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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, that is a bad pattern.

The couple of would be snowers that missed east were bad luck...as well as the timing of the NAO block relative to the RNA flex.

It’s not bad luck, there is a reason the NAO breaks down when the RNA moves out of the gutter

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Yeeah, re luck versus pattern.

We have observed a semi-persistent, massive ridge arc imposing roughly IA-NS ( Nova Scotia) along mid latitudes.  Actually rather remarkably fixated at that.   The physics of taking shorter wave-length atmospheric perturbations over the rainbow ( haha) ... tends to cancel out storms.  

You really can add the two wave equations and divide by two...

    ( sign(S/W)  + sign(L/W)) ... divided by 2 

If the quotient you get is negative, you get nothin' ... If the quotient is positive, you get somethin' ...

Depending how positive(negative) is related to how much you either get, or gets taken away. 

What we've just seen in the last 2 ... 3 days has been negative, commonly referred to as 'destructive interference' in the vernacular of the science.  You could really watch this happen over 12 to 18 hours as light to moderate expression over the eastern Plains/southern Lakes got gobbled up by the negative quotient of the wave arithmetic of present S/W attempting to negotiate with an asshole L/W.   lol

That's not luck, if they 'know it is there.'   Because one who knows and understands the basic wave mechanical interactivity ...Junior in college level dynamics stuff above, would have predicted less occurring.  If they did not know that logic above, and just predicted or thought, or wanted ... or "felt" more for other mentality ... they might be inclined to say they were unlucky  That's all it is...  whether one is right or wrong, without knowing. 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeah, re luck versus pattern.

We have observed a semi-persistent, massive ridge arc imposing roughly IA-NS ( Nova Scotia) along mid latitudes.  Actually rather remarkably fixated at that.   The physics of taking shorter wave-length atmospheric perturbations over the rainbow ( haha) ... tends to cancel out storms.  

You really can add the two wave quastions and divide by two...

    ( sign(S/W)  + sign(L/W)) ... divided by 2 

If the quotient you get is negative, you get nothin' ... If the quotient is positive, you get somethin' ...

Depending how positive(negative) is related to how much you either get, or gets taken away. 

What we've just seen in the last 2 ... 3 days of has been negative, commonly referred to as 'destructive interference' in the vernacular of the science.  You can could really watch this happen over 12 to 18 hours as light to moderate expression over the eastern Plains/southern Lakes got gobbled up by the negative quotient of the wave arithmetic of present S/W attempting to negotiate with an asshole L/W.   lol

That's not luck, if they 'know it is there.'   Because one who knows and understands the basic wave mechanical interactivity ...Junior in college level dynamics stuff above, would have have predicted less occurring.  If they did not know that logic above, and just predicted or thought, or wanted ... or "felt" more for other mentality ... they might be inclined to say they were unlucky  That's all it is...  whether one is right or wrong, without knowing. 

Yea, if you know exactly how its going to pan out, then sure. Haha Obviously no one is capable of that at extended ranges.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Less, sure...next to nothing? I disagree.....I guess you can label me as lacking the education, or being too biased to think objectively, but there are others equally qualified in the field as you who feel the same way that I do.

Meh.. there's a little hyperbole to that "sentiment" of nothin' vs somethin'    

Yes yes, of course, it's about more vs less.

Although, if you wanna get assholier than thou and strict about it, I got nothin' last night from a very highly negate interaction of sending a modest S/W, ...through and over top a HUGEly powerful ridge ... So, there are extremes that can approach absolute in either direction.

But the point is approaching sure.  And the wave mechanical balancing stuff is true though.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh.. there's a little hyperbole to that "sentiment" of nothin' vs somethin'    

Yes yes, of course, it's about more vs less.

Although, if you wanna get assholier than thou and strict about it, I got nothin' last night from a very highly negate interaction of sending a modest S/W, ...through and over top a HUGEly powerful ridge ... So, there are extremes that can approach absolute bother directions.

But the point is approaching

Totally disregard that.....I misunderstood you. Completely my fault. I had already edited.

Once it had actually worked out like that, yea....we got about what would be expected from that compressed flow.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally disregard that.....I misunderstood you. Completely my fault. I had already edited.

Once it had actually worked out like that, yea....we got about what would be expected from that compressed flow.

yeah I see the edit - ha... 

Happens to me all the time.

Anyway, the GEF - based PNA is struggling out of it's semi-persistent nadir beyond D7 ... The EPS computation 'probably' does so too, just eye-ballin' the graphics over the hemisphere .. .heights tending to rise over the S/W in both the EPS and GEF means.  

That would be step one in reducing the destructive interference east of Colorado. 

As far as these wild S/W's driving misty warm sectors ... those events may also succumb to pancaking.  We could get one to work out - so to speak ... - for mutilating the system into more of mooshed over-running deal.  

Problem is...these S/W out there D5+ are over-magnified.  Then they have to get corrected to reality anyway... Add that sort of hidden trend, with the above facets... it's not quite as clear that a Lakes cutter has to happen.  It could also be a matter of perspectives - these could just turn out to be frontal passages in general.  

It seems the 06z GFS has enough S/W power conserved to clip SE zones with snow... so, that's one example where S/W wins a bit. 

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-SN, Nothing like a last minute WWA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
709 AM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

MEZ019-020-024-025-301500-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0022.211230T1209Z-211230T1500Z/
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Coastal Cumberland-
Sagadahoc-
Including the cities of New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham,
Gorham, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn,
Livermore Falls, Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland,
Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg,
Bowdoinham, Topsham, and Bowdoin
709 AM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Snow accumulation of up to one inch
  and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Central Interior Cumberland, Androscoggin, Coastal
  Cumberland and Sagadahoc Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray..
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