Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Len Ticular said:

Image of Stotm Total Snowfall

I’m glad my eyeball on the snow amount I reported was verified. I was getting all panicky and paranoid when someone asked if I used a ruler. I thought I was being accused of overestimating or something. I mean we all sort of know what an inch is like because it happens a lot. But this was just a significantly heavier blanket than that and the grass blades did not stick up out of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I’m glad my eyeball on the snow amount I reported was verified. I was getting all panicky and paranoid when someone asked if I used a ruler. I thought I was being accused of overestimating or something. I mean we all sort of know what an inch is like because it happens a lot. But this was just a significantly heavier blanket than that and the grass blades did not stick up out of it.

Those numbers are 4 years ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Impressed it went through ALB area and SW where the 'rents still live in the winter.  The hometown had 3.0" just SW of the city.  That's a pretty decent band of snow going from central to eastern NY and through parts of SW Mass, N CT, RI and Islands.

Nice streak there on a line from upstate NY to the Islands.

Dec_24_ALB.jpg.9c155d8ae68def602b80b2c2fd4a1a4d.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was that the one that most had like 1”?

Warnings were up for MA and HFD county, advisories for the rest. Ill make a post about it tomorrow but it under performed a bit. BOX thought it was going to overperform, but it didn't end up that way but still a plowable snow on Christmas day. I believe you ended up with 3-4. Ill attach some images here real quick.

 

12.26.17_snow_totals.jpg

DR33X_GXUAA_br4.jpg

DR34ZWpX0AAz7st.jpg

RAD_MOS_REG_NE_L2WINTER.gif

RAD_MOS_STATE_NJ_L2WINTER_ANI.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah.. on my 3rd since getting home from New Milf 

It snowed from early AM to around Noon per recollection.  But the mid morning meat was epic!  
 

I had a flight out of Logan late day and managed to get all the shoveling done.  Muthufukka bills me for snow removal that day…lol. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It snowed from early AM to around Noon per recollection.  But the mid morning meat was epic!  
 

I had a flight out of Logan late day and managed to get all the shoveling done.  Muthufukka bills me for snow removal that day…lol. 

It got frigid too. That was the start of a real cold period that led to the big snowstorm (bomb cyclone) in early January. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-uv200_stream-1640347200-1640995200-1641643200-10-1.thumb.gif.863997f66de8a4eb938d6abb4a536dae.gif

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-asia-mslp_anom-1640347200-1640606400-1641124800-10.thumb.gif.b54a5ded493169ad178cd5b320b10f2a.gif

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1640347200-1640995200-1641729600-10-1.thumb.gif.8cfe4affd148e490a0f3074f89097e76.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1640347200-1640995200-1641643200-10-1.thumb.gif.2af3fb521148d1f43a72632ea6420bda.gif

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

I wonder if there's ever been a teleconnection calculated using the circulation mode over Japan ...around the world?  That'd be cool, heh.  

There's are little known rule of thumbs out there.  Like, tornadoes in Michigan tend to offend New England 24 hrs later.  Or troughs over eastern N/A tend to correlate with troughs of western Europe.   I can imagine these types of concurrency are more related to geometry/R-wave distribution.  And if so, wonder how far that extends.  There's obviously an Indian Ocean telecon with the -NAO... so -

good post though.  You should chat with Weatherwiz - another Met that bops around the forum.  He was all over the Asian feed and needing that to change the relay into the Pacific. I think he even said words to the affect ( or is 'e'ffect) of, ' ...won't see a real change until that happens'.

Maybe this is it?  I happened to agree with him.   Part of the reason for the MJO stall in 7 is that the wave is having mechanical trouble propagating out of the Marine district, ...I suspect the reason for that stall may very well be because given the west Pacific torque model as it is dispersing off eastern Asia, it may be suppressing/ destructive wave interference.  CPC's been blaming it on the La Nina footprint of the hemisphere; they may be entirely right.  But I have my doubts whether that part of it is the 'cause' vs more coincidence. The last several ENSO events have performed poorly in coupling to the hemisphere base-line circulation, so suddenly this one is?  Okay.   Personally, ...I discussed that apparent breakdown over the last years, and that I thought this year would pass the hemisphere in and out of La Nina; ha, if I'm going to be right about that, now might be a good time for your +EAMT to get real.  

Maybe the MJO then starts propagating into 8 and beyond, if/when that happens.. .There are more individual members on the RMM that appear to curl.. .and I also noticed the operational GFS and Euro version began yesterday, rolling SPV saws through lower Canada - yeah...something could be brewing along the lines of pattern/wave# change.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

 

 

You probably saved your own life by giving that particular vice up. I’m not a doctor but Those “oddities” were probably caused by alcoholic hepatitis of the liver. And you don’t have to be an alcoholic to get that. You just have to drink a lot.
 

I once drank very heavily for a year, and had trouble stopping. In the end I treat my mental health with medications and that reduced my need and cravings for things that endanger my health so I am doing a lot better today.

Heh. Thanks but fuller disclosure … I didn’t have liver issues. I was getting physicals thru that era and blood work never reflected that.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...