qg_omega Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, that is a bad pattern. The couple of would be snowers that missed east were bad luck...as well as the timing of the NAO block relative to the RNA flex. It’s not bad luck, there is a reason the NAO breaks down when the RNA moves out of the gutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s not bad luck, there is a reason the NAO breaks down when the RNA moves out of the gutter Is there a reason you only have 4 posts left today? Maybe you are feeling "lucky" and they'll make it 6... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Yeeah, re luck versus pattern. We have observed a semi-persistent, massive ridge arc imposing roughly IA-NS ( Nova Scotia) along mid latitudes. Actually rather remarkably fixated at that. The physics of taking shorter wave-length atmospheric perturbations over the rainbow ( haha) ... tends to cancel out storms. You really can add the two wave equations and divide by two... ( sign(S/W) + sign(L/W)) ... divided by 2 If the quotient you get is negative, you get nothin' ... If the quotient is positive, you get somethin' ... Depending how positive(negative) is related to how much you either get, or gets taken away. What we've just seen in the last 2 ... 3 days has been negative, commonly referred to as 'destructive interference' in the vernacular of the science. You could really watch this happen over 12 to 18 hours as light to moderate expression over the eastern Plains/southern Lakes got gobbled up by the negative quotient of the wave arithmetic of present S/W attempting to negotiate with an asshole L/W. lol That's not luck, if they 'know it is there.' Because one who knows and understands the basic wave mechanical interactivity ...Junior in college level dynamics stuff above, would have predicted less occurring. If they did not know that logic above, and just predicted or thought, or wanted ... or "felt" more for other mentality ... they might be inclined to say they were unlucky That's all it is... whether one is right or wrong, without knowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeeah, re luck versus pattern. We have observed a semi-persistent, massive ridge arc imposing roughly IA-NS ( Nova Scotia) along mid latitudes. Actually rather remarkably fixated at that. The physics of taking shorter wave-length atmospheric perturbations over the rainbow ( haha) ... tends to cancel out storms. You really can add the two wave quastions and divide by two... ( sign(S/W) + sign(L/W)) ... divided by 2 If the quotient you get is negative, you get nothin' ... If the quotient is positive, you get somethin' ... Depending how positive(negative) is related to how much you either get, or gets taken away. What we've just seen in the last 2 ... 3 days of has been negative, commonly referred to as 'destructive interference' in the vernacular of the science. You can could really watch this happen over 12 to 18 hours as light to moderate expression over the eastern Plains/southern Lakes got gobbled up by the negative quotient of the wave arithmetic of present S/W attempting to negotiate with an asshole L/W. lol That's not luck, if they 'know it is there.' Because one who knows and understands the basic wave mechanical interactivity ...Junior in college level dynamics stuff above, would have have predicted less occurring. If they did not know that logic above, and just predicted or thought, or wanted ... or "felt" more for other mentality ... they might be inclined to say they were unlucky That's all it is... whether one is right or wrong, without knowing. Yea, if you know exactly how its going to pan out, then sure. Haha Obviously no one is capable of that at extended ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Cloudy/Foggy/Wet/Brown landscape, temperatures in the 40s with a 30-50% chance of rain showers through New Years Day...just how i like my Holiday season to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 nice to see winter for a day here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Less, sure...next to nothing? I disagree.....I guess you can label me as lacking the education, or being too biased to think objectively, but there are others equally qualified in the field as you who feel the same way that I do. Meh.. there's a little hyperbole to that "sentiment" of nothin' vs somethin' Yes yes, of course, it's about more vs less. Although, if you wanna get assholier than thou and strict about it, I got nothin' last night from a very highly negate interaction of sending a modest S/W, ...through and over top a HUGEly powerful ridge ... So, there are extremes that can approach absolute in either direction. But the point is approaching sure. And the wave mechanical balancing stuff is true though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Meh.. there's a little hyperbole to that "sentiment" of nothin' vs somethin' Yes yes, of course, it's about more vs less. Although, if you wanna get assholier than thou and strict about it, I got nothin' last night from a very highly negate interaction of sending a modest S/W, ...through and over top a HUGEly powerful ridge ... So, there are extremes that can approach absolute bother directions. But the point is approaching Totally disregard that.....I misunderstood you. Completely my fault. I had already edited. Once it had actually worked out like that, yea....we got about what would be expected from that compressed flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Damn....if you are a fan of US cloud cover....this is a home run: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Damn....if you are a fan of US cloud cover....this is a home run: If you are a weather fan in the east, the HR hooked foul lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Damn....if you are a fan of US cloud cover....this is a home run: I'll just make pretend that that's a snow pack pic in the northeast instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Totally disregard that.....I misunderstood you. Completely my fault. I had already edited. Once it had actually worked out like that, yea....we got about what would be expected from that compressed flow. yeah I see the edit - ha... Happens to me all the time. Anyway, the GEF - based PNA is struggling out of it's semi-persistent nadir beyond D7 ... The EPS computation 'probably' does so too, just eye-ballin' the graphics over the hemisphere .. .heights tending to rise over the S/W in both the EPS and GEF means. That would be step one in reducing the destructive interference east of Colorado. As far as these wild S/W's driving misty warm sectors ... those events may also succumb to pancaking. We could get one to work out - so to speak ... - for mutilating the system into more of mooshed over-running deal. Problem is...these S/W out there D5+ are over-magnified. Then they have to get corrected to reality anyway... Add that sort of hidden trend, with the above facets... it's not quite as clear that a Lakes cutter has to happen. It could also be a matter of perspectives - these could just turn out to be frontal passages in general. It seems the 06z GFS has enough S/W power conserved to clip SE zones with snow... so, that's one example where S/W wins a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Damn....if you are a fan of US cloud cover....this is a home run: It has that early spring dreary feel to it. Could stay that way with some breaks rest of week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Great sleeping weather. Nothing to influence thee internal dialog to look out at the fun weather... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Is the pattern doing a major change to allow us to finally get our first significant snowfall of the season region-wide for SNE as we head into January and increasing daylight? No. no it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: It’s not bad luck, there is a reason the NAO breaks down when the RNA moves out of the gutter qqanon? WWGRNAWGNAO? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 4 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said: Is the pattern doing a major change to allow us to finally get our first significant snowfall of the season region-wide for SNE as we head into January and increasing daylight? No. no it is not. Sounds like a vice grip garage answer right there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Feels like a post-melt April evening out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Feels like a post-melt April evening out there. Very moist for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 40F at 830 on Dec 29. Can’t get much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 -SN, 29/24°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Steady -SN 32.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: Steady -SN 32.2F Nice! We had steady drizzle for a while at 34F but just cloudy now. Glad somebody in NE is getting snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Nice! We had steady drizzle for a while at 34F but just cloudy now. Glad somebody in NE is getting snow! Yea, drizzle here...34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 If it is going to drizzle, I’m glad temps were over freezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Only 0.3” but it plastered to everything. A little refresher to the wintry feel and the light fog adds a touch. It feels like a rimed morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 -SN, Nothing like a last minute WWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 709 AM EST Thu Dec 30 2021 MEZ019-020-024-025-301500- /O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0022.211230T1209Z-211230T1500Z/ Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Coastal Cumberland- Sagadahoc- Including the cities of New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, and Bowdoin 709 AM EST Thu Dec 30 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Snow accumulation of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Central Interior Cumberland, Androscoggin, Coastal Cumberland and Sagadahoc Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to www.weather.gov/gray.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Lt sn. 27.1FSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Been stuck on 38F give or take 1F since last night. Normal low should be in the low 20s and highs in the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 59 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Been stuck on 38F give or take 1F since last night. Normal low should be in the low 20s and highs in the low 40s. This weather blows. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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