December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[HoarfrostHubb]

37 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Worcester must be nearing some sort of record for least amount of snow this late in the season.

BOS is in the top 10 least snowy Decembers

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOS is in the top 10 least snowy Decembers

It feels like 11-12. Snowier everywhere else, but here. It’s relative, but you get it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It feels like 11-12. Snowier everywhere else, but here. It’s relative, but you get it. 

The polar domain has been much different than that year....heights IVOF AK haven't been as consistently cratered, either.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The polar domain has been much different than that year....heights IVOF AK haven't been as consistently cratered, either.

Oh I know, just speaking of what has happened. Watching the occasional flake puked out under dim sun on Christmas Eve, while it pounds in places like Fairhaven, MA. That effing sucked. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I know, just speaking of what has happened. Watching the occasional flake puked out under dim sun on Christmas Eve, while it pounds in places like Fairhaven, MA. That effing sucked. 

Yea, pretty similar in the snow department, despite the pattern not being as horrendous.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It feels like 11-12. Snowier everywhere else, but here. It’s relative, but you get it. 

Results are similar so far. Doesn’t look to get much better anytime soon either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know most won't take any solace in this, but I do fall back on a small two-fold consolation. I know @Typhoon Tipoften refers to the "dopamine drip" effect in that we impulsively crave the fulfillment of our need for snowfall and model cinema due to a psychological dependence. I think periods like this ultimately act to reduce that to a degree...kind of like a snowfall addict's detox in that its initially the rehab is tremendously painful, but you eventually end up better for it and develop a greater proclivity toward delayed gratification. This also recalibrates our perception and replenishes our enjoyment of the larger, more memorable events that may have seemingly become more ordinary in this age of hyperactivity. Secondly, its also a penance of sorts for having overindulged much of the past couple of decades in that we are now settling the score with the regression gods to a degree...I know I have personally for the past several years, and the larger scale region has as well, albeit to a lesser degree than my specific quadrant of the region.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know most won't take any solace in this, but I do fall back on a small two-fold consolation. I know @Typhoon Tipoften refers to the "dopamine drip" effect in that we impulsively crave the fulfillment of our need for snowfall and model cinema due to a psychological dependence. I think periods like this ultimately act to reduce that to a degree...kind of like like a snowfall addict's detox in that its initially the rehab is tremendously painful, but you eventually end up better for it and develop a greater proclivity toward delayed gratification. Secondly, its also a penance of sorts for having overindulged much of the past couple of decades in that we are now settling the score with the regression gods to a degree...I know I have personally for the past several years, and the larger scale region has as well, albeit to a lesser degree than my specific quadrant of the region.

Get that black coat you got from sending in all your Marlboro points, hop in the Regal, and crank it. The 80s are here.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh... it's all simpler than that.   

Luck, is by definition, a more or less favorable outcome based upon probability.

Forecasting is intrinsic to that - it is by virtue of the science/definitions of "predictability," intrinsically thus based upon probabilities.

Not sure why that facet/logical scope escapes anyone.    

Looking at it more complex:  I wonder if people are getting confused over narrowing the amount of reliance one has upon probability. If one is wholly reliant on probability, they may get rich...they might not.  That is the extend of complexity to that model, though.  Done.  

There is a kind of Relativity in probability and luck.   If one is looking at a system and is predicting a future state of said system based upon observably changing components/analysis, in real time, they are relying on what they see - that is the one and done.  However, there is a dense of array of forces that effect all systems in Nature, that cannot be readily perceived in that way. They more vs less impose changes to outcomes. If so happens to be on the more side, the "odds" ( i.e., luck ) of the result, will not fall in favor of the predictor because the system is "blindly" changing.  If they are less imposing, than the observable, real-time components will tend to lead the result in line with initial predictions. In either case, the reliance is still on probability.

To lower one's reliance on probability, they must improve their ability by having deeper insight... This is usually done by two means: one is to really dig in and ferret out those seductively innocuous, yet discrete forces that 'team up' ( if you will ...), somehow gain sight on what is not readily influencing the systems - thus, limiting reliance upon open chance.   The 2nd way is via wisdom.  There is nothing wrong with the a-priori as a method ( I mean ... don't bother explaining the virtue of that to a Millennial ... heh).  The problem with a-priori is that one runs the risk of being stubbornly locked into presumption.  

The best insight or predictions are some inclusion of both wisdom/experience, together with profounder research. 

It really gets fuzzy, too when emergent properties kick in... where interactions emerge properties that did not exist in the array of primary assumptions.  Now you have primary array, plus 2ndaries...and these 2ndaries may then interact to product tertiary emergent properties... And on and so on, they compound back in and modulate as well.

Genius is the wild-card. It like 'emerges' out of the quantum foam of neuroplastisity and cannot really be explained in and of its self.  We call that "flash of insight" moments. The eureka times.  Einstein used flash of insight like a registry, and then discounted the flashes that were less likely...and he was left with one that was worth proving mathematically - but the flashes of insight happen first.  It's fascinating as a topic, really.. 

Anyway, really all probability is, is a negation of what is unknown, thus making observable what influences a problem.   Kind of like, " ...remove all that is impossible, whatever remains, however seemingly unlikely, must be the truth"   At one end of the sophistication, you have pure guess...at the other, you have an " Occam's Razor " of weather.

[CoastalWx]

I think that was Diane dancing on the car. 

[dryslot]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOS is in the top 10 least snowy Decembers

Must be some zeros in there right?

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, pretty similar in the snow department, despite the pattern not being as horrendous.

The marine air puke has screwed us. These little impulses if they had run into pure arctic air would have way over produced. Not enough contrast in air masses. Get us the consistent cold it will snow. That's a fact Jack cuz Stone Cold says so

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The marine air puke has screwed us. These little impulses if they had run into pure arctic air would have way over produced. Not enough contrast in air masses. Get us the consistent cold it will snow. That's a fact Jack cuz Stone Cold says so

Bad luck?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Bad luck?

No, that is a bad pattern.

The couple of would be snowers that missed east were bad luck...as well as the timing of the NAO block relative to the RNA flex.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Must be some zeros in there right?

Not so rare

 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, that is a bad pattern.

I threw that out there knowing i would get a response, There is no luck involved in any of this, Yes,  Bad pattern, Bad timing.

[Ginx snewx]

Worst Jan Dec combos in BOS 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Bad luck?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I threw that out there knowing i would get a response, There is no luck involved in any of this, Yes,  Bad pattern, Bad timing.

Wherever there is probability, there is luck, but call it as you wish. More often than not, when you get an NAO block like that, we will not be totally skunked at this latitude.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wherever there is probability, there is luck, but call it as you wish. More often than not, when you get an NAO block like that, we will not be totally skunked at this latitude.

Except when you have a -4 sigma -PNA to deal with, Until we get positive heights out there and in Alaska, We kick the can down the road.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Bad luck?

Kaos

[CoastalWx]

18-19 was sort of an asterisk with measuring on the septic tank of metro Boston, but it did pick up after. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kaos

Total

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Except when you have a -4 sigma -PNA to deal with.

At the precise same time, yes.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At the precise same time, yes.

Ended up an offset favoring the -PNA, Latitude helped here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ended up an offset favoring the -PNA

What I am saying is that we likely would have had more snow even if the NAO block had occurred sooner OR later, and was less prominent as the RNA flex ensued...there would have been less deconstructive interference via the compressed flow. That is the chance element of this. Sure, it would have turned to rain for SNE, but there still would have been more snow than was measured in the shredded turds.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18-19 was sort of an asterisk with measuring on the septic tank of metro Boston, but it did pick up after. 

Yea ORH

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Total

Not many know that picture 

[Great Snow 1717]

32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Total