

Rising heights N-NE of Hawaii, when both 55 N and 30 N are fully integrating ...doesn't typically go too well for winter enthusiasts over eastern N/A.  With modest negative anomalies in the EPO domain space? The prior posters 'hyperbole' is understandable if not necessary. 

I mean I don't give a shit... I really don't. I see it objectively and just say bluntly what things looks like.   Of the two below, I'd personally weight the PNA as 80% of the forcing ballast in determining precipitation and temperature anomaly distribution, and let the NAO modulate like Robbin in the Batman relationship. Lol. Anyway...  What I'm seeing is that the verification (vague green curve ) has been well-enough aligning wrt the bolder black line, which is the verification.   So, the telecons have been verifying reasonably well.  

So what can we glean from that?

Good question -   ..we just got done musing in that Winter thread, how these telecons have seemed less able to drive said P and T distribution, as a recurring confidence rattler.  I think we just suffered that, actually...

If you look back along these respective curves above, note November 16 through very recently:  in that span, we saw a rise in the PNA, and a tandem fall in the NAO.  Normally, ( in 1980 ..heh ), you move the PNA from  -.5 SD to +1.5 ( or a near total index change of 2 SD range), there is some kind of larger scale synoptic distorting perturbation requiring a restoring event - ...that means, a storm lol.   Yet, these were ineffective index modalities - which I find interesting.  I think we got the cold, part of that..   My personal suspicion is that the observable base line wind velocity, which really in theoretical arguments means the heights are compressed ... , as being pretty culpable in limiting how individual wave spaces behavior, can interact/force against that background canvas - it gets really heavy Meteorologically having to take someone through vorticity equations ...but if the ratio between the larger synoptic value, and the individual wave-space value, approaches 1 ...that means there is less ability for cyclogenic responses in the atmosphere.     

Well...anyway, ... when the flow is compressed, it is fast, and this robs away from the small scale impulses.  'nother way to look at it, the above +PNA/-NAO movement was below the threshold, a threshold that requires greater anomaly magnitudes when the flow is compressed.    

 

[forkyfork]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My bad.

Better?

 

worse

[512high]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps ... perhaps not.

But the specter of winter 'abeyance' is certainly there and trending...    

I realize you were probably answering back to the prior poster's pessimism/hyperbole/jest to some degree.  But ...  that AA phase of the Pacific is showing up in both the EPS and GEFs after Dec 8-10 pretty brightly.   There are differences between the two, in how the westerlies orient upon approach to the western continental forcing, but by and large, I've seen big warm ups begin that way. 

Rising heights N-NE of Hawaii, when bother 55 N and 30 N are fully integrating ...doesn't typically go too well for winter enthusiasts over eastern N/A.  With modest negative anomalies in the EPO domain space? The prior posters 'hyperbole' is understandable if not necessary. 

I mean I don't give a shit... I really don't. I see it objectively and just say bluntly what things looks like.   Of the two below, I'd personally weight the PNA as 80% of the forcing ballast in determining precipitation and temperature anomaly distribution, and let the NAO modulate like Robbin in the Batman relationship. Lol. Anyway...  What I'm seeing is that the verification (vague green curve ) has been aligning with decent correlation coefficients wrt the bolder black line, which is the verification.   So, the telecons have been verifying reasonably well.  

So what can we glean from that?

Good question -   ..we just got done musing in that Winter thread, how these telecons have seemed less able to drive said P and T distribution, as a recurring confidence rattler.  I think we just suffered that, actually...

If you look back along these respective curves above, note November 16 through very recently:  in that span, we saw a rise in the PNA, and a tandem fall in the NAO.  Normally, ( in 1980 ..heh ), you move the PNA from  -.5 SD to +1.5 ( or a near total index change of 2 SD range), there is some kind of larger scale synoptic distorting perturbation requiring a restoring event - ...that means, a storm lol.   Yet, these were ineffective index modalities - which I find interesting.  I think we got the cold, part of that..   My personal suspicion is that the observable base line wind velocity, which really in theoretical arguments means the heights are compressed ... , as being pretty culpable in limiting how individual wave spaces behavior and interact against that background canvas - it gets really heavy Meteorologically having to take someone through vorticity equations ...but if the ration between the synoptic value and the individual wave-space value approaches 1 ...that means there is less ability for cyclogenic responses in the atmosphere.     

Well...anyway, ... when the flow is compressed, it is fast, and this robs away from the small scale impulses.  'nother way to look at it, the above +PNA/-NAO movement was below the threshold, a threshold that requires greater anomaly magnitudes when the flow is compressed.    

 

wasn't the flow fast last winter as well?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

wasn't the flow fast last winter as well?

Except in January when we needed more gradient.....lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It starts before up here, December is a winter month.

Yeah, but no on lives there compared to E MA,CT,RI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps ... perhaps not.

But the specter of winter 'abeyance' is certainly there and trending...    

I realize you were probably answering back to the prior poster's pessimism/hyperbole/jest to some degree.  But ...  that AA phase of the Pacific is showing up in both the EPS and GEFs after Dec 8-10 pretty brightly.   There are differences between the two, in how the westerlies orient upon approach to the western continental forcing, but by and large, I've seen big warm ups begin that way. 

Rising heights N-NE of Hawaii, when both 55 N and 30 N are fully integrating ...doesn't typically go too well for winter enthusiasts over eastern N/A.  With modest negative anomalies in the EPO domain space? The prior posters 'hyperbole' is understandable if not necessary. 

I mean I don't give a shit... I really don't. I see it objectively and just say bluntly what things looks like.   Of the two below, I'd personally weight the PNA as 80% of the forcing ballast in determining precipitation and temperature anomaly distribution, and let the NAO modulate like Robbin in the Batman relationship. Lol. Anyway...  What I'm seeing is that the verification (vague green curve ) has been aligning with decent correlation coefficients wrt the bolder black line, which is the verification.   So, the telecons have been verifying reasonably well.  

So what can we glean from that?

Good question -   ..we just got done musing in that Winter thread, how these telecons have seemed less able to drive said P and T distribution, as a recurring confidence rattler.  I think we just suffered that, actually...

If you look back along these respective curves above, note November 16 through very recently:  in that span, we saw a rise in the PNA, and a tandem fall in the NAO.  Normally, ( in 1980 ..heh ), you move the PNA from  -.5 SD to +1.5 ( or a near total index change of 2 SD range), there is some kind of larger scale synoptic distorting perturbation requiring a restoring event - ...that means, a storm lol.   Yet, these were ineffective index modalities - which I find interesting.  I think we got the cold, part of that..   My personal suspicion is that the observable base line wind velocity, which really in theoretical arguments means the heights are compressed ... , as being pretty culpable in limiting how individual wave spaces behavior and interact against that background canvas - it gets really heavy Meteorologically having to take someone through vorticity equations ...but if the ration between the synoptic value and the individual wave-space value approaches 1 ...that means there is less ability for cyclogenic responses in the atmosphere.     

Well...anyway, ... when the flow is compressed, it is fast, and this robs away from the small scale impulses.  'nother way to look at it, the above +PNA/-NAO movement was below the threshold, a threshold that requires greater anomaly magnitudes when the flow is compressed.    

 

The just isn't much left to say. 

We will see what happens.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, but no on lives there compared to E MA,CT,RI.

Exactly…he’s in interior Maine.  Not SNE. So yes where he is it definitely starts in December.  But not here all the time. 

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, but no on lives there compared to E MA,CT,RI.

What the fuk are you talking about nobody lives here? Of course not the population of E MA, CT and RI, So does that make it any different that winter starts earlier in december because we don't have the same population?

[ORH_wxman]

Lol....dryslot took the bait

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol....dryslot took the bait

More to weather then just EMATT

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess. 

You average like 4" before Christmas, Luke.

[Torch Tiger]

It's been a long time since the subforum was on edge like this.  Precisely one year

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

It's been a long time since the subforum was on edge like this.  Precisely one year

Exactly my point...and all of SNE with the exception of my area had above average snowfall.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You average like 4" before Christmas, Luke.

thats what she said.

I expect snow that sticks late in November and the 1st half of Dec up here...but it usually isn't significant and/or melts quickly.  The snowpack should start 2nd half Dec and get beat up a couple of times but stay around mostly until early-mid March.  That is my general expectation for a slightly better than average winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Except in January when we needed more gradient.....lol

Boom!  exactly dude - we laugh uneasy, because that was a problem.

In fact, I know why that happened last year.  ...or at least I really have a hypothesis. 

Opposite of what is happening now ( since Nov 16 -> how long it lasts, notwithstanding).  Something I have been noticing as of late ... the lion's share of colder height anomalies over this polar stereographic perspective have been over our side of the Hemisphere...

Below is the D10 EPS mean just to make the point, not a forecast.   And it may be too much of a good thing so to speak.  This was the other direction ...I think the western Pacific through Siberia was very deep in heights last January, ...during that 2.5 week span in which we saw gradient become perhaps too relaxed as you intimated...  Why?  who the heck knows...but the 'global wave #' might have had something to do with where the PV tended to slip off the axis - if you will - and meander to where it did back then, and recently. 

 

[dryslot]

If we lose another Dec to below avg snow up here it will be tough unless Jan-Feb are well above avg to get to avg again this season.

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's just too easy.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly my point...and all of SNE with the exception of my area had above average snowfall.

Actually I did not have AN snow. 2/2....

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually I did not have AN snow. 2/2....

Haha Well, most of the area did.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Haha Well, most of the area did.

Yeah just to my west. Good ole Georgy did despite his assumptions of SNE averaging multiple blizzards every year.

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, 512high said:

wasn't the flow fast last winter as well?

Yeah... and like Will mused, not the whole way ...but much of the time. 

This has been happening more frequently since the early 2000s.  

As an aside - which I find totally cool man ... - there has been recorded, a marked increase in near or at record air-land relative speeds set over the oceanic basins in the last 15 or so years.  I mean, think about this physically ...a 60 ton aircraft has to fly at a certain speed to maintain enough lift to offset gravity and keep in suspended at intended altitude.   If not... those on the aircraft tend to 'Value Jet,' and they don't want that -

..heh..  Anyway, keeping it simple. For head winds, this creates lift at relative throttle position, because as the aircraft moves into a headwind, that arithmetically moves mass over the wings that the engines don't need to provide by forward thrust.  When going the opposite direction, this becomes negative, and the aircraft has to thrust more - fly faster relative to the ground - in order to push the same mass over the wings and create that lift.

SO, ... west to east flights have been haulin' ass.  There have been like ...3.5 hour LaGaurdia to Heathrow London flights.  It's been pretty interesting. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's just too easy.

A couple of dilapidated paper mills and some lobster boats. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If we lose another Dec to below avg snow up here it will be tough unless Jan-Feb are well above avg to get to avg again this season.

You know what ... I get why your saying this buuut...    storms have had a tendency to over produce. 

In fact, it's been getting rather dependable.   If a storm looks middling, you get more points embedded that majored.   If a storm looks major, you get like what happened to Brian last December...etc...  you know?

So, if Dec were to punt even up there... three storms could quota the winter norms inside of a 12 days in January, and you'd still have that perfunctory March yard stick storm up there.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What the fuk are you talking about nobody lives here? Of course not the population of E MA, CT and RI, So does that make it any different that winter starts earlier in december because we don't have the same population?

Go easy on him, he is still in disbelief that the four counties of Western Mass, have hundreds of miles of dirt roads and no high speed Internet in some towns. 

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What the fuk are you talking about nobody lives here? Of course not the population of E MA, CT and RI, So does that make it any different that winter starts earlier in december because we don't have the same population?

Beer,

[forkyfork]

Maine has a current population density of just 43.1 people per square mile, over an area consisting of 35,380 square miles, which makes it the least densely populated state in New England, the American northeast and the eastern seaboard, as well as all states with an Atlantic coastline and all of those states east of the Mississippi River.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Maine has a current population density of just 43.1 people per square mile, over an area consisting of 35,380 square miles, which makes it the least densely populated state in New England, the American northeast and the eastern seaboard, as well as all states with an Atlantic coastline and all of those states east of the Mississippi River.

However, there are over half million people in the Portland Metro area wondering where their winter is?

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Maine has a current population density of just 43.1 people per square mile, over an area consisting of 35,380 square miles, which makes it the least densely populated state in New England, the American northeast and the eastern seaboard, as well as all states with an Atlantic coastline and all of those states east of the Mississippi River.

Ummmmm......couldn't you have just said "east of the mississippi river?

[forkyfork]

it's a paste