December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Damage In Tolland]

Must have snowed . Heavy dusting 31.8

[HoarfrostHubb]

Boring begets boring

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Must have snowed . Heavy dusting 31.8

Lucky ones in the Pike North had 1.5 to 2 of paste.

[Ginx snewx]

Maybe @JC-CT can pop in and answer this. My clients home is at 477 feet just of 66/87 at the top of the hill. Is it a good weenie spot? The couple of snows have seen heavier up here. Any input would be good.

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lucky ones in the Pike North had 1.5 to 2 of paste.

Light dusting here.  Didn’t even see it until it got lighter out. 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Light dusting here.  Didn’t even see it until it got lighter out. 

Yea confined to 25 mile wide area.

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Light dusting here.  Didn’t even see it until it got lighter out. 

Berks traffic Cam

[radarman]

1.25" and mood flakes

[UnitedWx]

A few mangled flakes last night were all we got. It sounds like just up the street had a couple inches 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 Not sure how you came up with this response, but whatever.

 

14 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Love are some are ever the optimists.

Some are pessimists and some just keep it real and roll with it.

i took it the same way as him, due to the bolded text, but seriously, who really cares lol

[CoastalWx]

I wonder how deep into January we go without the first 1” Snowfall. Or just getting 1” lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Which all says your LR predictions can't predict chaos which means you are just lucky to get it right or unlucky to get it wrong. Your having an unlucky year hopefully your luck changes.

Patterns can be predicted.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No

Yes.

Deal with it-

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Patterns can be predicted.

Just unlucky due to chaos. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Just unlucky due to chaos. 

With respect to snowfall, not the pattern. There is a great deal of luck involved with snowfall, I'm suprised that you can't wrap your mind around that. Kevin, I'm not lol

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wonder how deep into January we go without the first 1” Snowfall. Or just getting 1” lol.

Maybe you go whole month?

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Deal with it-

No luck in weather 

- Schwartz 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With respect to snowfall, not the pattern. There is a great deal of luck involved with snowfall, I'm suprised that you can't wrap your mind around that. Kevin, I'm not lol

LR specific temps and snow is basically voodoo. If we lived at 5h it would be different. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere makes all the teleconnections moot for specific regional snow and temps forecasts 3 to 4 months in advance. The terms luck and due are not based in science at all but rather a human emotion describing their perceived outcome was due to something out of their control. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wonder how deep into January we go without the first 1” Snowfall. Or just getting 1” lol.

Worcester must be nearing some sort of record for least amount of snow this late in the season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

LR specific temps and snow is basically voodoo. If we lived at 5h it would be different. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere makes all the teleconnections moot for specific regional snow and temps forecasts 3 to 4 months in advance. The terms luck and due are not based in science at all but rather a human emotion describing their perceived outcome was due to something out of their control. 

I think LR patterns are somewhat predictable, but I agree with alot of what you are saying. I can also live with your description of luck simply being the elements of variance not within our control...AKA chaos. I just say luck because it's a simpler description. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think LR patterns are somewhat predictable, but I agree with alot of what you are saying. I can also live with your description of luck simply being the elements of variance not within our control...AKA chaos. I just say luck because it's a simpler description. 

Yeah I say luck too in place of "nuanced chaos" because most normal people will look at you like you have 3 heads when you start using that weird jargon.

You can predict all the large scale features generally correct but be totally off on snowfall because of nuances in the flow. This goes back to my "loaded dice" post a couple weeks ago. You can play with loaded dice in your favor but still lose in the shorter term because the dice just happened to roll against you....just like you can beat the casino to a pulp at the roulette wheel for a night because the ball bounced in your favor a few times that night....but if you kept playing it, the casino will come back and beat you because the odds are tilted in their favor.

Same exact idea applies to patterns....a pattern can be generally favorable, but nothing is 100%. We'd all definitely take a pattern that has a 60% chance of producing a big snowstorm over a pattern that has a 30% chance of producing one....but guess what? Sometimes the 30% pattern will produce one and the 60% pattern will not....but that does NOT mean we would take the 30% pattern again going forward. We admit we got "lucky" and hope the pattern gets better.

[moneypitmike]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Luck is involved in science...its called chaos and is the reason for variance. If there were no luck involved in science, then there would be no variance and similar variable would always lead to a similar outcome. But that isn't the case. This is why it's best to view patterns in a probabilisric sense, as opposed to anticipated outcomes.

 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lucky ones in the Pike North had 1.5 to 2 of paste.

Not one of the lucky, I guess.  Just a trace.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I say luck too in place of "nuanced chaos" because most normal people will look at you like you have 3 heads when you start using that weird jargon.

You can predict all the large scale features generally correct but be totally off on snowfall because of nuances in the flow. This goes back to my "loaded dice" post a couple weeks ago. You can play with loaded dice in your favor but still lose in the shorter term because the dice just happened to roll against you....just like you can beat the casino to a pulp at the roulette wheel for a night because the ball bounced in your favor a few times that night....but if you kept playing it, the casino will come back and beat you because the odds are tilted in their favor.

Same exact idea applies to patterns....a pattern can be generally favorable, but nothing is 100%. We'd all definitely take a pattern that has a 60% chance of producing a big snowstorm over a pattern that has a 30% chance of producing one....but guess what? Sometimes the 30% pattern will produce one and the 60% pattern will not....but that does NOT mean we would take the 30% pattern again going forward. We admit we got "lucky" and hope the pattern gets better.

The same for ‘14-‘15. Could easily get a similar look and much much less snowfall. Same idea as you nicely explained. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I say luck too in place of "nuanced chaos" because most normal people will look at you like you have 3 heads when you start using that weird jargon.

You can predict all the large scale features generally correct but be totally off on snowfall because of nuances in the flow. This goes back to my "loaded dice" post a couple weeks ago. You can play with loaded dice in your favor but still lose in the shorter term because the dice just happened to roll against you....just like you can beat the casino to a pulp at the roulette wheel for a night because the ball bounced in your favor a few times that night....but if you kept playing it, the casino will come back and beat you because the odds are tilted in their favor.

Same exact idea applies to patterns....a pattern can be generally favorable, but nothing is 100%. We'd all definitely take a pattern that has a 60% chance of producing a big snowstorm over a pattern that has a 30% chance of producing one....but guess what? Sometimes the 30% pattern will produce one and the 60% pattern will not....but that does NOT mean we would take the 30% pattern again going forward. We admit we got "lucky" and hope the pattern gets better.

Exactly. I also hope people realize that I don't try to use "chaos" as an excuse with respect to long range snowfall calls...I get that its the nature of the beast and it is what it is. That is something that I will mention in the hindsight analysis, as it may make the grading more of C than an F if I got the general pattern right. This is why even though I was pretty accurate with the snowfall totals in that 2014-2015 epic run, the forecast wasn't an "A" in my mind because I missed the polar domain....I was right for the wrong reasons. It goes both ways and I mentioned that. I was "lucky" to have pretty much nailed the snowfall totals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The same for ‘14-‘15. Could easily get a similar look and much much less snowfall. Same idea as you nicely explained. 

I would take that a step further and virtually guarantee a similar look would yield much less snowfall

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. Variance in weather is real, deal with it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would take that a step further and virtually guarantee a similar look would yield much less snowfall

…and the ema weenies would claim to be unlucky.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

…and the ema weenies would claim to be unlucky.

Depends how much less....I mean, we were well over 100" that season....I am talking more like 60-80",  which would be in no way unlucky.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

…and the ema weenies would claim to be unlucky.

What did you have that winter?