CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 LOL Ray let it all out. That was great. I guess I’m desperate, but I’m looking forward to a cold Christmas Eve with hopefully some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We'd probably have a week of 65F and tropical downpours with parakeets arriving at bird feeders if we didn't have that monster block...that western trough is very deep. Tip is right that the block is also shredding shortwaves, but if they weren't, they'd be serving us Pina Coladas on the express tropical jet from Havana Cuba. Totally agree...zero doubt. The only way out in my mind if for either the NAO or RNA to relent a bit, which will eventually happen...just a matter of when. In the mean time, its like mother nature has us in a head lock and we are just waiting to be let go- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: You can sense by some of the tones in here, In the words of Jerry, Its coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Totally agree...zero doubt. The only way out in my mind if for either the NAO or RNA to relent a bit, which will eventually happen...just a matter of when. In the mean time, its like mother nature has us in a head lock and we are just waiting to be let go- Yeah and they will...they are both at extreme levels over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Earlier this morning, this place was flowing with optimism. I check in a few hours later and we've derailed? Shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Thread See new Tweets Conversation Eric Fisher @ericfisher Gotta be one of the most jarring day 4 differences in modeling I've seen in a while GFS: significant storm Euro: absolutely nothing at all 1:22 PM · Dec 22, 2021 from Boston, MA·Twitter for Android Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and they will...they are both at extreme levels over the next 7 days. That is going to some enormous mass flux when that does indeed happen, and there is potential for a very large event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is going to some enormous mass flux when that does indeed happen, and there is potential for a very large event. Georgie furiously typing 'severe blizzard over 38 consecutive days starting next week' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Thread See new Tweets Conversation Eric Fisher @ericfisher Gotta be one of the most jarring day 4 differences in modeling I've seen in a while GFS: significant storm Euro: absolutely nothing at all 1:22 PM · Dec 22, 2021 from Boston, MA·Twitter for Android I bet I know which one will be right. It’ll be grinder into a fine pulp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is going to some enormous mass flux when that does indeed happen, and there is potential for a very large event. Let’s hope that’s-PNA rather than the -NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: Georgie furiously typing 'severe blizzard over 38 consecutive days starting next week' Doesn't have to be snow around here.....especially if its the NAO that caves first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 I still think this big NAO block validates the idea that this is not going to be a rat season...its just some bad luck that it isn't baring fruit in terms of snowfall at this juncture, but looking back through data, I can't find any ratter seasons that were healthy la ninas and had a significant neg NAO in December. I know some will say 1989 and 2001, but they were cool neutral. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL Ray let it all out. That was great. I guess I’m desperate, but I’m looking forward to a cold Christmas Eve with hopefully some snow. Cold in the 40s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Cold in the 40s lol 30s in my area....IDK about down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You mean the illusion that its a panacea? More than less I know why it is over-valued. The NAO was a study done back in the 1960s or something...but was sort of not popularized or really very well lay-known ... until the 1990s, when it became more commonplace knowledge as the Internet provided fuller disclosure of back office discussion content so forth... Blah blah, but it was a perfect storm for popularity... because it was new and 'sounded' awesome. And we had just had a couple of historic winters in the Boston area... upper M/A, with 1994 and 1996 ...etc, and it was attributed. Heh. - the only problem was, the interpretation was overly marketed as the winter invasion for eastern N/A and western Europe. It's true in some sense... but for different reasons. It effects the winter circulation mode, but with different impact. The -NAO limb biases matter too, but by and large, -NAO is a storm look for Brittain, but more of a compression flow look for Chicago to Boston and the EC. It's a matter of scale and degree of doing so. More compression is not good. Less compression depends on what the Pacific loading pattern is actually doing. That was 1994 and 1996. So right off the bat we are having to find narrower windows where it is really actually "good" for winter enthusiasts... But people keep referring back to the specter of the 1990s... even I do it sometimes. Heather Archembault's Master's thesis covers that changing NAO mode as being LESS, not more, correlated to storminess over eastern N/A compared to the mode PNA change. Her paper and it's utility have gotten old at this pint ... jeez by some 25 or 30 years actually ( wow - ). So it's probably been augmented ...who knows. But having less correlation to the primary "storm loading pattern," then, having it be stuck in negative, while we have a -PNA rolling up a ridge axis centered on Dayton Ohio ... that is a destructive wave interference pattern at large scales. And no -NAO will help in that regime if it is hugely negative - it is bad bad bad... It seems the NAO, either forecasting failure or, having it emerge and NOT mean dividends to winter enthusiasm ...has been a recurrent theme with very high recurrent abuse, yet.... posters can't wait to post the telecon. So to answer your question... it's no saving grace, no. Not even close. What it can be used for is an indicator to modulate one way or the other ( 'correction vectoring' ) systems. Part of the other problem is that the -NAO actually comes from the Pacific Rossby wave signal, as it terminates across the Americas. It's called a non-linear wave function. You have A, B, C, D, .... and down stream G grows or falls because of the relationship between B and C ... Linear wave forcing is when A causes B in this sense. But that and the rest of this write is big popsicle headache at this point, no doubt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 30s in my area....IDK about down there. Christmas Eve looks pretty chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 30s in my area....IDK about down there. Yeah in eastern areas, it might not get above 35 or so....depending on when the skies clear out. Some guidance kept it below freezing, but even the Euro had like 33-34F at 18z over most of eastern SNE...SW CT got into the low 40s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I bet I know which one will be right. It’ll be grinder into a fine pulp GEFS laugh at the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think this big NAO block validates the idea that this is not going to be a rat season...its just some bad luck that it isn't baring fruit in terms of snowfall at this juncture, but looking back through data, I can't find any ratter seasons that were healthy la ninas and had a significant neg NAO in December. I know some will say 1989 and 2001, but they were cool neutral. In so far as the notion that "blocks can happen this year" ? sure - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: In so far as the notion that "blocks can happen this year" ? sure - Yes...in terms of snowfall, just that it won't be horrible....not saying it promises a huge season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 EPS finally beat down the SE ridge a bit by first week of Jan. Should be a little more accommodating to coastal systems/Miller Bs with that look....don't confuse it with an El Nino or anything, because the SE ridge is still there, it's just much weaker and that would allow us to redevelop a few of these systems and also lessen the shredding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 This is OT....but I am pumped over this, so just a sneak preview into my thought process heading into next year. Here are the el nino seasons following multi year cool ENSO years: 1957-1958 1963-1964 1968-1969 1972-1973 (super el nino, so huge asterisk) 1976-1977 1986-1987 2002-2003 2009-2010 2014-2015 2018-2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Pattern looks to improve in May. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS finally beat down the SE ridge a bit by first week of Jan. Should be a little more accommodating to coastal systems/Miller Bs with that look....don't confuse it with an El Nino or anything, because the SE ridge is still there, it's just much weaker and that would allow us to redevelop a few of these systems and also lessen the shredding. Yeah that's actually pretty nice looking. Weenies need a little patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 HRRR says snowflakes in the air as we drink our coffee and eat Pizzelles with it, on 12/24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR says snowflakes in the air as we drink our coffee and eat Pizzelles with it, on 12/24. Wow, They mic'd it up huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR says snowflakes in the air as we drink our coffee and eat Pizzelles with it, on 12/24. I dare say that looked pretty juicy too. Also had a cold Thursday with virtually everyone below freezing verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Frustrating to see the “good” pattern get kicked down the road and the “fair” pattern not producing yet. The rhetoric here reminds me of the first part of January 2015. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is OT....but I am pumped over this, so just a sneak preview into my thought process heading into next year. Well that's hopeful. I like 76-77....bone dry and bitter cold. Let's start a thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Well that's hopeful. I like 76-77....bone dry and bitter cold. Let's start a thread. We are due for one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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