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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

See, I guess I don't feel this way.  If you look at seasonal snowfall by month.  SSNE(south of the pike and outside hilly hick towns), average snowfall for December is measly, my guess is less than <5".  That can be made up in one night.  That's why sweating December snows around here is a pointless endeavor.  Real snow threats don't start in earnest until after Christmas.

I'm not saying that it can't be made up...what I mean by a loss is that it wasn't fulfilling for winter enthusiasts.

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hes trolling everyone for forecasting off the euro.

Euro has sucked since the upgrade a few years ago. Remember when it use to nail storms a few days out ?

meh define "suck" and what you're measuring. 

The biggest issue is not models themselves but how they're being interpreted, especially in the medium-to-long range. If someone is just rip-and-reading an H5 height anomaly graphic and taking it as face value they're doing themselves an injustice. And that's the issue with these graphics and how they just get tossed around and interpreted...just face value instead of doing an assessment. And assessment being just ike what Scott did above...understand how a slight fluctuation and shifts of core height anomalies can mean significant alterations to the pattern as a whole. 

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1 minute ago, DEEPSTUFF said:

Early 80's worse than later. Playing outside on Christmas in T-shirts was ugly.  Later 80's had some big winters. Big snowbanks and poor site lines caused me to total my first car. I think 88?

87-88 was good. 88-89 through 91-921 we’re about as bad as it gets…Nov/Dec 89 maybe the exception. 

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Just now, DEEPSTUFF said:

Early 80's worse than later. Playing outside on Christmas in T-shirts was ugly.  Later 80's had some big winters. Big snowbanks and poor site lines caused me to total my first car. I think 88?

I think the first half of the 80s were better....the late 80s early 90's was the absolute pits. The only good winter in the second half of that decade was 1986-1987.

81-82 was very good, and 82-83 and 83-84 were salvageable.

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Gonna have to watch for ZR Xmas day over the interior. NAM and 3k are both still showing this possibility. Doesn’t look like a lot of precip or anything but with people visiting family it could cause some nasty back road conditions…only takes a little. 

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's the defacto reaction he gets from many on here. And I agree, the post was spot on.

I feel there aren't enough objective posters here and having him post a healthy dose of that is good.

It is, and posts like that are great....but there isn't any doubt some of his posts are just meant to break balls. lol

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS show something more ideal. I honestly have no confidence as to what may happen. 

I can't remember a period in which my confidence in guidance was lower. The only thing that I can say with confidence is that this isn't going to be one of those super PV seasons, January thaw not withstanding.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Hopefully Christmas keep pushing N.  Don't want to have to drive in ice.

You’re prob fine in SE MA….maybe really early morning there could be a few icy spots in interior SE MA.
 

 But most of the ice looks more deeper interior and by Xmas evening it’s mostly ORH county and over to Essex county actually. 

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