Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: AEMATT folks left in Christmas despair. CT will get a solid covering. It was just 4 weeks ago that we were talking about a great December to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Euro has a nice little weenie band for the pike region late tonight/early tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A know it all millennial. You hate that kid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a nice little weenie band for the pike region late tonight/early tomorrow. A little 700 fronto it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: There are places out west that has had more snow in the last hour than places in SNE will have in the next 2-3 weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Euro not buying what the goofus is selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: The west looks like Atlanta being ahead 28-3.....the question is can the east stage a big 2nd half comeback?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro not buying what the goofus is selling. Not at all lol. Oye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro not buying what the goofus is selling. I wonder how many times this phrase has been muttered over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A know it all millennial. I don't doubt it ..heh.. But is he Met or climate or ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Well if we get to mid January still in deep ratter territory I start having futility weenie dreams. For BOS, under 9.0 for the season (1936-37) would do it. Snow or no I’m look forward to my 10 days in warmth coming in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 That’s pretty icy over the interior Xmas morning…even pretty close to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a nice little weenie band for the pike region late tonight/early tomorrow. I bet this ends up as an inch or a bit more for a small stripe of an area, and most everyone else is left with flakes/coating or less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 So it probably won't happen - this 26th ordeal ? Or maybe some muted vestige in some arguable sense of it will, but not like the GFS ... We've been wise not to buy. However, there is the fact that other guidance had something similar enough carried along in the their 00z synoptic evolution, that something is/was there in the physic more so than the GFS merely fabricating - which the latter doesn't really happen... but for brevity. What this comes down to as a deterministic critique is either going to be: - why does/did the GFS do this or -why is it that the GFS was capable of picking up on this where the others were so vacant/ or at best low consistency My guess is we will be looking at this along the first of these two questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I bet this ends up as an inch or a bit more for a small stripe of an area, and most everyone else is left with flakes/coating or less Definitely possible. I wouldn’t be 100% shocked if a few 2”+ lollis happened in a narrow band even while some areas get almost nothing. Ratios will prob be good inside that band so if someone get a tenth or a little more of LE that could easily be 2”+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 The air is quite dry, even down here....Dewpoint here is 3⁰ right now, wonder how much of tonight's event actually ends up making it to the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 The 12z/00z drop off from 6z/18z seen again on Euro for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Ho Ho Ho 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Ho Ho Ho Hey, You could probably get a lap dance, Looked like she could handle anything from the north pole. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't doubt it ..heh.. But is he Met or climate or ? Younger met I think. It's fine, not to belabor...just letting off a little steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Hey, You could probably get a lap dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Hey, You could probably get a lap dance. Lol… he’s missing the best party! Ant…. NYPD had there party last week, it was wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeeeah, but the 'I told you so' isn't entirely fair to the individual whose lived the vicissitudes of climate over the last 20 years of both anecdotal, but most importantly empirically measured climate change. ( Bolded that statement to the straw-man; I'm not making that up...it's not an impression. It's fact) And part of that total/notable climate change manifold has been that the autumns have become increasingly more prone to snow events, earlier than the previous 150 years of perceived climate stability draws those pictures in the elderly mind about what should and should not be according to tradition. Whenever I hear someone with wisdom that is based upon the pre-2000 climate era, I have a sticking point about their perspective as defaulting to a bias: it is one becoming somewhat outmoded because the climate is repainting the canvas of expectation. I am mid aged, perhaps a little older chronologically... but when factoring in modernity and medicine, probably on point - that is, excluding the very real possibility that any one in the ambrosia of slow moving apocalypses, the "innovation" and brilliance our species is causing, ... starts taking people earlier... Anyway, I do remember the late 1970s through the 1990s. That was a significantly different experience compared to the 2000+ decades. In that former span of years, I remember snow in minoring occurrences ...maybe 3 times, prior to Halloweens. A few more times in November and December, but by and large, the vaster majority of years romance with weather was about pining for weeks...and weeks, and weeks over weeks, with no leaves on the trees over chartreuse -browned earth. It was like living reel version of the depressing song, "Life In Mono" - you just felt abandoned by the one and only thing you really cared about as a weather enthusiast at that time of the year. That all changed around 2000. We began ( in spring's too, btw - ) observing snow in October, and increased frequency of significant winter storms, too. Not just packing pellets dancing around car tops under a virga exploded CAA cumulous, either. Even more so in Novembers and Decembers, with far greater frequency. Interestingly ...this has not apparently parlayed very well to immediately ensuing winters but that's a whole 'nother aspect. I guess I remember all too well roughing houses in the late 80s in tee shirts after Christmas hoping for even a dusting of snow, or even a day around 32 degrees instead of flirting with 60. Then came some awesome years in the 90s when even then anything but flurries before the holiday was gravy. I guess these more recent years the early snow just doesn't stick in my memory except the "October Snowstorm" Something by the way as an electrician I hope to NEVER experience again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I bet this ends up as an inch or a bit more for a small stripe of an area, and most everyone else is left with flakes/coating or less My mind is made up that will be the case....odds are it won't be here, so I couldn't care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lol… he’s missing the best party! Ant…. NYPD had there party last week, it was wild I saw the vid, I don't think that was her first rodeo ha ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 hours ago, DEEPSTUFF said: Early 80's worse than later. Playing outside on Christmas in T-shirts was ugly. Later 80's had some big winters. Big snowbanks and poor site lines caused me to total my first car. I think 88? '88 was the first decent winter we had in northwest CT since like 1983. Then it was back to pretty much suck til '92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I saw the vid, I don't think that was her first rodeo ha ha. Yeah she’s working vice undercover...lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Actually ... doing a model comparison, interval to interval, between GFS and GGEM. The differences really appear to be in the complex stream mechanical handling over the Rockies ~ 48 hours, then notably so over the ~ Chicago longitudes/latitudes. That is where the two begin divergence with surface implications. The GFS has the Xmas S/W/ .. vestige, in the process of shearing out over the eastern Ohio Valley, while it has a flat wave with an impressive wind max over the eastern Plains/Iowa region. The GFS appears to phase this latter S/W into the remnants of the lead; altho remnant as it is, it is enough to positive interfere along a narrow corridor, and we end up with a more impressive/evolved total cyclonic response over and leaving NE. It would likely snow meaningfully for 4 hours of something from RUT-Brian ...maybe down to MHT, NH and PWM. It's not an altogether climate friendly total evolution - it would be anomaly. But I find it if nothing else, interesting that if one hovers their mouse-pointer, over "Prev. Run" ( c/o Tropical Tidbits) and clicks it 10 times beginning at this 12z's 72 hour, the GFS has ended up on that cyclonic look for 10 consecutive cycles. You know ...we've often noted the 101, 'continuity' - can't argue that in this case. It just makes it that much more embarrassing when a model is contiguously a piece of shit - if it comes to that.... The GGEM on the other hand...lets the lead S/W finish deterioration/absorption into the confluence deformation of the -NAO exertion/negative interference. The latter mid west comes in... and does still have enough identity in the total wave-space to at least give cyclonic response ... maybe 1/3 the profile. A lighter event. By virtue of weaker jet fields ( weaker erosion/WAA) it actually allows light mix down to Rt 2... K, adding the Euro to this discussion now too ... It looks even more separated than the GGEM... which really puts it in the diametric camp comparing the GFS. Interesting at this range to be that variant. But one aspect about the Euro - as an aside - the follo-up S/W is actually potent in this run. So much so that as it rounds the semi-permanent TV pig and dives SE, it's bending the surface pressure pattern... Not sure what the IVT/Norlun aspects could materialize, but I wouldn't put that beyond the realm of possibilities, either. There's just a tone of chaos potential with these closely spaced S/W spraying over/through the Rockies over the next 48 hours. I mean, the Euro could be more right in essence, but then necessarily start painting more IVT QPF in future guidance anyway. ------ The short take away here is... the GFS phases nuances more, and that constructively leads to more cyclone response. The GGEM a little less...the Euro even less. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Kudos to you for analyzing those subtle nuances when the choices in outcome are rain, or P. Cloudy....I just can't bring myself to do it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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