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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here come a week's worth of isobaric orgasms over minimum central pressure output, which will attempt to drown out the elephant in the room being that an unimpressive amount of snow will fall where most people live. But hey, Hogscrotum Bay in downeast Maine reads an impressive baro!

Wonder how high the tides will be at Marriedmycousin Light-

Heh yeah, and though we realize the snark in your post here, perhaps motivated out of smoldering frustration ( lol ),  the upshot (for me) is that those excessively deep category 4 hurricane depths are - duh - less likely to verify anyway. Just sayn'.

But, I've long been annoyed that this engagement, which some validate by calling it a hobby ... is really more about a model-cinema create pre-dystopian euphoria/addiction.  Folks are probably more at a sense of loss in the days preceding any event, if the that period of time sans that "charge" they get out of model pornographics.  The storm?  yeah, they're kinda cool.  LOL

How's that for snark?  No, but mid latitude lows tend not to sub 950 at our latitude, though can occur ...very rarely.

Rareness, by convention, should require huge degrees of incredulity and skepticism, particularly for beyond D5's.  But ... alas!  There will be those that don't seem to ascribe or operate within convention - huh. 

I saw some reasons overnight that are more rational, in all seriousness.  Yesterday I wrote that the telecon spreads ( provided by GEF -based) were not altogether very supportive of a big continental mauler low ... like that which the the GFS has been insisting now for ( as far as I can tell...) for some 4 consecutive days of model cycles.  Sometimes more primary,  sometimes more commitment to coastal as a bona fide Miller B .. but carrying the system nonetheless.  Particularly in the PNA.   Still, at the time, there was a tentative trend in the EPS to be more amplified with the same trough ejection through the west - a trend that continued 00z last night.  And that was also when the GGEM runs began nodding to the notion for bombs.  I surmised it is possible that this is one of those rarer times when the higher resolution, more 'souped up' model versions lead the telecon, and that the latter may start opening up to the notion in future cycles. 

That happened ;)   Last night, ...about 1/3 to 1/2 the GEF members instantiate a mode change in the PNA beginning in 6 or so days, one that carries on through week two.  The signal is very new... but, when one surmises a notion, the the notion gets supported ... it makes it hard for the notion creator to dump said notion.  Lol... we'll see how it goes. 

This appears ( to me ..) to be the next significant event, but probably it is in the magnified/over-amped phase that all models regardless seem to do with features in the D6-9 range. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh yeah, and though we realize the snark in your post here, perhaps motivated out of smoldering frustration ( lol ),  the upshot (for me) is that those excessively deep category 4 hurricane depths are - duh - less likely to verify anyway. Just sayn'.

But, I've long been annoyed that this engagement, which some validate by calling it a hobby ... is really more about a model-cinema create pre-dystopian euphoria/addiction.  Folks are probably more at a sense of loss in the days preceding any event, if the that period of time sans that "charge" they get out of model pornographics.  The storm?  yeah, they're kinda cool.  LOL

How's that for snark?  No, but mid latitude lows tend not to sub 950 at our latitude, though can occur ...very rarely.

Rareness, by convention, should require huge degrees of incredulity and skepticism, particularly for beyond D5's.  But ... alas!  There will be those that don't seem to ascribe or operate within convention - huh. 

I saw some reasons overnight that are more rational, in all seriousness.  Yesterday I wrote that the telecon spreads ( provided by GEF -based) were not altogether very supportive of a big continental mauler low ... like that which the the GFS has been insisting now for ( as far as I can tell...) for some 4 consecutive days of model cycles.  Sometimes more primary,  sometimes more commitment to coastal as a bona fide Miller B .. but carrying the system nonetheless.  Particularly in the PNA.   Still, at the time, there was a tentative trend in the EPS to be more amplified with the same trough ejection through the west - a trend that continued 00z last night.  And that was also when the GGEM runs began nodding to the notion for bombs.  I surmised it is possible that this is one of those rarer times when the higher resolution, more 'souped up' model versions lead the telecon, and that the latter may start opening up to the notion in future cycles. 

That happened ;)   Last night, ...about 1/3 to 1/2 the GEF members instantiate a mode change in the PNA beginning in 6 or so days, one that carries on through week two.  The signal is very new... but, when one surmises a notion, the the notion gets supported ... it makes it hard for the notion creator to dump said notion.  Lol... we'll see how it goes. 

This appears ( to me ..) to be the next significant event, but probably it is in the magnified/over-amped phase that all models regardless seem to do with features in the D6-9 range. 

Well my honest answer is that its both for me...no doubt I suffer from that addictive affliction to which you allude, but its also a legit hobby. What validates the latter for me is the hours that I spend researching the craft on an annual basis....that balances the addictive proclivities that are on display for you fine folks to see during the winter season. When I end up expecting decent snow, and am left wiping my ass with the 20+ pages of elaborately scientific description of what did NOT happen, its frustrating....you bet.

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16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Initial batch may dry up as it encounters drier air further east.  Better precip will come when we increase the WAA where the best forcing is.  Could be a nice band.

Yeah this initial stuff shreds as it heads into tri-state region but overnight another pulse looks like it will survive a bit better. Still nothing big but a couple inches wouldn’t be shocking. 

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