weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 lol GFS has a 150+ knots MLJ streak develop. Anyways, nice to see Sunday is still being signaled. After that though...the northern stream just looks like crap. It's a sheared mess of garbage. Really tough to envision anything working out in that. Even southern stream is kind of garbage. Sunday may be our best hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: A week ago, I forecasted severe blizzard conditions in eastern mass due to the North Atlantic blocking in place. Today is the day I forecasted the blizzard conditions to occur, it is raining outside right now. A blizzard of raindrops... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 My unofficial/non-scientific observations for today. What a totally crappy day, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 It's become nice in southern CT. Skies have become partly sunny...just wish it was 10-20....40°F warmer out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 +FRZRN here, Getting bad out on the side roads and parking lots, Temps have not moved much, 27°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 GGEM is decent for 12/24...looks like a nice stripe of 1-2" with maybe 3" lollis. Then it mostly squashes 12/25-12/26...but tries to get 12/27 into parts of the region with a bit of snow. Then it tries to get another system in here 12/28 with ZR/IP. This train of shortwaves starting Xmas is a total mess on guidance. Chevy Chase advent calendar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowGiant611 said: My unofficial/non-scientific observations for today. What a totally crappy day, lol. Nothing says Christmas in SNE like a rainy day.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Interesting on the GYX radar you can see what’s likely the snow line around Sunday River, right? Echoes go more smooth and lower reflectivity sort of on a Bartlett to Andover line. That higher reflectivity stuff must be mixed? Then also the weird cellular almost convective looking stuff further north. looks like zr at SR judging by their webcams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is decent for 12/24...looks like a nice stripe of 1-2" with maybe 3" lollis. Then it mostly squashes 12/25-12/26...but tries to get 12/27 into parts of the region with a bit of snow. Then it tries to get another system in here 12/28 with ZR/IP. This train of shortwaves starting Xmas is a total mess on guidance. Chevy Chase advent calendar. Tough situations for any guidance. How is it reasonable to expect the models to be able to process the remaining airmass dynamics from the preceding wave until it actually leaves the area? Can we also see a "robber" wave here that outperforms potentially and this causes supplemental waves to be dramatically impacted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: +FRZRN here, Getting bad out on the side roads and parking lots, Temps have not moved much, 27°F. 31.5F on the hill. Mod rn here in pwm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, Lava Rock said: 31.5F on the hill. Mod rn here in pwm. No ZR in PWM? Airport is reporting 31F and FZRA....after 29F last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's become nice in southern CT. Skies have become partly sunny...just wish it was 10-20....40°F warmer out. Very April like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, George001 said: A week ago, I forecasted severe blizzard conditions in eastern mass due to the North Atlantic blocking in place. Today is the day I forecasted the blizzard conditions to occur, it is raining outside right now. Treat yourself to a Dairy Queen Candy Cane Blizzard because it is the only blizzard that you will see this winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, George001 said: A week ago, I forecasted severe blizzard conditions in eastern mass due to the North Atlantic blocking in place. Today is the day I forecasted the blizzard conditions to occur, it is raining outside right now. At least you got it correct that there would be a storm off the coast and parts of Maine will end up with some decent snow from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: lol GFS has a 150+ knots MLJ streak develop. Anyways, nice to see Sunday is still being signaled. After that though...the northern stream just looks like crap. It's a sheared mess of garbage. Really tough to envision anything working out in that. Even southern stream is kind of garbage. Sunday may be our best hope Wiz, with the way everything is so convoluted…I wouldn’t take any model output for 4 plus days out with any credibility. Gonna flip flop all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No ZR in PWM? Airport is reporting 31F and FZRA....after 29F last hour. It has to be ZR there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 I think 12-24 is probably our best shot in SNE. We cheer for that. I suppose gfs option is there, but I wonder if that sort of falls apart or refocused on a later date. At least 12/24 had ratio potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, George001 said: A week ago, I forecasted severe blizzard conditions in eastern mass due to the North Atlantic blocking in place. Today is the day I forecasted the blizzard conditions to occur, it is raining outside right now. You need to post less, and read/listen more. And please stop with the blizzzards already. If and when a big storm pops up…then you can start fantasizing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Ukie is also decent for 12/24....prob 1-3" over most of SNE. A little on the juicy side but not that out of step with 12z models so far. Where it is out of step is 12/25....it has solid advisory snows for a good chunk of CT on Xmas morning...like a solid 2-4". Lighter amounts into MA/S NH/S VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1.5” of surprisingly heavy snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: You need to post less, and read/listen more. And please stop with the blizzzards already. If and when a big storm pops up…then you can start fantasizing. Honestly I would feel better if he called for flurries if and when a storm pops up lol.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No ZR in PWM? Airport is reporting 31F and FZRA....after 29F last hour. probably is. I was just lazy and looking outside from my cube. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's become nice in southern CT. Skies have become partly sunny...just wish it was 10-20....40°F warmer out. Sunshine just broke out here in Enfield. Cloudless right overhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Honestly I would feel better if he called for flurries if and when a storm pops up lol.. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Picked up an inch so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 43 minutes ago, George001 said: A week ago, I forecasted severe blizzard conditions in eastern mass due to the North Atlantic blocking in place. Today is the day I forecasted the blizzard conditions to occur, it is raining outside right now. If you change your forecasting technique to simply predict whether or not there will be a severe blizzard on any given day, and say "there will not be a severe blizzard today," you will be right 99.9+ % of the time! Think of the possibilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 34.2 degrees here at 10 feet. I expect still a bit colder at the actual surface. Precip has ended here. Waiting on skies to clear and temps could shoot up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Very April like Maybe even a few ticks warmer than April 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wiz, with the way everything is so convoluted…I wouldn’t take any model output for 4 plus days out with any credibility. Gonna flip flop all over the place. Very true. But the jest is to tamper back high hopes (at least on a personal level). There has been alot of excitement generated about the upcoming pattern and the potential it may hold...but we could very, very easily end up with crap...like total crap. With the crap a result of a dry pattern or hell...even quite a bit above-average. But like you said, its so convoluted and chaotic that it's really anyone's guess as to what happens. There is just zero confidence moving into these upcoming few weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Maybe even a few ticks warmer than April Very true. But the jest is to tamper back high hopes (at least on a personal level). There has been alot of excitement generated about the upcoming pattern and the potential it may hold...but we could very, very easily end up with crap...like total crap. With the crap a result of a dry pattern or hell...even quite a bit above-average. But like you said, its so convoluted and chaotic that it's really anyone's guess as to what happens. There is just zero confidence moving into these upcoming few weeks. Likely the SE ridge links up with the blocking given massive RNA that is only trending stronger. That would be a blowtorch pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Maybe even a few ticks warmer than April Very true. But the jest is to tamper back high hopes (at least on a personal level). There has been alot of excitement generated about the upcoming pattern and the potential it may hold...but we could very, very easily end up with crap...like total crap. With the crap a result of a dry pattern or hell...even quite a bit above-average. But like you said, its so convoluted and chaotic that it's really anyone's guess as to what happens. There is just zero confidence moving into these upcoming few weeks. If we get past NY still chasing our proverbial tails, then I'm going to start to sour on this in a hurry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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