Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Earth likes to balance everything. It does ... no this is an excellent point. ( EDIT: oh ..ha. I read "Earth" as "Euro" ... haha sorry. But hey - both balance ) The Euro's 4-d variable system is all ooh and ahh sounding and all, but what it ultimately achieves is 'smoothing' - or attempting to do so .. It tries to mute unwanted 'spontaneous emergence' along the way of processing. They are natural bi-products of complex systems operating in time ..etc..etc.. But, they then propagating onward to seriously f-up a total outlook when they do - or can. But, the only problem with that is,... sometimes the emergence are real. Chaos can't be ultimately, entirely de-cluttered; noise is a real aspect of complex systems, too - to wit, the atmosphere is definitely representative. lol. I suspect that's why crossing D5 to D7 in that model routinely takes trough and ridges and ends up adding to their anomaly - in either direction, ...by some percentage. It's basically canceling out the features that are negatively interfering, then the feature in question gets a surge for 'virtual god' ( if you will ...) washing the processing by shedding those mitigations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Tblizz's Icon went from giving him snow to snow--->rain. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tblizz's Icon went from giving him snow to snow--->rain. Enjoy. Anthony have your phone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tblizz's Icon went from giving him snow to snow--->rain. Enjoy. And I’m the Debbie lol. At least it still has the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: And I’m the Debbie lol. At least it still has the system LOL, no Debbie...just want to illicit a depressing post from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anthony have your phone? Probably. He’s given away his degree so many times, the phone is all he has left 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anthony have your phone? We're in the cruiser together waiting on the Navgem. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 I just logged in to see 80 posts since my last check.....I was thinking 'oh shit--what are the early models showing'? Disappointing to see they were all about looking back at ORH snowfalls and the death of Alberta Clippers. It's tough when the pattern thread is looking at days of yore rather than the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Well transient blocking seems to pop up a lot. Flow can be fast until its not. Even for non snowstorms we have had frequent slow movers and omega blocks as well. I don't think there is enough empirical data to support fast flow theory. This. Its all cyclical. The clippers will be back at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I just logged in to see 80 posts since my last check.....I was thinking 'oh shit--what are the early models showing'? Disappointing to see they were all about looking back at ORH snowfalls and the death of Alberta Clippers. It's tough when the pattern thread is looking at days of yore rather than the future. Ya me too…I was like oh wow we got something brewing. But nothing but banter here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Ya me too…I was like oh wow we got something brewing. But nothing but banter here this morning. Just having fun, probably should get back on track. It's just that nothing exciting is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We're in the cruiser together waiting on the Navgem. If you don’t produce a snowstorm for BKN soon, you’ll be in the cruiser alright…but in the back seat handcuffed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 You can't even get back to back runs where you get the same look @H5, Good luck figuring out who gets snow if anyone this far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Gfs doesn’t look great for winter enthusiasts. Nada this weekend and mainly wet Monday Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have seen enough to know that they aren't going to be a doormat anytime soon. SB caliber...fair question. Last time I recall so many Pats off-season FA signings was after going 5-11 in 2000, and we know what happened after that. Of course, back then BB was raiding the bargain bin; this time it's the luxury aisle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, dryslot said: You can't even get back to back runs where you get the same look @H5, Good luck figuring out who gets snow if anyone this far out. Modeling has been abysmal the last couple seasons(last year and this early season so far), everything changes at H5 each run, and not just little things, but whole scale changes it seems on each run. Modeling Too sensitive now or what? It jumps all over the place like a hyper chiwawa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 Looks like a made the right call resisting temptation to begin model subscriptions prior to 12/1. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Icon is really the only thing showing a weekend event now… that’s pretty much gone at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like a made the right call resisting temptation to begin model subscriptions prior to 12/1. What do you use and how much do you pay/mo? I saw Pivotal is adding 3hrly euro and the 6/18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: What do you use and how much do you pay/mo? I saw Pivotal is adding 3hrly euro and the 6/18z runs. I use F5 weather for euro narcan maps and mostly wxbell for evrything else. I forget rates...will tell you tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 I have stormvista 20 dollars per month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have stormvista 20 dollars per month hi-res rainers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Pivotal is only $10/mo. Think I'd rather give my $$ to the Norman grad students (I think brettjrob from here was part of that team) than JoeB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Pivotal is only $10/mo. Think I'd rather give my $$ to the Norman grad students (I think brettjrob from here was part of that team) than JoeB. I have 3 i use, Pivotal is one of them, Just took them up on there offer for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 On the GEFS you can see the eastern NPAC ridge sharpens up and probably aids in the s/w digging next week, causing a mixed bag/rain. But after that, that is quite the mass of cold air. Sometimes those cutters shake things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pivotal is only $10/mo. Think I'd rather give my $$ to the Norman grad students (I think brettjrob from here was part of that team) than JoeB. Is Pivotal run by the Norman folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Is Pivotal run by the Normal folks? No only abnormal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pivotal is only $10/mo. Think I'd rather give my $$ to the Norman grad students (I think brettjrob from here was part of that team) than JoeB. better than donating to Joe Bustardi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: On the GEFS you can see the eastern NPAC ridge sharpens up and probably aids in the s/w digging next week, causing a mixed bag/rain. But after that, that is quite the mass of cold air. Sometimes those cutters shake things up a bit. Dec 8th emerges as a new threat this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No only abnormal We edit. As I said, not much sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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