Great Snow 1717 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wasn’t the super elnino 2016? He’s saying 2015. 15-16... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, there is zero doubt this particular ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere. I understand the HC ENSO dampening phenomenon, but this one has had very robust MEI and atmospheric foot print all along. It's no coincidence this year...its la nina. I mean, there is usually going to be SOME intraseasonal forcing variation, but this one is def not in the same ball park as the past several ENSO events. Def the most impressive event since the super el Nino and most impressive la nina since 2010-2011. ... Hope you had a good morning opening presents in with icing going on... nice. As far as your concern above, absolutely ... well, most likely. But yeah of course it is. No argument at all. Like I stated - and still believe will be the case ... - this year will have shared real-estate, sometimes more ... sometimes less reflecting the La Nina, relative to climate expectations - " ..I thought this year would pass the hemisphere in and out of La Nina.." ( just to be clear - ) .. Certainly so far since say, mid November, this journey's been consistent with La Nina destructive interference ... some telecon correlations - MJO being one of them, not correlating well, or like behaving weird. Frankly, as far as the HC damping stuff - that needs clarity too: The 'damping' part as an HC effect, is a hypothesis that as far as I am aware, only on my part. But I'm sure with the vast number of heads in the business, I'm not the only one scratching head.. It's not about that. Just that it's not sent through rigor. That said, HC expansion in and of its self, that much is not hypothesis. It's empirical. The HC part of the total Walker circulation model has/begun to expand outside of the ENSO over recent decades ... That is by virtue of geometry ( really ...) disconnecting the equatorial ENSO's direct latent heat diffusion model, ever more; that separation is the damping. It's not so much a physical damping like holding it down; more so the lowering the ability of ENSO's direct modulation because of the growing disconnect. The advent of a powerful +EAMT signal in the late mid range/ .. especially extended blends, that would tend to modulate the Pacific circulation toward a newer paradigm than recent weeks. Whatever emerges: does it constructively vs destructively interfere with La Nina. Early indicators appear to suggest latter, as more and more individual GEF/EPS members ( using that metric indirectly ...) are beginning to emerge for Phase 8. Plus, the AO is is correcting down. It'll be interesting to see these indexes over the coming dayts, because if they continue to emerge this way, that would be competing against the La Nina footprint, and could herald one of those times when we hemisphere less reflects the cool ENSO mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, dendrite said: We can always go higher. Looks like an 07-08 map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 44 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Looks like an 07-08 map I’ve seen maps like that start up north then end up over DIT or Gynx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ray with 12” and areas 10mi NW of him get 25”? and Mt tolland with 5”. Hate to see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Wasn’t the super elnino 2016? He’s saying 2015. 2015-16. His years are the autumnal portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 48 minutes ago, weathafella said: 2015-16. His years are the autumnal portion. Gotcha. Thank you Jerry. Merry Xmas pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Looks like an 07-08 map Only off by one magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Wasn’t the super elnino 2016? He’s saying 2015. Fall 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Costanza 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ray with 12” and areas 10mi NW of him get 25”? I have 20"+ on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Gotcha. Thank you Jerry. Merry Xmas pal. Merry Christmas JD! I think you qualified for a white Christmas right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 In the end, a net addition, an awful driveway, and a stronger pack. And another day helping the pond ice thicken. We’ll see about Wednesday Thursday , maybe too warm, but after Jan 1 we get a good stretch to build on this bullet proof pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Looks like a possible delayed but not denied theme beginning to show up on operational runs. At least it appears the potential is there for some more than nuisance events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 On a sadder note, tough day for the trolls that locked in a Christmas torch in SNE a week ago. Maybe next year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: On a sadder note, tough day for the trolls that locked in a Christmas torch in SNE a week ago. Maybe next year. They're probably right. Too bad there's nothing to watch for the remainder of the week. 32* and bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Just now, moneypitmike said: They're probably right. 32* and bleh. Oh I’d put money on it lol. We got lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, IowaStorm05 said: Merry Costanza Happy Festivus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: On a sadder note, tough day for the trolls that locked in a Christmas torch in SNE a week ago. Maybe next year. Meh, pretty shitty day weather wise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Merry Christmas JD! I think you qualified for a white Christmas right? Yes sir…only an inch and half but it held up and it was white. We take and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh, pretty shitty day weather wise. I wouldn’t proclaim it the best day, but I’d take this over last year’s debacle ten times out of ten. Hopefully we can roll something nice through the region in the next few weeks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 Had some sagging trees at home. ...hit 495 and just a nuisance trace of a glaze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Real winter. Can you imagine 20 inches of snow and an inch of ice 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Real winter. Can you imagine 20 inches of snow and an inch of ice When you can't get snow yourself, find a forecast for somewhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Real winter. Can you imagine 20 inches of snow and an inch of ice Now that’s a high impact event, ha. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: When you can't get snow yourself, find a forecast for somewhere else. When did you become so cynical oh wait 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Foggy out there tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: When did you become so cynical oh wait Right when I posted in the winter panic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Where's that wretched rag @forkyfork? 31F max | 1.0" new | depth 4.0" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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