December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Wouldn’t surprise me if icing is a little worse than forecasted tomorrow with temps running lower than predicted today. Seems that the atmosphere is a bit colder than was modeled…

Watch the meso models tonight to see if they speed up the trend of ushering in the surface warmth.  I have a feeling that’s what’s going to happen.

[wx2fish]

HRRR is pretty nasty tomorrow, even close to the coast near the onset. 495 corridor may struggle to hit 32 for most of the day. 

[dryslot]

You guys can have the ice, Been there, Done that a few days back.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

HRRR is pretty nasty tomorrow, even close to the coast near the onset. 495 corridor may struggle to hit 32 for most of the day. 

He’s coming 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Icestorm enroute . Pope!

[Johnno]

2.5” here currently sitting at 27 degrees, nice over-performer here

[HIPPYVALLEY]

14 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

HRRR is pretty nasty tomorrow, even close to the coast near the onset. 495 corridor may struggle to hit 32 for most of the day. 

That’s not what I wanted to hear, hoping we were going to trend warmer not colder.

[moneypitmike]

32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You guys can have the ice, Been there, Done that a few days back.

I hadn't realized there was such a sharp cut-off on the snow amounts up there last week.  PWM was over 7" and Pit2 wound up with only about 2", that's less than 40 miles up the coast.

[WxWatcher007]

28.7/24

Great wintry day.

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

HRRR is pretty nasty tomorrow, even close to the coast near the onset. 495 corridor may struggle to hit 32 for most of the day. 

Yeah that could be nasty for quite a while. Esp interior hills in ORH county into S NH. Flow is pretty light so prob many areas will latently warm to like 32.5F by mid afternoon but if even a weak barrier jet gets going then that could end up as 30F right into evening. The mesolow threat is kind of high so something to watch. 

[Thunderblizzard]

Ended up with 1.2” in Southington. Appears to be almost entirely intact with the temp sitting at 28 and clouds — looks like it’ll be a White Christmas here.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that could be nasty for quite a while. Esp interior hills in ORH county into S NH. Flow is pretty light so prob many areas will latently warm to like 32.5F by mid afternoon but if even a weak barrier jet gets going then that could end up as 30F right into evening. The mesolow threat is kind of high so something to watch. 

This has been my coldest day of the season by far. I’m expecting just enough here to make tomorrow morning a mess. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Ended up with 1.2” in Southington. Appears to be almost entirely intact with the temp sitting at 28 and clouds — looks like it’ll be a White Christmas here.

Lol.....my coating is entirely intact including paved surfaces.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Ended up with 1.2” in Southington. Appears to be almost entirely intact with the temp sitting at 28 and clouds — looks like it’ll be a White Christmas here.

 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Lol.....my coating is entirely intact including paved surfaces.

Even the coldest guidance i think had a high around 28ish at ORH. That ended up being the high near BOS and the ORH Asos has been running warm too  

 

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I hadn't realized there was such a sharp cut-off on the snow amounts up there last week.  PWM was over 7" and Pit2 wound up with only about 2", that's less than 40 miles up the coast.

The qpf field on radar was showery, So totals were all over the place, Not your typical overrunning event.

[moneypitmike]

NAM has all of SNE except Lunenburg above freezing by 10:00am.  Meanwhile Jeff doesn't break freezing until Sunday afternoon

[Damage In Tolland]

Still only 24.6 . May not ever go above tomorrow 

[dendrite]

NAM is mostly snow here now. We’ve consistently been on the line of all models so I’m expecting the entire kitchen sink at times.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

NAM has all of SNE except Lunenburg above freezing by 10:00am.  Meanwhile Jeff doesn't break freezing until Sunday afternoon

Toss.  You’ll certainly be sub freezing 

[CoastalWx]

Printed Ray’s December forecast and got this going good.

 

[dendrite]

HRRR starts as snow for Ray.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM is mostly snow here now. We’ve consistently been on the line of all models so I’m expecting the entire kitchen sink at times.

Going to get the whole shebang in this one.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Printed Ray’s December forecast and got this going good.

 

He might need this instead:

[LSC97wxnut]

Was outside much of the afternoon with daughter and her cousins running around a playground. 

Weenie flakes just about the entire time and cold. The kids didn't seem to mind while they were playing. 

Very happy about having hot chocolate when we got inside though. 

[brooklynwx99]

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Printed Ray’s December forecast and got this going good.

 

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Printed Ray’s December forecast and got this going good.

 

Omg 

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

Thanks for the info 

[CoastalWx]

I’m just kidding with Ray. His outlooks honestly top what the pros have. I’m just having some fun. 

[DavisStraight]

Ray said white Christmas, looks like I'll have one and a lot of us will.