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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

It's not about you or me being right....I learned a long time ago that I have no control over the weather so I do not get angry/upset/melt when the weather doesn't deliver weather that I enjoy. 

Well, when you spend a month writing, you hope to not just flush it down the toilet when its all wrong lol

As far as being upset, I think we are all angered by that which we can not control at one time or another....doesn't mean that I don't understand that I can't control it. Believe me, December is proof of the fact that I don't control it.

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Here's an example of the juiced up off hour runs on the EC for the last 4 cycles. The on-hour 12Z/00Z cycles look nearly identical and the 18Z/6Z counterparts look similar as well. Don't ask me why this is happening, it's also just a snapshot of one days worth of runs, so at the same time doesn't "prove" the 6Z/18Z are more or less juiced than the on-hour runs. It's just something I've noticed as well as many users on here. Anecdotal more than anything, but it is interesting to see it visualized. A few years ago we didn't even have the 6Z/18Z ECMWF to look at and maybe that would have been for the better?

1186366894_ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-total_snow_10to1-0394000(1).thumb.png.ea756e415cd5c27cd8ab82f65e75bda2.png2139481167_ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-total_snow_10to1-0394000(3).thumb.png.388fe07a1355a262c8803db8df005df4.png

ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-total_snow_10to1-0394000.thumb.png.3af789d7cf7189009c14d20b0c90ff96.png96953900_ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-total_snow_10to1-0394000(2).thumb.png.239272e32a91b6cc8e8244ff677c25b9.png

 

 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December was a complete loss form SNE points southward...that isn't really debatable. Again, its frustrating because the blocking materialized, but unfortunately, so did a record breaking RNA at the same, precise time.

See, I guess I don't feel this way.  If you look at seasonal snowfall by month.  SSNE(south of the pike and outside hilly hick towns), average snowfall for December is measly, my guess is less than <5".  That can be made up in one night.  That's why sweating December snows around here is a pointless endeavor.  Real snow threats don't start in earnest until after Christmas.

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IDK what's more impressive...the degree of cold in the PAC NW next week or the degree of warmth in the mid-section of the country. May have to go with the later b/c there are strong signals 60's dews could push well into the Ohio Valley with 70's dews maybe into the Gulf Coast? I don't think there's ever been a December high risk before but I bet we could head in that direction later next week. 

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3 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

I was going to say that you sound very young...and then saw your Bday. If you're nearly as old as I am...and have lived in this area most of your life you SHOULD know that the area usually doesn't have meaningful snow 'til after Christmas. Especially West Hartford. Even where I'm from in Granby this is true, and we always had a fair deal more than the Hartford area!  God, I feel like I've said this a million times already...

Yeeeah, but the 'I told you so' isn't entirely fair to the individual whose lived the vicissitudes of climate over the last 20 years of both anecdotal, but most importantly empirically measured climate change. 

( Bolded that statement to the straw-man; I'm not making that up...it's not an impression. It's fact)

And part of that total/notable climate change manifold has been that the autumns have become increasingly more prone to snow events, earlier than the previous 150 years of perceived climate stability draws those pictures in the elderly mind about what should and should not be according to tradition.  Whenever I hear someone with wisdom that is based upon the pre-2000 climate era, I have a sticking point about their perspective as defaulting to a bias: it is one becoming somewhat outmoded because the climate is repainting the canvas of expectation.  

I am mid aged, perhaps a little older chronologically... but when factoring in modernity and medicine, probably on point - that is, excluding the very real possibility that any one in the ambrosia of slow moving apocalypses, the "innovation" and brilliance our species is causing, ... starts taking people earlier...  Anyway, I do remember the late 1970s through the 1990s.  

That was a significantly different experience compared to the 2000+ decades.   In that former span of years, I remember snow in minoring occurrences ...maybe 3 times, prior to Halloweens.   A few more times in November and December, but by and large, the vaster majority of years romance with weather was about pining for weeks...and weeks, and weeks over weeks, with no leaves on the trees over chartreuse -browned earth. It was like living reel version of the depressing song, "Life In Mono" - you just felt abandoned by the one and only thing you really cared about as a weather enthusiast at that time of the year. 

That all changed around 2000.  We began ( in spring's too, btw - ) observing snow in October, and increased frequency of significant winter storms, too. Not just packing pellets dancing around car tops under a virga exploded CAA cumulous, either.  Even more so in Novembers and Decembers, with far greater frequency.   Interestingly ...this has not apparently parlayed very well to immediately ensuing winters but that's a whole 'nother aspect.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

As much as everybody says the off hour runs aren’t any different, that isn’t true in reality at all. They’re always either amped up, or they go the opposite way, compared to 0z and 12z more often than not. 

All a matter of perspective.  One might say the 0z and 12z are either amped up or go the opposite way of the off-hour runs.  :)

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