December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m planning and counting on 1-2” tomorrow night . And have a feeling there’s st a minimum flakes in the air Xmas Day at some point 

[Typhoon Tip]

Lol    ... the ultimate 'kick the pattern down the road'  - talk about next year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Well that's hopeful.  I like 76-77....bone dry and bitter cold.  Let's start a thread.

I wasn't dry for all of NE. I had near 100".

[weathafella]

Incidentally as long as we’re talking other seasons 77-78 was stormy in the west..LA had something like 32 inches of rain (normal annual is 14).  I also recall some cold spells.   RNA or the never ending Pineapple Express?

[weatherwiz]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

More than less  

I know why it is over-valued.   The NAO was a study done back in the 1960s or something...but was sort of not popularized or really very well lay-known ... until the 1990s, when it became more commonplace knowledge as the Internet provided fuller disclosure of back office discussion content so forth... Blah blah, but it was a perfect storm for popularity... because it was new and 'sounded' awesome.  And we had just had a couple of historic winters in the Boston area... upper M/A, with 1994 and 1996 ...etc, and it was attributed.  Heh.  - the only problem was, the interpretation was overly marketed as the winter invasion for eastern N/A and western Europe.  

It's true in some sense... but for different reasons.  It effects the winter circulation mode, but with different impact.   The -NAO limb biases matter too, but by and large, -NAO is a storm look for Brittain, but more of a compression flow look for Chicago to Boston and the EC.

It's a matter of scale and degree of doing so.  More compression is not good.  Less compression depends on what the Pacific loading pattern is actually doing. That was 1994 and 1996.  So right off the bat we are having to find narrower windows where it is really actually "good" for winter enthusiasts...  But people keep referring back to the specter of the 1990s... even I do it sometimes.

Heather Archembault's Master's thesis covers that changing NAO mode as being LESS, not more, correlated to storminess over eastern N/A compared to the mode PNA change.  Her paper and it's utility have gotten old at this pint ... jeez by some 25 or 30 years actually ( wow - ). So it's probably been augmented ...who knows.  But having less correlation to the primary "storm loading pattern," then, having it be stuck in negative, while we have a -PNA rolling up a ridge axis centered on Dayton Ohio ... that is a destructive wave interference pattern at large scales.   And no -NAO will help in that regime if it is hugely negative - it is bad bad bad...

It seems the NAO, either forecasting failure or, having it emerge and NOT mean dividends to winter enthusiasm ...has been a recurrent theme with very high recurrent abuse, yet.... posters can't wait to post the telecon. 

So to answer your question... it's no saving grace, no.  Not even close.  What it can be used for is an indicator to modulate one way or the other ( 'correction vectoring' ) systems. 

Part of the other problem is that the -NAO actually comes from the Pacific Rossby wave signal, as it terminates across the Americas.  It's called a non-linear wave function.  You have A, B, C, D, .... and down stream G grows or falls because of the relationship between B and C ...  Linear wave forcing is when A causes B in this sense.   But that and the rest of this write is big popsicle headache at this point, no doubt

Great post.

I think the NAO is certainly over-valued and too much emphasis gets placed on it and you can use the same reasoning and rational behind why ENSO sometimes get too much emphasis and and is over-valued. When heavy research began, there wasn't a huge data set to work with and alot of these now existing indices and teleconnections either haven't been published yet or very little was known about them to really incorporate into research. 

There's alot of work (older) which focuses on one-to-one comparisons...

1) ENSO vs. precipitation (rainfall, snowfall) and temperature

2) NAO vs. precipitation and temperature

Hell...we've seen alot of numbers ran for the Northeast...for each climo station which shows snowfall totals during +NAO vs -NAO. At the end of the day does that really provide accurate assessment or information? I would wager not and this is because there are just way too many influences that need to be taken into account. 

There has been lots of research (more recent) too which continues to strongly indicate North America storminess is more of a product of PNA/Pacific mode vs. the NAO...and if you really think about it...that makes a ton of sense, The way I view it is the Pacific dictates the pattern, however, the Atlantic (or Arctic) can manipulate it. 

[EasternLI]

This particular stagnant pattern we're seeing does have the actual capability to turn the PV into a punching bag.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Incidentally as long as we’re talking other seasons 77-78 was stormy in the west..LA had something like 32 inches of rain (normal annual is 14).  I also recall some cold spells.   RNA or the never ending Pineapple Express?

 

[weathafella]

And so we don’t broad brush good or bad...here’s the map as the SNE signature blizzard of the 20th century was unfolding....

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM came crashing back to earth at 18z for New Year’s Eve. Looks much more tame compared to 12z

[dryslot]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM came crashing back to earth at 18z for New Year’s Eve. Looks much more tame compared to 12z

That would be quite difficult for the nam seeing it only goes out to 84 hrs...............

[weathafella]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM came crashing back to earth at 18z for New Year’s Eve. Looks much more tame compared to 12z

Lol....closing the shades for a week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And so we don’t broad brush good or bad...here’s the map as the SNE signature blizzard of the 20th century was unfolding....

Lucky the N stream was able to capture the way it did because the PNA ridge is a bit east of ideal.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That would be quite difficult for the nam seeing it only goes out to 84 hrs...............

 

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol....closing the shades for a week.

You know what I meant . You can save that though, I’m sure it’ll be just as useful then.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lucky the N stream was able to capture the way it did because the PNA ridge is a bit east of ideal.

And notice the deep trof over AK aka “the pig”

[40/70 Benchmark]

The mid atlantic forum is already 9+ pages deep into the January thread.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

You know what I meant . You can save that though, I’m sure it’ll be just as useful then.

It’s a regionwide 1-2” lolli 3” deal . Most towns get 1-1.5” It’s a win . Move on and cherish what is being given in a very unfavorable pattern 

[tavwtby]

talking about 76-77&77-78, in these parts, data from the closest station, we had 90 and 130" respectively, so not so bone dry and cold, and alot of 77-78 came in the span of three weeks iirc, but we just had a fairly dry winter, can't recall the temperature anomalies I'm working on those historical stats, but 18-19 and 19-20 were very low snow totals, and 94-95 was well below average and frigid iirc again, was it 93-94 or 94-95 we had that long cold blast? also remember a pretty epic sleet storm during one of them winters

[Damage In Tolland]

This thing tomorrow night reminds me of one on the nite before Tgiving maybe 9-10 years ago. A cold system with fluff that dropped a couple inches and that afternoon of Tgiving warmed well into the 30’s. Maybe even over 10 years ago. It started with temps in the upper teens and lower 20’s. I bet Will’s steel trap memory can recollect the year 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This thing tomorrow night reminds me of one on the nite before Tgiving maybe 9-10 years ago. A cold system with fluff that dropped a couple inches and that afternoon of Tgiving warmed well into the 30’s. Maybe even over 10 years ago. It started with temps in the upper teens and lower 20’s. I bet Will’s steel trap memory can recollect the year 

You might be thinking of 2005...that one happened pre-dawn Tday and ended early/mid morning.

[ORH_wxman]

That system was a lot different BTW...it was really strong WAA push.

This one is really a weak clipper.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

After 1/2" snow and 4 hours of ZR, switched back to snow about 1:45.

Snow stopped about 3:30, with 0.5" from 0.07" LE.  The first half inch included some IP and had 0.10" LE.  I'll learn how much ZR came down when I melt out the whole mess.  Probably pounded Saturday's powder to leave the depth unchanged but more solid.  Wind has turned to N and a bit of nice color from the sunset.  Things should be rock hard by morning.
Genny kicked on at 3:55 - nowhere near enough accretion for much damage to the trees, though it only takes one weakling.

[IowaStorm05]

Climate change is thought to be implicated in more extreme and erratic patterns of late. At this time it’s about western severity of winter today. In 2018-2019 it was the Midwest that was buried in snow and -21 degrees F even in southern IA.

2019-2020 was super mild east coast, but earlier in the decade were some winters where snow totals were record breaking.

2021 saw Texas deep freeze.

They say at the point we are at it’s about extreme patterns both warm and cold, with a less stable arctic and wrinkly jet stream, and there are other problems such as long term drought out west too. 
 

what is going on out west is said to be likely the exception not the norm…. By a long shot…. But with an erratic jet stream and arctic I’m not convinced we know for sure what will happen beyond just the overall average of earth warming. Long term it will be warmer, and we might see a winter or two without measurable snow on the southeast coast of SNE, but there will be plenty of winters where snow is very very deep too especially nowadays before warming advances more.

I am profoundly jealous of the PNW and Nevada right now, but I’m not fazed. It will get us. 
 

it will get us eventually that’s a promise 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You might be thinking of 2005...that one happened pre-dawn Tday and ended early/mid morning.

Yeah that was it 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't dry for all of NE. I had near 100".

Snowiest of our winters in Fort Kent with 186.7", though the 54" peak depth was well short of 83-84.  Dec-Feb 76-77 had snow on 82 of 90 days.

You might be thinking of 2005...that one happened pre-dawn Tday and ended early/mid morning.

Only 3.7" from that one but it lasted through most of the daylight hours.  (Also brought EF-0 and EF-1 tornados to the midcoast.)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon looks like a widespread C-1” deal… maybe 1.5” in spots 

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Climate change is thought to be implicated in more extreme and erratic patterns of late. At this time it’s about western severity of winter today. In 2018-2019 it was the Midwest that was buried in snow and -21 degrees F even in southern IA.

2019-2020 was super mild east coast, but earlier in the decade were some winters where snow totals were record breaking.

2021 saw Texas deep freeze.

They say at the point we are at it’s about extreme patterns both warm and cold, with a less stable arctic and wrinkly jet stream, and there are other problems such as long term drought out west too. 
 

what is going on out west is said to be likely the exception not the norm…. By a long shot…. But with an erratic jet stream and arctic I’m not convinced we know for sure what will happen beyond just the overall average of earth warming. Long term it will be warmer, and we might see a winter or two without measurable snow on the southeast coast of SNE, but there will be plenty of winters where snow is very very deep too especially nowadays before warming advances more.

I am profoundly jealous of the PNW and Nevada right now, but I’m not fazed. It will get us. 
 

it will get us eventually that’s a promise 

You should limit these kinds of posts to the appropriate climate change sub forum.  And  while I acknowledge climate change, understand that these patterns existed 200 years ago.  Just because it changed in our lifetimes doesn’t mean it didn’t before.  I’m for doing all we can to prevent it but I also think we should be truthful about things.

[IowaStorm05]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You should limit these kinds of posts to the appropriate climate change sub forum.  And  while I acknowledge climate change, understand that these patterns existed 200 years ago.  Just because it changed in our lifetimes doesn’t mean it didn’t before.  I’m for doing all we can to prevent it but I also think we should be truthful about things.

I understand… it was just more of a situation of relevance to this bizarre pattern. Trying to make sense of it and suggest it will change soon. But I know I ramble.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A few flakes in the air out here this afternoon 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You should limit these kinds of posts to the appropriate climate change sub forum.  And  while I acknowledge climate change, understand that these patterns existed 200 years ago.  Just because it changed in our lifetimes doesn’t mean it didn’t before.  I’m for doing all we can to prevent it but I also think we should be truthful about things.

I'm not sure we've seen such an extreme Aleutian ridge before. The Pacific marine heatwaves are altering patterns so CC is relevant. 

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sure we've seen such an extreme Aleutian ridge before. The Pacific marine heatwaves are altering patterns so CC is relevant. 

We most certainly have seen this before!   100+ in the Pacific Northwest occurs many years if not most.   Climate change is relevant but remember there is a difference between weather and climate.   That said, CC is an enhancer, not a driver.
 

I’ll search for some anomalies to compare and hopefully Will has it in his files...lol.