December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Baroclinic Zone]

19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

yeah, we need to get the grinch storm out of the way first then we can proceed to winter

All I need to do is look to 2015, 119" all falling in the span of 2 months,

[ORH_wxman]

Still a decent disconnect between GEFS and EPS for mid-month....GEFS are definitely more favorable for winter wx than EPS which look mild/ugly for several days in the 12/12-12/16 range.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a decent disconnect between GEFS and EPS for mid-month....GEFS are definitely more favorable for winter wx than EPS which look mild/ugly for several days in the 12/12-12/16 range.

Heck even next week is a big difference between them.

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He averages as much in December as you do.

Lol Luke needs some edibles, guy is shook. He needs to move back to Jersey where winters really suck.   Sure, if pattern is good it can really snow in December, but there’s a reason why March averages more snow than December.  
 

And I don’t trust these ensembles much lately either, they’ve been pretty bad in the long range. A couple weeks back they showed warmth the last week of November/first week of December. That didn’t play out to well.  I wouldn’t get to invested in any one run of the ensembles..they change each run. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

All I need to do is look to 2015, 119" all falling in the span of 2 months,

And the majority of that fell in a month. 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess. 

Some years it starts in December…some years it doesn’t start until January.  It’s never consistent when it starts in SNE.  You should know this. 
 

When I was in my late teens/early 20’s, I used to always say, it doesn’t really snow here in SNE until after the new year/January. Cuz most years back(1980’s) then that’s the way it went it seemed.  December is always a crapshoot imo. Some years ya cash in..others ya don’t. 

[Damage In Tolland]

What a mess 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What a mess 

Don’t lose faith…it will come. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol Luke needs some edibles, guy is shook. He needs to move back to Jersey where winters really suck.   Sure, if pattern is good it can really snow in December, but there’s a reason why March averages more snow than December.  
 

And I don’t trust these ensembles much lately either, they’ve been pretty bad in the long range. A couple weeks back they showed warmth the last week of November/first week of December. That didn’t play out to well.  I wouldn’t get to invested in any one run of the ensembles..they change each run. 

I think they are right with the overall look which isn't good. However, the details can't be determined. That's why I said the "overall" look. For instance maybe next weeks works out in between mild periods.  But I do think it gets hostile. I'm not trying to illicit emotional responses. just MO. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think they are right with the overall look which isn't good. However, the details can't be determined. That's why I said the "overall" look. For instance maybe next weeks works out in between mild periods.  But I do think it gets hostile. I'm not trying to illicit emotional responses. just MO. 

Understood.

 

And Sure it could be hostile…but normal high temps are hostile still to any type of frozen stuff here in SNE in early Dec. I think we all need to understand that.  

[Spanks45]

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess. 

Coming from the Mid Atlantic, I dont expect to see snow until after Thanksgiving...I can remember snow one time on Thanksgiving, it was maybe an inch or so. Even December didn't produce very much until the last week or so in the month. I was in college at Millersville University from 2001-2005, I remember it snowing a lot in December during those years but that was about it. Point is, living up here, even in the Southern most areas of SNE, I have seen a lot more snow in October/November/December over the past 7 years than I ever did in 30 years in PA/DE. I have also seen a lot of snow in March up here, so if winter is defined by snow chances and cold weather then December and March are more winter like than February has been (outside of maybe last year and 2015).

BTW, I actually saw snowflakes the past 3 days with temps never reaching 40, not bad for the end of November....

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Understood.

 

And Sure it could be hostile…but normal high temps are hostile still to any type of frozen stuff here in SNE in early Dec. I think we all need to understand that.  

Yes, first half of December typically is not loaded with cold and snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess. 

For general readership:  If perhaps more so for numerical convenience than anything else, NOAA climate convention situates December cleanly as a winter month. 

Not intending or desiring to get into any qualms about it ( I realize the discussion is personally skewing - ), but,

winter = DJF,

spring = MAM,

summer = JJA,

autumn = SON. 

Obviously human conventions vs the year-to-year atmospheric behaviors seldom align. It "seems" like folks bend opinions based on the advent of entertaining model solutions, and/or whether there is snow of air and ground, as metric for winter.

If people use "snow" as a winter determining metric, then some years winter starts in February... Other years, in October.  We could either go that route, and just have it annulled every year when winter happened to begin and end, if ever.  Or, we can be grown-ups and just except that winter = variability that ranges from shit we like to shit we hate, and shit in between, and that's just life - but this latter tact takes the fun and 'purpose' out of this engagement, huh.

I'm sure Will or someone of the like could crunch the numbers and figure for the last 200 years. Create some sort of mean snow-density graph.  My hunch for NJ would result like Jan 14 to Feb 20 as a scratch conjecture. SNE is oh Dec 26 to Mar 6 say.  NNE might be Dec 3 to Mar 24

- 'Course, the last 20 years probably stand out as a disruption - more so than any other 20 year period in history? One wonders... 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes, first half of December typically is not loaded with cold and snow. 

1970, 1975, 2007, 2008, 2010.....keep in mind this is for ORH too, the coast had even less on 12/10

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess. 

The first half of the month is not usually snowy...fact, not opinion.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes, first half of December typically is not loaded with cold and snow. 

 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1970, 1975, 2007, 2008, 2010.....keep in mind this is for ORH too, the coast had even less on 12/10

Should of read before responding...I see you guys covered this.

People are just so on edge this season.....there is a reason I implied the earliest we would see anything significant this month was week two, and it may very well be week 3. I don't pull these time table out of my rear. Now, doesn't necessarily mean its right this season, but it was thoroughly researched.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Should of read before responding...I see you guys covered this.

People are just so on edge this season.....there is a reason I implied the earliest we would see anything significant this month was week two, and it may very well be week 3. I don't pull these time table out of my rear.

People are always impatient at the beginning. 2010 was one of the worst too....I remember the epic meltdowns that December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

People are always impatient at the beginning. 2010 was one of the worst too....I remember the epic meltdowns that December.

Maybe this winter will blow and I will be totally wrong...would not be the first time and wouldn't be the last. But it far too early to even suggest that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think 12/2008 got going like the 17th...just as a point of reference.

I had 2.5" on 12/17, then we got nailed beginning the 20th....I actually expect a similar outcome this month.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe this winter will blow and I will be totally wrong...would not be the first time and wouldn't be the last. But it far too early to even suggest that.

I think people think Nina and expect an early start. That's my guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think people think Nina and expect an early start. That's my guess.

Right....but think about it. November was cold and we nearly had a significant snow event. I would argue it has started early, but we just didn't really benefit from it because it was too early and for climo. Now December looks to break for a bit before reloading second half.

Still on tract for the "early" start IMO.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 12/2008 got going like the 17th...just as a point of reference.

Yeah it was really the 12/19 storm...you could count the ice storm on 12/11-12/12 if you wanted to but it only affected part of the interior and it torched a couple days later for a couple days.

2008 is actually an example of a marginal pattern with a ton of cold in Canada that ended up producing despite not a lot of cold down in New England in the means. We were like +2 that month IIRC. But it was very active and with cold lurking around we got 2 or 3 systems timed correctly.

[forkyfork]

2010 this ain't

[forkyfork]

one day in nov vs half of dec

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

one day in nov vs half of dec

My bad.

Better?

 

[tamarack]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1970, 1975, 2007, 2008, 2010.....keep in mind this is for ORH too, the coast had even less on 12/10

Even up here the average thru 12/10 is only 9.9".   By the end of the month it's 24.5".

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was really the 12/19 storm...you could count the ice storm on 12/11-12/12 if you wanted to but it only affected part of the interior and it torched a couple days later for a couple days.

2008 is actually an example of a marginal pattern with a ton of cold in Canada that ended up producing despite not a lot of cold down in New England in the means. We were like +2 that month IIRC. But it was very active and with cold lurking around we got 2 or 3 systems timed correctly.

2008 is one of the best December analogs IMO...I doubled up on it in the composite.

[ice1972]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

People are always impatient at the beginning. 2010 was one of the worst too....I remember the epic meltdowns that December.

Ya wasn't there a total bust of a storm right before NYD or Xmas eve/day before it started snowing in January and just wouldn't stop?  Something where I was supposed to get like a foot and ended up getting slutted bad and got like 3 inches lol........I'd take a slut like that every December if it meant 30" pack by the end of January - all day......

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Winter doesn't start till after Christmas.  People expect sustained cold and snow way too early where people live.

It starts before up here, December is a winter month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The main difference is I think AK area will be more problematic than 2010-2011, as it was in November...but good thing no one forecasted those type of snowfall amounts.